Author Topic: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?  (Read 156097 times)

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Alfred R Jones

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #495 on: February 24, 2016, 02:30:28 PM »
It sounds like you are calling me a liar Alfie. You do know that is against forum rules don't you ?
You'd better report me then, hadn't you.  You do realise that your earlier comment "course you don't  8(0(*" also sounds like you're calling me a liar, so perhaps I should report you too.

Offline G-Unit

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #496 on: February 24, 2016, 02:32:34 PM »
Neither of those E-fits look even remotely like Gerry McCann.  God knows where that idea came from.

If they didn't look like Gerry why not release them to the press and ask for people to come forward with information? Surely that was an opportunity lost? They had them in November 2008 and they didn't reach the public until 2013.

The excuse about 'no active investigation at the time' doesn't wash. They by-passed the active PJ investigation in January 2008 with the Gail Cooper e-fit;

Yesterday, in what Kate and Gerry McCann hope will spark a breakthrough, the couple's official spokesman released, for the first time, an image of a suspect to the media and public...... It had all the features of an official police press conference: a solemn appeal for sightings, delivered with detective-speak phrases such as "eliminating suspects in the investigation".....
 21 January 2008
Source: The Scotsman
Location: Scotland

Did the PJ agree with what they did? Well they were told it was going to happen by 'call me Stu' after he was informed;

I was informed that it was probable that the photo fit made by Gail Cooper would reach the press during the weekend. I will inform you of the consequences of this next week in spite of the fact that we are not in any way involved in this.

Hope you are well.

Speak soon.

Stu
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/POWERPOINT.htm

What did the PJ think?

Carlos Anjos, president of the Judicial Police Inspectors Union, said: "All sense has been completely lost."
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id67.html
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Result = happy posting.
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Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #497 on: February 24, 2016, 03:05:00 PM »
He still produced e-fits that looked like Gerry McCann. E-fits that Oakley's investigators added to a report which was hypercritical of the McCanns and their friends. A report that the McCanns gave to SY, but SY also asked the Oakley investigators for it. Why, if they already had it?
Some factual points we need to settle here.

The statement: 'He produced e-fits that looked like Gerry McCann' simply cannot be substantiated', for the simple reason that we to not know if Martin Smith produced EITHER of two very DIFFERENT e-fits. On the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special on 14 October 2013, all we were told was that the efits had been drawn up by 'two of the witnesses' - DCI Redwood didn't even say they were drawn up by 'two members of the Irish family'.

So, who drew up which one? Answer - we don't know.

Why did the two efits look so different? - we don't know.

Why do the two efits look as though they were drawn up using different computer programs? - again we don't know.     

The claim that even ONE efit 'looks like Gerry McCann' is questionable. As has been said above, each one would bear a resemblance to tens of thousands of white British male faces between say 24 and 50.

On the claim that the Oakley's eeport "was hypercritical of the McCanns and their friends", this is a claim made by ex-MI5 Head of Covert Intelligence, Henri Exton, who stoplifted a bottle of perfume from Manchester Airport. Can we trust him as an honest witness? I think not. It appears he was royally miffed that Halligen didn't pay him enough money and that his efits had lain dormant for 5 years. It sounds like he had an agenda.   

Even if the Smiths are all telling the God's honest truth about their sighting, and even if we take as genuine Martin Smith's 60% to 80% certainty about Gerry McCann being the man he saw for a few seconds in the dark four months previously, it is absolutely plain that his subsequent conduct contradicts that belief.

He and/or his family...

* support the McCanns and the McCann Team
* endorse the search for the abductor
* have clearly co-operated with the McCanns in the Channel 4 documentary of 2009
* changed his evidence about the age of the man he said he'd seen from 40 to '34-35' when the McCanns uploaded a summary of his statement to their 'Find Madeleine' website
* were content, so far as we can ascertain, with the claim in Kate McCann's book that 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman' were one and the same, and
* met with DCI Redwood both in 2012 and 2013 in the run-up to the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special.

'ferryman' asserts that this conduct proves beyond doubt that if Martin Smith ever did feel that the man he says he saw was Gerry McCann, he has long since changed his mind.

The only alternative is that he has been calmly stringing everyone along since 2007 - that is, for nearly 9 years.

The McCann-doubters cling on to Martin Smith's '60% to 80% certain' claim as a drowning man clings to a branch.

The McCann-believers sincerely believe that the Smiths really could draw up efits of two quite different-looking men a whole year after seeing a bloke, face partly hidden, for a few seconds, in the dark, with poor street lighting, and after all saying that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him. They are equally clutching at straws in sharing DCI Redwood's claim that 'these two efits are the centre of our focus'.                                   

