Russia - Ukraine war

[Vertigo Swirl]

I was just wondering... if Scotland votes for independence and decides to retain its nuclear base at Fasslane and rejoined the EU, would it be OK for England to launch an all out invasion and flatten Edinburgh and Glasgow a few years later, on the pretext that Scotland posed an existential threat and were being racist and beastly towards English residents still living in Scotland? 

[G-Unit]

I was just wondering... if Scotland votes for independence and decides to retain its nuclear base at Fasslane and rejoined the EU, would it be OK for England to launch an all out invasion and flatten Edinburgh and Glasgow a few years later, on the pretext that Scotland posed an existential threat and were being racist and beastly towards English residents still living in Scotland?

Could Scotland afford to fund and operate nuclear submarines by itself?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Could Scotland afford to fund and operate nuclear submarines by itself?

No, it was a rhetorical question, one you've obviously decided to ignore.  To be fair if Scotland retained nuclear missiles England would be quite suicidal to invade, so same question but take the nukes out of the Scottish equation.  What possible justification could England ever have for invading Scotland?   To return to the glory days of the United Kingdom?  Because the Scots were discriminating against and treating the English that lived there as second-class citizens?  Because Scotland had joined the EU with its new shiny EU army  and England felt ganged up against?

[Vertigo Swirl]

To provide some balance to all the Putin fawning on here.  No need to thank me for providing this interesting article from today’s Times free of charge, written by a figure of fun for you to deride, Mr William Hague - I expect he made it all up.:

Putin’s hollow regime could quickly collapse
William Hague

On the night Russia invaded Ukraine, I was reading a new book, The Worst Military Leaders in History, edited by John M Jennings and Chuck Steele. The monumental failings of leadership described range from the well-known death of General Custer and all his men to the less remembered Athenian leader, Nikias, whose disastrous attempt to capture Syracuse led to the collapse of the entire Athenian empire. Three weeks on, it seems like a second edition might have to include the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoygu, and his top brass.

The missile attack on Sunday on a base in western Ukraine and the horrendous shelling of cities reminds us that the Russian armed forces wield colossal firepower, and their ability to get going again should not be underestimated. Nevertheless, in 19 days they have failed to achieve their objectives despite possessing vastly superior forces, suffered huge losses of men and material, turned most of the world against them by indiscriminate attacks on civilians, and rendered the political aim of their war — to unite Ukrainians with Russians as “one people” — permanently unattainable. That has to count as abysmal leadership of historic proportions. It is important to understand why this has happened, and what it means for what happens next.

Some of Russia’s military underperformance reflects the fact that the huge modernisation of its forces is still work in progress. The much-vaunted T-14 tank is not yet in service and the Uran-9 unmanned combat ground vehicle performed badly in Syria. But Russia is hardly unique in experiencing delays in defence procurement. Much more seriously, the tactics chosen by commanders have been wasteful of resources and their soldiers’ lives, advancing in dense groups of vehicles, sticking to roads, failing to screen their flanks and leaving airborne troops isolated. All this has resulted in Russian casualties probably exceeding those suffered by the US in six years of war in Iraq.

Added to these elementary failures of military command is evidence of poor maintenance of equipment, leading to many breakdowns and sophisticated weapons being abandoned in farmers’ field. Perhaps such failings of military culture and standards are the product of a system based heavily on greed, selfishness and corruption right up to the Kremlin itself. But by far the most serious problems are on a strategic scale.

Russia’s inability to establish command of the air over Ukraine has mystified most observers, considering the acquisition of hundreds of modern warplanes since 2010. The best potential explanation has come from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI): that the Russian air force lacks the “practical experience of how to plan, brief and co-ordinate complex air operations involving tens or hundreds of assets in a high-threat environment”. They can fly singly or in pairs, but their pilots have not been trained to fly in larger, sequenced, formations, except for fly-pasts at parades. They look impressive, but do not have the training hours or high-quality simulators that are standard for Nato pilots.

Suddenly, we begin to discern the nature of Putin’s state: a regime that has prized the hardware of power while neglecting the software, that can stage parades which frighten observers and drop random bombs on terrified civilians but would struggle against a powerful adversary; a system ostensibly strong but hollow inside — the natural outcome of being mired in corruption and led by a bully, but only now so clearly revealed.

It is also telling that the Russian high command only informed tactical commanders on the ground that they were going to war, and what their objectives would be, the day before the invasion. This led to woeful co-ordination and planning. In the words of RUSI experts again: “Working out which units a formation is to collaborate with in order to set up encrypted radios takes time; studying the map and assessing routes takes time ... The failure to give subordinates time to prepare reveals a dysfunctional command system in which troops are regarded as an expendable resource in the pursuit of objectives.”

