So what are the various scenarios available to us?

[sadie]

Thanks for your corrections, Sadie. I have given my magnifying glass a good polish.

Now, I am still not quite convinced, however, that he definitely saw Jane.

He saw her

First of all, Jane - not that we can rely on her eyesight for everything - seemed to be sure that she didn't see his face, which presumably she would have done, even just a glimpse of it, if he had turned his head. She said several times that he was looking forwards.
 
A glimpse would not have been enough to do that drawing correctly.  Better to leave the face blank than put in the wrong features, as I am sure that you would appreciate

Could he have bent forward from further back, peeking into the road before corssing, so as not to be seen looking? Perhaps. But why, having seen the danger, would he have walked out into such a treacherous road? this is the question that bothers me.


The road was not treacherous in  any way.  He forgot the light .  He was only bothered about getting away from Jane at that moment  .. and not having his face seen.

It is hard enough to imagine why he would choose to illuminate and expose himself by walking across that road, even if he didn't see anyone before he started crossing; even more so if he did.

If I understand your theory correctly, he was crossing over towards where the car would be. Quite a dangerous rendezvous point, in view of the T9 and others emerging from the OC entrance. And apparently no plan B to meet at another place in the likely event of their bumping into people on Rua Martins.

Despite your keen interest, you have not been reading what i have written Sherlock.  The pick-up, IMO, was to be almost immediately by the entrance to the Northern car park of the OC.

Wouldn't there have been better options for meeting places?

Sherlock will ponder this one a bit longer....

[sadie]

I see what you mean, Sadie. He had to make sure she didn't see his face.

But it doesn't answer the question of why crossing that hazardous road was in the plan in the first place...

It wasn't in any plan sherlock.  I do believe that you haven't even read my theory.  Too many mistakes for you to have done that.

Now Good night.  No doubt speak to you tomorrow

[Sherlock Holmes]

It wasn't in any plan sherlock.  I do believe that you haven't even read my theory.  Too many mistakes for you to have done that.

Now Good night.  No doubt speak to you tomorrow

I quite understand where bundleman and wetpants were supposed to be meeting originally, according to your theory, Sadie.

My question is why pick such a vulnerable area in the first place? Why park in the first instance near the OC entrance? Why centre things around Rua Martins?

[Eleanor]

I quite understand where bundleman and wetpants were supposed to be meeting originally, according to your theory, Sadie.

My question is why pick such a vulnerable area in the first place? Why park in the first instance near the OC entrance? Why centre things around Rua Martins?

If he had gone in the opposite direction he would almost immediately have come to a much larger main road.

[sadie]

If he had gone in the opposite direction he would almost immediately have come to a much larger main road.

Exactly.  On the ball as ever Eleanor.

And as I said before, he came to JT corner cos he couldn't understand why the get-away driver hadn't come ... and he was dead anxious.  Not likeling the feeling of standing around with a stolen little girl in his arms.


IMO of course.

[Eleanor]

Exactly.  On the ball as ever Eleanor.

And as I said before, he came to JT corner cos he couldn't understand why the get-away driver hadn't come ... and he was dead anxious.  Not likeling the feeling of standing around with a stolen little girl in his arms.


IMO of course.

He went the only way he could, Sadie.  He had no choice.

[sadie]

He went the only way he could, Sadie.  He had no choice.

Exactly Eleanor



Sherlock, you seem to be missing obvious things.
And using woolley language.

What do you mean by "parked near the OC entrance" ?  Does you mean opposite the Tapas reception ?... or do you mean by the drive in to the Northern car park of OC, or by the actually entrance to the flats by that walled pathway at the entrance to all the flats ?

[Sherlock Holmes]

Exactly.  On the ball as ever Eleanor.

And as I said before, he came to JT corner cos he couldn't understand why the get-away driver hadn't come ... and he was dead anxious.  Not likeling the feeling of standing around with a stolen little girl in his arms.


IMO of course.

Thank you Sadie. I am not spelling it out enough.

I am referring to bundleman's accomplice being parked in the car park right opposite the reception area. It was such an exposed spot: in full view of many apartments, and vulnerable to being witnessed by people going in and out of the reception entrance. This was not the designated pick-up point, I appreciate that, but it was a  very dangerous place to be hovering about, nonetheless.

Yes, there was a main road in the other direction, Elanor, as you point out. But in relative terms, Rua Martins  carried significantly more danger for the abductors. It was the very road where the people they were trying hardest to avoid -T9 - were using! Everything is relative.

(And why wouldn't they want to be near a main road? Surely covering as much distance away from Luz in the shortest time possible would have made most sense.)

Getting back to your theory, Sadie, the fact that T9 members appeared in the street at the 'wrong' time, as I understand, was the very reason that things went awry.

By this logic, the abductors appear to have been banking on having a completely clear street for the duration of their operation. Otherwise panic stations. However swift their operation could well have been, that just wasn't a realistic expectation. The abductors themselves would have known that, because they had been watching T9 movements for days. Any one of T9 could have left their seats at any point - and they did.

[Lace]

Thank you Sadie. I am not spelling it out enough.