INTERESTING NOTE:

Aoife Smith also used the phrase '60% to 80% certain' when asked if she thought the child she saw being carried was Madeleine McCann. I doubt if any judge or jury would put any weight whatsoever on this testimony.

But they might raise an eyebrow at why both father and daughter came up with the identical '60% to 80%' figure and ask themselves: 'I wonder where that figure came from?'

Offline jassi

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #498 on: February 24, 2016, 03:24:06 PM »
Some factual points we need to settle here.

The statement: 'He produced e-fits that looked like Gerry McCann' simply cannot be substantiated', for the simple reason that we to not know if Martin Smith produced EITHER of two very DIFFERENT e-fits. On the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special on 14 October 2013, all we were told was that the efits had been drawn up by 'two of the witnesses' - DCI Redwood didn't even say they were drawn up by 'two members of the Irish family'.

So, who drew up which one? Answer - we don't know.

Why did the two efits look so different? - we don't know.

Why do the two efits look as though they were drawn up using different computer programs? - again we don't know.     

The claim that even ONE efit 'looks like Gerry McCann' is questionable. As has been said above, each one would bear a resemblance to tens of thousands of white British male faces between say 24 and 50.

On the claim that the Oakley's eeport "was hypercritical of the McCanns and their friends", this is a claim made by ex-MI5 Head of Covert Intelligence, Henri Exton, who stoplifted a bottle of perfume from Manchester Airport. Can we trust him as an honest witness? I think not. It appears he was royally miffed that Halligen didn't pay him enough money and that his efits had lain dormant for 5 years. It sounds like he had an agenda.   

Even if the Smiths are all telling the God's honest truth about their sighting, and even if we take as genuine Martin Smith's 60% to 80% certainty about Gerry McCann being the man he saw for a few seconds in the dark four months previously, it is absolutely plain that his subsequent conduct contradicts that belief.

He and/or his family...

* support the McCanns and the McCann Team
* endorse the search for the abductor
* have clearly co-operated with the McCanns in the Channel 4 documentary of 2009
* changed his evidence about the age of the man he said he'd seen from 40 to '34-35' when the McCanns uploaded a summary of his statement to their 'Find Madeleine' website
* were content, so far as we can ascertain, with the claim in Kate McCann's book that 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman' were one and the same, and
* met with DCI Redwood both in 2012 and 2013 in the run-up to the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special.

'ferryman' asserts that this conduct proves beyond doubt that if Martin Smith ever did feel that the man he says he saw was Gerry McCann, he has long since changed his mind.

The only alternative is that he has been calmly stringing everyone along since 2007 - that is, for nearly 9 years.

The McCann-doubters cling on to Martin Smith's '60% to 80% certain' claim as a drowning man clings to a branch.

The McCann-believers sincerely believe that the Smiths really could draw up efits of two quite different-looking men a whole year after seeing a bloke, face partly hidden, for a few seconds, in the dark, with poor street lighting, and after all saying that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him. They are equally clutching at straws in sharing DCI Redwood's claim that 'these two efits are the centre of our focus'.                                   

INTERESTING NOTE:

Aoife Smith also used the phrase '60% to 80% certain' when asked if she thought the child she saw being carried was Madeleine McCann. I doubt if any judge or jury would put any weight whatsoever on this testimony.

But they might raise an eyebrow at why both father and daughter came up with the identical '60% to 80%' figure and ask themselves: 'I wonder where that figure came from?'

However they do exclude swarthy bearded and long haired mustachioed types, so that's got to be a start
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #499 on: February 24, 2016, 03:34:06 PM »
Some factual points we need to settle here.



 On the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special on 14 October 2013, all we were told was that the efits had been drawn up by 'two of the witnesses' - DCI Redwood didn't even say they were drawn up by 'two members of the Irish family'.

So, who drew up which one? Answer - we don't know.

Why did the two efits look so different? - we don't know.

Why do the two efits look as though they were drawn up using different computer programs? - again we don't know. 

Two, separate, efits were drawn up, one by Martin Smith, another by his wife, Mary   

The claim that even ONE efit 'looks like Gerry McCann' is questionable. As has been said above, each one would bear a resemblance to tens of thousands of white British male faces between say 24 and 50.

