The application of Occam's Razor principle

[patb]

I have only found one reference to the application of this principle by a profiler to this case and cant see it mentioned on the forum via a search. Has anyone seen any formal application? My own research lead me to the NSPCC website that states that during 2011-12, in 67% of cases, the parents were focussed on  by the police as the prime suspects within a child murder case.

[imustpointout]

does that mean that in 33% of cases they weren't?

[Cariad]

I have only found one reference to the application of this principle by a profiler to this case and cant see it mentioned on the forum via a search. Has anyone seen any formal application? My own research lead me to the NSPCC website that states that during 2011-12, in 67% of cases, the parents were focussed on  by the police as the prime suspects within a child murder case.

Both Sherlock Holmes and I have tried. Neither of us got very far unfortunately. I'd be really interested if you tried it. Half the problem is that the verifiable facts are so few. The second you try and separate fact from fiction, you'll find entirely opposing information and have to start making assumptions. 



Welcome by the way 

[jassi]

does that mean that in 33% of cases they weren't?

Some cases are bound to be clear cut, without any room for doubt.

[patb]

Detectives are trained to follow this principle and experienced detectives should be following it almost as second nature. The current Scotland Yard team will be both aware of the principle (having applied it in previous cases) and the clear statistical  trend analysis when it comes to child death/manslaughters. On the basis that the child had come to some harm, you need some strong evidence to ignore the 67% trend from previous cases and follow the 33%. I cant see that strong evidence at the moment and, therefore, the priciple would dictate that a significant part of the investigation would follow the pattern of the 67%.

[jassi]

No. People's views should be openly discussed . If the subject matter is too delicate for you, then you needn't participate.

[Carana]

I have only found one reference to the application of this principle by a profiler to this case and cant see it mentioned on the forum via a search. Has anyone seen any formal application? My own research lead me to the NSPCC website that states that during 2011-12, in 67% of cases, the parents were focussed on  by the police as the prime suspects within a child murder case.

Welcome.


It's hard to know what that is based on. Do you have any more information?

Does it concern children who are known to have been murdered? Or missing children?

Wouldn't the nearest be part of the focus in any event as a ground-clearing exercise even if circumstances rapidly show that they couldn't have been involved?

[Mr Gray]

I have only found one reference to the application of this principle by a profiler to this case and cant see it mentioned on the forum via a search. Has anyone seen any formal application? My own research lead me to the NSPCC website that states that during 2011-12, in 67% of cases, the parents were focussed on  by the police as the prime suspects within a child murder case.

this case has been going on for 6 years and this point has been extensively discussed..I for one do not intend to explain it all again

[Mr Gray]

but...SY will no doubt be aware of this and they are treating this case as a stranger abduction

[icabodcrane]

I have only found one reference to the application of this principle by a profiler to this case and cant see it mentioned on the forum via a search. Has anyone seen any formal application? My own research lead me to the NSPCC website that states that during 2011-12, in 67% of cases, the parents were focussed on  by the police as the prime suspects within a child murder case.

I think your suggestion could make for an interesting thread

...  and welcome to the forum patb

[C.Edwards]

Can I just ask the obvious question - and I think I know the answer already - are you *the* Pat Brown, criminal profiler or is "patb" just a coincidental username and you're calld "pat butcher" or something?

[Sherlock Holmes]

I have only found one reference to the application of this principle by a profiler to this case and cant see it mentioned on the forum via a search. Has anyone seen any formal application? My own research lead me to the NSPCC website that states that during 2011-12, in 67% of cases, the parents were focussed on  by the police as the prime suspects within a child murder case.

Welcome, Pat

Occam's razor is an important principle, but at the same time we have to remember that statistics are only an investigative guide. We don't judge a case according to statistics, and we certainly don't convict.

Statistics here, as you allude to, function in helping police form testable hypotheses.

At the moment the suggestion that SY never asked themselves the question of the McCanns' possible guilt and did not investigate for it is an assumption.

[Victoria]

I have only found one reference to the application of this principle by a profiler to this case and cant see it mentioned on the forum via a search. Has anyone seen any formal application? My own research lead me to the NSPCC website that states that during 2011-12, in 67% of cases, the parents were focussed on  by the police as the prime suspects within a child murder case.

I think you might be confusing a hypothesis that requires the fewest assumptions in order to be correct, and a hypothesis formulated by looking at statistics in comparable cases. Not the same thing.

[Mr Gray]

I think you might be confusing a hypothesis that requires the fewest assumptions in order to be correct, and a hypothesis formulated by looking at statistics in comparable cases. Not the same thing.

Looks like she's made a few fundamental errors so it probably is pat brown

[Rachel Granada]

Welcome, Pat

Occam's razor is an important principle, but at the same time we have to remember that statistics are only an investigative guide. We don't judge a case according to statistics, and we certainly don't convict.

Statistics here, as you allude to, function in helping police form testable hypotheses.

At the moment the suggestion that SY never asked themselves the question of the McCanns' possible guilt and did not investigate for it is an assumption.

Sensible post, Sherlock.  I would have thought that the Yard would have started with the parents and friends then moved on once they were eliminated.  This ties in with DCI Redwood's July 4th statement that the parents and friends were not persons of interest,'

OT: Not made it down to the library yet :-(

OK back on topic now, promise!