Here again we can see the characteristics of Putin’s rule: the callous carelessness with life, even on his own side, and the need to fool even his own army about what was planned. Tens of thousands of Russian troops probably believed the lie that they were on exercises. Meanwhile, the Kremlin was believing the intelligence assurances of the FSB that Ukrainian resistance would be weak, which is why senior FSB officers are now under arrest. This is a system in which the high command lies to their forces and the spy agencies lie to the high command. To justify what is happening, the entire power structure lies to the outside world and the Russian people. My old sparring partner, foreign minister Lavrov, even managed to assert last week that Russia had not attacked Ukraine at all.

The lies go downwards, upwards and outwards. It is impossible for the soldier at the front or a general in Moscow to know the truth. That is the web that Putin has spun, and it has important implications for the future.

Be clear, this does not mean the Russian armed forces are spent. They have been regrouping and will no doubt learn lessons. And Moscow’s possession of a vast nuclear arsenal remains a central factor in global politics. Yet the weaknesses of the Russian military mirror the political system behind it, a hollow structure that will lose its reputation and respect very quickly when its thieving and selfish reality is revealed to its own people. That may take months or years, but Putin’s henchmen would be well advised to start thinking about their escape route to Pyongyang.

More immediately, the initial military errors and systemic failings mean that Russia cannot now achieve its goal of a pliant Ukraine, however much it widens the war and however many innocent people it kills. Even Moscow’s close friends can see that. Belarus is quietly striving to stay out of the war. China is host to a surprising debate. One leading Shanghai academic has been allowed to publish a paper calling Russia’s “special military operation” an “irreversible mistake” and saying Putin’s best option is to end the war in peace talks. This does not mean these countries will change their approach, but it does show they can see the truth.

Dare the Russian generals tell Putin how much has gone wrong, that multiple military failures have added to a political disaster for him? Have they explained, as talks grind on, that they can only offer a drawn-out and bloody war? They should tell him the truth, that he should now seek peace. They probably won’t, and their place in the pantheon of the Worst Military Leaders in History awaits them.

[Vertigo Swirl]

https://homesforukraine.campaign.gov.uk/

[G-Unit]

No, it was a rhetorical question, one you've obviously decided to ignore.  To be fair if Scotland retained nuclear missiles England would be quite suicidal to invade, so same question but take the nukes out of the Scottish equation.  What possible justification could England ever have for invading Scotland?   To return to the glory days of the United Kingdom?  Because the Scots were discriminating against and treating the English that lived there as second-class citizens?  Because Scotland had joined the EU with its new shiny EU army  and England felt ganged up against?

I'd call it nonsensical myself. When military action is taken justifications are always given, but they're not always the actual reasons for the action. Think Blair's wmd's.

[Vertigo Swirl]

I'd call it nonsensical myself. When military action is taken justifications are always given, but they're not always the actual reasons for the action. Think Blair's wmd's.

What were the actual reasons in that case then? 

[Vertigo Swirl]

I'd call it nonsensical myself. When military action is taken justifications are always given, but they're not always the actual reasons for the action. Think Blair's wmd's.

Yes it is nonsensical, just as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is utterly nonsensical. IMO.

[colsville]

Germans marching ought scare him.

Obviously that's a sarcastic comment (I think), but in reality the German reaction to the Russian invasion will have rocked Russia to its core, and even China will have been totally shocked at how Germany and the EU reacted.

And the fact that Germany's foreign policy changes have met with public support will worry China and Russia.

Germany was effectively an ally of Russia just 3 or 4 weeks ago, refusing to allow UK planes to fly in its airspace when we flew arms over to Ukraine, addicted to its oil and gas.

This disjointed, dysfunctional relationship that EU countries have with each other, with the UK, and with the institute of the EU itself, is what - in part - emboldens both Russia and China to be the international 'trolls' that they are.

The sudden hardening up of foreign policy both by EU countries and the EU itself hasn't just shocked Russia, it's shocked the whole world.

But make no mistake, Putin is scared, he is scared sh**less over this.   This was meant to be over in 48 hours, after imposing a puppet government in Ukraine, the same system as Belarus.  But Ukraine isn't Belarus.

This has been a catastrophic mistake by Putin and it will end his career, possibly his life.

His days are now numbered, and his levels of paranoia will be through the roof.  And as each day passes more of his war machinery gets destroyed, more soldiers get killed.  Russia becomes weaker...and weaker....and weaker......

Whilst Europe has risen up, like a phoenix from the ashes, and is getting stronger.....and stronger.......and stronger. 