On the claim that the Oakley's report "was hypercritical of the McCanns and their friends", this is a claim made by ex-MI5 Head of Covert Intelligence, Henri Exton, who stoplifted a bottle of perfume from Manchester Airport. Can we trust him as an honest witness? I think not. It appears he was royally miffed that Halligen didn't pay him enough money and that his efits had lain dormant for 5 years. It sounds like he had an agenda.

Good point.   

Even if the Smiths are all telling the God's honest truth about their sighting, and even if we take as genuine Martin Smith's 60% to 80% certainty about Gerry McCann being the man he saw for a few seconds in the dark four months previously, it is absolutely plain that his [Exton's] subsequent conduct contradicts that belief.

Agreed, and wholly understandable when all circumstances are taken into account.  It is evidence of Mr Smith's bona fide that, in his original statement to Irish Gardia police, he was careful to reflect views of ALL his family with him, not just his own, and ALL his children disagreed that the man was Gerry.  Of course, that included his daughter Aofie who, for a long while, I thought might have produced the second efit (with her father, far the most observant witness of what the Smiths saw that night).  Now, of course, we know Mr Smith's wife (whose statement we don't see on line) produced that second e-fit.

He and/or his family...

* support the McCanns and the McCann Team
* endorse the search for the abductor
* have clearly co-operated with the McCanns in the Channel 4 documentary of 2009
* changed his evidence about the age of the man he said he'd seen from 40 to '34-35' when the McCanns uploaded a summary of his statement to their 'Find Madeleine' website
* were content, so far as we can ascertain, with the claim in Kate McCann's book that 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman' were one and the same, and
* met with DCI Redwood both in 2012 and 2013 in the run-up to the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special.

'ferryman' asserts that this conduct proves beyond doubt that if Martin Smith ever did feel that the man he says he saw was Gerry McCann, he has long since changed his mind.

In fairness, I have produced a link to a verbatim statement of Mr Smith's wfe which, I think, proves the point.  She made it in a statement to the press after the files were released in early August 2008

The only alternative is that he has been calmly stringing everyone along since 2007 - that is, for nearly 9 years.

I assume you refer to Mr Smith?  What is your basis for that belief?

The McCann-doubters cling on to Martin Smith's '60% to 80% certain' claim as a drowning man clings to a branch.

The McCann-believers sincerely believe that the Smiths really could draw up efits of two quite different-looking men a whole year after seeing a bloke, face partly hidden, for a few seconds, in the dark, with poor street lighting, and after all saying that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him. They are equally clutching at straws in sharing DCI Redwood's claim that 'these two efits are the centre of our focus'. 

I see no reason to doubt Martin Smith's bona fide as an honest, if mistaken, witness, who corrected his error as soon as he was wholly convinced of it.  I think it a pity that we don't see Mary Smith's statement on line.                                 

INTERESTING NOTE:

Aoife Smith also used the phrase '60% to 80% certain' when asked if she thought the child she saw being carried was Madeleine McCann. I doubt if any judge or jury would put any weight whatsoever on this testimony.

But they might raise an eyebrow at why both father and daughter came up with the identical '60% to 80%' figure and ask themselves: 'I wonder where that figure came from?'

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #500 on: February 24, 2016, 03:34:31 PM »
Smithman gave the time away. Oh is she asleep? Woof Woof.

Aiofe couldn't see her face so couldn't be 100% certain.

"She did not see the child's face because she was lying against the individual's left shoulder in a vertical position against the individual. She appeared to be sleeping. Her arms were suspended along her body and were not around the individual's neck." AS
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #501 on: February 24, 2016, 03:51:46 PM »
Smithman gave the time away. Oh is she asleep? Woof Woof.

Aiofe couldn't see her face so couldn't be 100% certain.

"She did not see the child's face because she was lying against the individual's left shoulder in a vertical position against the individual. She appeared to be sleeping. Her arms were suspended along her body and were not around the individual's neck." AS

What point are you making?

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #502 on: February 24, 2016, 03:53:41 PM »
The phrase 60-80% sure could be in response to a question to try to pin down a rough estimate of the degree of certainty.
0% = categorically not
0-20%
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
100% = absolutely certain

With 40-60% being "dunno" and 60-80% being one grade up from that.

Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #503 on: February 24, 2016, 03:55:31 PM »
blonk: Why do the two efits look as though they were drawn up using different computer programs? - again we don't know. 

ferryman:Two, separate, efits were drawn up, one by Martin Smith, another by his wife, Mary... Of course, that included his daughter Aofie who, for a long while, I thought might have produced the second efit (with her father, far the most observant witness of what the Smiths saw that night).  Now, of course, we know Mr Smith's wife (whose statement we don't see on line) produced that second e-fit.

blonk: Do we? I've never seen that stated anywhere. Do you have a link please?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 
blonk: 'ferryman' asserts that this conduct proves beyond doubt that if Martin Smith ever did feel that the man he says he saw was Gerry McCann, he has long since changed his mind.

ferryman: In fairness, I have produced a link to a verbatim statement of Mr Smith's wife which, I think, proves the point.  She made it in a statement to the press after the files were released in early August 2008.

blonk: We are in agreement on the point. The newspaper report you quoted up the thread was simply asserting what must be blindingly obvious - namely that (for whatever reason) Martin Smith rapidly resiled from his 20 Sept '07 claim about the man he said he'd seen looking like Gerry McCann.   

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

blonk: The only alternative is that he has been calmly stringing everyone along since 2007 - that is, for nearly 9 years.

ferryman: I assume you refer to Mr Smith?  What is your basis for that belief?

blonk: Yes, I was referring to Martin Smith - but in point of fact I was trying to represent G-unit's beliefs, not mine. If I have understood G-unit's contributions on this point correctly, it seems to me she is saying, in effect: "Smith DID see Gerry (carrying Madeleine) at about 10pm on 3rd May. I am sure he still holds that view. Therefore he is PRETENDING to support the abduction theory". I can't read G-unit's 'take' on this any other way.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
     
blonk: The McCann-doubters cling on to Martin Smith's '60% to 80% certain' claim as a drowning man clings to a branch.

The McCann-believers sincerely believe that the Smiths really could draw up efits of two quite different-looking men a whole year after seeing a bloke, face partly hidden, for a few seconds, in the dark, with poor street lighting, and after all saying that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him. They are equally clutching at straws in sharing DCI Redwood's claim that 'these two efits are the centre of our focus'. 

ferryman: I see no reason to doubt Martin Smith's bona fide as an honest, if mistaken, witness, who corrected his error as soon as he was wholly convinced of it.  I think it a pity that we don't see Mary Smith's statement on line.          

blonk: That is certainly one interpretation of the evidence.     

Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #504 on: February 24, 2016, 04:02:36 PM »
The phrase 60-80% sure could be in response to a question to try to pin down a rough estimate of the degree of certainty.
0% = categorically not
0-20%
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
100% = absolutely certain
OR:

0% = categorically not
0-20% = "I think it could be, just possibly"
0-40% = "It might be, looks a bit like him"
40-60% = "Hmmm, I'm kind of 50-50 about whether he is or not"
60-80% = "I think so, after all, he was carrying Sean on his left shoulder - just like the bloke I saw was"
80-100% = "Looks so like him, I'm almost sure"
100% = absolutely certain

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #505 on: February 24, 2016, 04:11:40 PM »
The phrase 60-80% sure could be in response to a question to try to pin down a rough estimate of the degree of certainty.
0% = categorically not
0-20%
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
100% = absolutely certain

With 40-60% being "dunno" and 60-80% being one grade up from that.

Hadn't thought of that, but highly plausible.

The drawback of statements taken in reported rather than verbatim form .....

Offline pegasus

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #506 on: February 24, 2016, 04:18:43 PM »
(snip)... "It had all the features of an official police press conference ... delivered with detective-speak phrases" ...(snip)
Thanks G-Unit. As you say, the release of the GC efit was not approved by PJ or Leics Police.
Here is the actual Scotsman article - a recommended and illuminating read
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/more-like-the-police-than-the-police-new-tactics-in-hunt-for-madeleine-1-1074749

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #507 on: February 24, 2016, 04:36:16 PM »
There are numerous studies on how witness recall can be influenced.

There are still people who remain totally convinced that Gerry really had written a blog entry on taking a fridge to the dump...


Forensic psychologist Dr Fiona Gabbert has been working at Aberdeen University with Professor Amina Memon on the distortions in eyewitness recollection.

"Memories are very vulnerable to error. If you witness a crime and then read a local news report everything can be combined in your memory at a later date," she said.

Woman holding a gun
Eyewitnesses can focus on a gun to the exclusion of other events

"It can be hard to distinguish between what you saw, and another source of information.

"If there are two people witnessing a crime it is very likely that you are going to ask the person next to you or say 'I can't believe what just happened'."

In studies at the university, subjects were shown very slightly different versions of the same event, such as a crime filmed from different angles.

The subjects are allowed to talk and then a statement is taken as if they are talking to the police.