I am referring to bundleman's accomplice being parked in the car park right opposite the reception area. It was such an exposed spot: in full view of many apartments, and vulnerable to being witnessed by people going in and out of the reception entrance. This was not the designated pick-up point, I appreciate that, but it was a  very dangerous place to be hovering about, nonetheless.

Yes, there was a main road in the other direction, Elanor, as you point out. But in relative terms, Rua Martins  carried significantly more danger for the abductors. It was the very road where the people they were trying hardest to avoid -T9 - were using! Everything is relative.

(And why wouldn't they want to be near a main road? Surely covering as much distance away from Luz in the shortest time possible would have made most sense.)

Getting back to your theory, Sadie, the fact that T9 members appeared in the street at the 'wrong' time, as I understand, was the very reason that things went awry.

By this logic, the abductors appear to have been banking on having a completely clear street for the duration of their operation. Otherwise panic stations. However swift their operation could well have been, that just wasn't a realistic expectation. The abductors themselves would have known that, because they had been watching T9 movements for days. Any one of T9 could have left their seats at any point - and they did.


Sherlock -
Someone had already checked the children when Gerry went for his check.   How would the abductor expect that to happen?    Then how would the abductor expect Jez to turn up for a chat with Gerry?

How could the abductor have know that Jane's child would be sick and that Jane would be going to check at that time?

[Sherlock Holmes]

Sherlock -
Someone had already checked the children when Gerry went for his check.   How would the abductor expect that to happen?    Then how would the abductor expect Jez to turn up for a chat with Gerry?

How could the abductor have know that Jane's child would be sick and that Jane would be going to check at that time?

Hello Lace,

That's exactly my point. The abductor(s) could not control what happened that night.

There were all the designated checks, about which the abductor (s) would have had a fair idea. But there would always be the possibility of unseen eventualities, such as the examples you give above. Because of Jane's sick child, and parents checking on each other's children, pedestrian traffic on Rua Martins was much heavier that night than the abductor (s) had planned for. Too dangerous a place to driving up, walking across - whatever you like.

The abductor (s) could not have been anticipating these specific eventualities, no. But they should have formulated a plan flexible enough to account for the fact that at least one member of T9 was likely to have appeared on the scene at some point, whatever the reason may have been.

[Lace]

Abductor's take risks too Sherlock otherwise no child would be abducted.

As far as the abductor knew a check had been done by Gerry,  Gerry had left all was clear to take Madeleine.  Unfortunately things changed very quickly.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Abductor's take risks too Sherlock otherwise no child would be abducted.

As far as the abductor knew a check had been done by Gerry,  Gerry had left all was clear to take Madeleine.  Unfortunately things changed very quickly.

Very true, Lace.

However, I am referring in my posts here to the question of the missing car, and the so-called 'professionalism' of the accomplice driver who leaves bundleman in the lurch, as per Sadie's theory.

Sadie's suggestion that the accomplice with the car fled the scene upon seeing members of T9 in the street is odd to me, because, even if the coast had been clear when bundleman entered the apartment, it was to be expected that members of T9 could have appeared at any point. Why would this more than likely occurrence have been such a shock to the accomplice as to make him flee? And why wouldn't the abductors have come up with a plan B in case this happened, or factored it into plan A?

I am trying understand why a 'professional' team would behave like this, and indeed, if there was ever a team on the ground in the first place.

[Lace]

I think the abductor was going to meet someone then make his way to the beach area.   This person could have had a car.

[Sherlock Holmes]

I think the abductor was going to meet someone then make his way to the beach area.   This person could have had a car.

The problem is the Smith sighting, where he still doesn't appear to have located a car, 45 minutes later.

Here's what I said about that in another thread (re Sadie's theory, August 16th):

But now let's turn to bundleman himself. Did he handle things any better than wetpants (Sadie's scarpering driver)? In the absence of any certainties as to what Bundleman did in the time immediately following the events of 9.15, let's fast-forward to the Smith sighting. It is almost inconceivable that parading around the town with Madeleine, circa the very time her disappearance was being discovered, could have constituted anyone's plan. It's one thing walking across a road (Rua Martins); quite another to head for the nightspots (the social area near the church which bundleman appeared to be walking towards when he passed Family Smith). Would a jewel thief run the streets amok after a major heist, casting his treasures skyward?

I agree with Sadie that, if there was a team, something went wrong. The question is, what?

[Lace]

The problem is the Smith sighting, where he still doesn't appear to have located a car, 45 minutes later.

Here's what I said about that in another thread (re Sadie's theory, August 16th):

But now let's turn to bundleman himself. Did he handle things any better than wetpants (Sadie's scarpering driver)? In the absence of any certainties as to what Bundleman did in the time immediately following the events of 9.15, let's fast-forward to the Smith sighting. It is almost inconceivable that parading around the town with Madeleine, circa the very time her disappearance was being discovered, could have constituted anyone's plan. It's one thing walking across a road (Rua Martins); quite another to head for the nightspots (the social area near the church which bundleman appeared to be walking towards when he passed Family Smith). Would a jewel thief run the streets amok after a major heist, casting his treasures skyward?

I agree with Sadie that, if there was a team, something went wrong. The question is, what?