 

[barrier]

Obviously that's a sarcastic comment (I think), but in reality the German reaction to the Russian invasion will have rocked Russia to its core, and even China will have been totally shocked at how Germany and the EU reacted.

And the fact that Germany's foreign policy changes have met with public support will worry China and Russia.

Germany was effectively an ally of Russia just 3 or 4 weeks ago, refusing to allow UK planes to fly in its airspace when we flew arms over to Ukraine, addicted to its oil and gas.

This disjointed, dysfunctional relationship that EU countries have with each other, with the UK, and with the institute of the EU itself, is what - in part - emboldens both Russia and China to be the international 'trolls' that they are.

The sudden hardening up of foreign policy both by EU countries and the EU itself hasn't just shocked Russia, it's shocked the whole world.

But make no mistake, Putin is scared, he is scared sh**less over this.   This was meant to be over in 48 hours, after imposing a puppet government in Ukraine, the same system as Belarus.  But Ukraine isn't Belarus.

This has been a catastrophic mistake by Putin and it will end his career, possibly his life.

His days are now numbered, and his levels of paranoia will be through the roof.  And as each day passes more of his war machinery gets destroyed, more soldiers get killed.  Russia becomes weaker...and weaker....and weaker......

Whilst Europe has risen up, like a phoenix from the ashes, and is getting stronger.....and stronger.......and stronger.

Which will be of no comfort at all to the dead and dying in Ukraine.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Obviously that's a sarcastic comment (I think), but in reality the German reaction to the Russian invasion will have rocked Russia to its core, and even China will have been totally shocked at how Germany and the EU reacted.

And the fact that Germany's foreign policy changes have met with public support will worry China and Russia.

Germany was effectively an ally of Russia just 3 or 4 weeks ago, refusing to allow UK planes to fly in its airspace when we flew arms over to Ukraine, addicted to its oil and gas.

This disjointed, dysfunctional relationship that EU countries have with each other, with the UK, and with the institute of the EU itself, is what - in part - emboldens both Russia and China to be the international 'trolls' that they are.

The sudden hardening up of foreign policy both by EU countries and the EU itself hasn't just shocked Russia, it's shocked the whole world.

But make no mistake, Putin is scared, he is scared sh**less over this.   This was meant to be over in 48 hours, after imposing a puppet government in Ukraine, the same system as Belarus.  But Ukraine isn't Belarus.

This has been a catastrophic mistake by Putin and it will end his career, possibly his life.

His days are now numbered, and his levels of paranoia will be through the roof.  And as each day passes more of his war machinery gets destroyed, more soldiers get killed.  Russia becomes weaker...and weaker....and weaker......

Whilst Europe has risen up, like a phoenix from the ashes, and is getting stronger.....and stronger.......and stronger.

I agree with much of your post but don’t  you think the worse this is going for Putin, the more likely he will do something with catastrophic consequences for the whole of Europe, if not the world? 

[Wonderfulspam]

US tells allies China signalled openness to provide Russia with military support

Moscow requested equipment including surface-to-air missiles, according to diplomatic cables




The US has told allies that China signalled its willingness to provide military assistance after Russia requested equipment including surface-to-air missiles to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to officials familiar with American diplomatic cables on the exchange.

Two officials familiar with the content of the cables said Washington had told allies that Russia had asked China for five types of equipment, including the surface-to-air missiles. The other categories were drones, intelligence-related equipment, armoured vehicles, and vehicles used for logistics and support.

The cables, which were sent by the US state department to allies in Europe and Asia, were not specific about the level or timing of any assistance that may be provided to Moscow by Beijing. One of the officials said the US had not provided allies with the intelligence underpinning its assessments.

The Financial Times reported on Sunday that Russia had made the request for assistance at some point after the start of the now three-week conflict.

The Russian request and Chinese response have sounded alarm bells in the White House. US officials believe China is trying to help Russia while its top officials publicly call for a diplomatic solution to the war.

The Chinese embassy in the US on Sunday said it had no knowledge of any Russian request or positive Chinese response to Moscow. Russia on Monday also denied making any request to China.

A senior US defence official declined to say if China had provided military support after Russia’s request, but said the Pentagon was watching the situation “very, very closely”.

“If China does choose to materially support Russia in this war, there will likely be consequences for China,” the defence official said.

The official added: “We have seen China basically give tacit approval to what Russia is doing by refusing to join sanctions, by blaming the west and the United States for assistance that we’re giving Ukraine [and] by claiming they wanted to see a peaceful outcome but essentially doing nothing to achieve it.”

Eric Sayers, an Asia security expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said the list of equipment requested by Russia was “shocking” and “speaks to Moscow’s desperation”.

“If Beijing transfer anything on the list I would expect a strong bipartisan push for sanctions and export controls focused on [China’s People’s Liberation Army], but that would only be the start,” Sayers added.

Evan Medeiros, a China expert at Georgetown University and former top White House Asia adviser, said it would be “deeply worrisome” if China transferred weapons to Russia.

“It would be a game-changer for global geopolitics,” Medeiros added. “We risk going back to the days of the Sino-Soviet alliance of the 1950s. Ukraine may become the first proxy conflict in a new cold war.”

On Monday, Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, met in Rome with Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy official, which another senior US official described as “an intense seven-hour session reflecting the gravity of the moment”.

The US official said the meeting included an “extensive conversation” about Russia and Ukraine, adding that the two officials had also held a one-to-one meeting without their aides.

The official declined to comment on the FT’s reporting that China had responded positively to Russia’s request for military assistance. But she said Washington had “deep concerns with China’s alignment with Russia”.

Asked about the report, Jen Psaki, White House press secretary, said: “I am not in a position to confirm or detail any intelligence from here at this point in time.” The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the types of equipment detailed in the cables.

On Monday, state department spokesperson Ned Price said: “We are watching very closely to the extent to which the [People’s Republic of China] or any country in the world provides support, material, economic, financial, rhetorical or otherwise, to this war of choice that President [Vladimir] Putin is waging.

“We have been very clear, both privately with Beijing, publicly with Beijing, that there would be consequences for any such support.”

Ahead of the meeting between Sullivan and Yang, the Biden administration last week asked European allies to amplify their message to China that Beijing should not help Russia circumvent sanctions, according to one European official.

China has portrayed itself as a neutral actor despite its increasingly close ties to Moscow. But Chinese media and diplomats have offered support for Russia’s justification for the invasion and blamed the US and Nato for the conflict.

Chinese media have also repeated unsubstantiated Russian claims that the US helped Ukraine build biological weapons labs.

Beijing and Moscow have grown closer in recent years, largely due to their shared disdain for the US and western military alliances such as Nato. Last month, Xi Jinping, Chinese president, and Putin signed a statement in Beijing that described their increasingly close partnership as having “no limits”.

https://www.ft.com/content/52ea7aab-f8d1-46b6-9d66-18545c5ef9b9

[Wonderfulspam]

I agree with much of your post but don’t  you think the worse this is going for Putin, the more likely he will do something with catastrophic consequences for the whole of Europe, if not the world?

Looks like China might be willing to support him in doing so aswell.

[Wonderfulspam]

To think that hundreds of protesters were slaughtered in 2014 in their quest to join Europe, leave Russia & be protected by Nato, only for Nato to leave them out in the cold to be murdered in even greater numbers years later.

It's ridiculous, Nato should just never have been put on the table, anywhere, ever. The U.S knew the risks I think, but also thought that if they stuck democracy on Russia's doorstep it would eventually spread into Russia, topple Putin & the problem would solve itself.

[Wonderfulspam]

Obviously that's a sarcastic comment (I think), but in reality the German reaction to the Russian invasion will have rocked Russia to its core, and even China will have been totally shocked at how Germany and the EU reacted.

And the fact that Germany's foreign policy changes have met with public support will worry China and Russia.

Germany was effectively an ally of Russia just 3 or 4 weeks ago, refusing to allow UK planes to fly in its airspace when we flew arms over to Ukraine, addicted to its oil and gas.

This disjointed, dysfunctional relationship that EU countries have with each other, with the UK, and with the institute of the EU itself, is what - in part - emboldens both Russia and China to be the international 'trolls' that they are.

The sudden hardening up of foreign policy both by EU countries and the EU itself hasn't just shocked Russia, it's shocked the whole world.

But make no mistake, Putin is scared, he is scared sh**less over this.   This was meant to be over in 48 hours, after imposing a puppet government in Ukraine, the same system as Belarus.  But Ukraine isn't Belarus.

This has been a catastrophic mistake by Putin and it will end his career, possibly his life.

His days are now numbered, and his levels of paranoia will be through the roof.  And as each day passes more of his war machinery gets destroyed, more soldiers get killed.  Russia becomes weaker...and weaker....and weaker......

Whilst Europe has risen up, like a phoenix from the ashes, and is getting stronger.....and stronger.......and stronger.

His days are now numbered

But how would anyone get rid of him?

Can't vote him out, can't protest him out, assassinate him you might only embolden Russian anti western sentiment & his replacement could be even worse (somehow).
Or, would you want to be the senior member of his cabinet who turns to him & says 'I think you've f..ked up' knowing full well you'd later be administered with a nerve agent?

How do you solve a problem like Putin?

I don't think anyone really knows a viable solution.