Dr Gabbert said 70% of participants reported witnessing at least one thing they could not possibly have seen
themselves. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4177082.stm


Same source:

 Mr Roberts cited a study of Amsterdam residents who lived near the site of a 1992 plane crash that claimed 43 lives after a cargo jet smashed into an apartment block.

"The crash was never filmed. But quite a large proportion were adamant they had seen footage on TV and could recall images that were very graphic.

"They had got all this information from various sources but remembered it as an image they had seen on TV."


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4177082.stm

Offline G-Unit

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #508 on: February 24, 2016, 09:09:08 PM »
Some factual points we need to settle here.

The statement: 'He produced e-fits that looked like Gerry McCann' simply cannot be substantiated', for the simple reason that we to not know if Martin Smith produced EITHER of two very DIFFERENT e-fits. On the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special on 14 October 2013, all we were told was that the efits had been drawn up by 'two of the witnesses' - DCI Redwood didn't even say they were drawn up by 'two members of the Irish family'.

So, who drew up which one? Answer - we don't know.

Why did the two efits look so different? - we don't know.

Why do the two efits look as though they were drawn up using different computer programs? - again we don't know.     

The claim that even ONE efit 'looks like Gerry McCann' is questionable. As has been said above, each one would bear a resemblance to tens of thousands of white British male faces between say 24 and 50.

On the claim that the Oakley's eeport "was hypercritical of the McCanns  and their friends", this is a claim made by ex-MI5 Head of Covert Intelligence, Henri Exton, who stoplifted a bottle of perfume from Manchester Airport. Can we trust him as an honest witness? I think not. It appears he was royally miffed that Halligen didn't pay him enough money and that his efits had lain dormant for 5 years. It sounds like he had an agenda.   

Even if the Smiths are all telling the God's honest truth about their sighting, and even if we take as genuine Martin Smith's 60% to 80% certainty about Gerry McCann being the man he saw for a few seconds in the dark four months previously, it is absolutely plain that his subsequent conduct contradicts that belief.

He and/or his family...

* support the McCanns and the McCann Team
* endorse the search for the abductor
* have clearly co-operated with the McCanns in the Channel 4 documentary of 2009
* changed his evidence about the age of the man he said he'd seen from 40 to '34-35' when the McCanns uploaded a summary of his statement to their 'Find Madeleine' website
* were content, so far as we can ascertain, with the claim in Kate McCann's book that 'Tannerman' and 'Smithman' were one and the same, and
* met with DCI Redwood both in 2012 and 2013 in the run-up to the BBC Crimewatch McCann Special.

'ferryman' asserts that this conduct proves beyond doubt that if Martin Smith ever did feel that the man he says he saw was Gerry McCann, he has long since changed his mind.

The only alternative is that he has been calmly stringing everyone along since 2007 - that is, for nearly 9 years.

The McCann-doubters cling on to Martin Smith's '60% to 80% certain' claim as a drowning man clings to a branch.

The McCann-believers sincerely believe that the Smiths really could draw up efits of two quite different-looking men a whole year after seeing a bloke, face partly hidden, for a few seconds, in the dark, with poor street lighting, and after all saying that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him. They are equally clutching at straws in sharing DCI Redwood's claim that 'these two efits are the centre of our focus'.                                   

INTERESTING NOTE:

Aoife Smith also used the phrase '60% to 80% certain' when asked if she thought the child she saw being carried was Madeleine McCann. I doubt if any judge or jury would put any weight whatsoever on this testimony.

But they might raise an eyebrow at why both father and daughter came up with the identical '60% to 80%' figure and ask themselves: 'I wonder where that figure came from?'

Whatever you think of the e-fits the McCanns didn't show any desire to publicise them.

Exton certainly did have an agenda imo. What he told the Times was not, remember, challenged by the McCanns.

He and his team produced the e-fits with the Smiths.
He and his team produced a report criticising the group's story.
Both were given to the McCanns in November 2008, six weeks after Oakley were sacked.
The Fund threatened him with legal action if he shared his report.
Scotland Yard got a letter from the Fund/McCanns authorising him to give them the report.

Perhaps you can explain why the report was given to the McCanns after ties with Oakley had been severed (acrimoniously according to Kate)
Why they would want the report.
Why Exton et al would offer them the report.
Why SY needed authorisation to get the report and e-fits from the PI's if they had already been given them by the parents in 2011.
Read and abide by the forum rules.
Result = happy posting.
Ignore and break the rules
Result = edits, deletions and unhappiness
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ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #509 on: February 24, 2016, 09:31:45 PM »
blonk: Why do the two efits look as though they were drawn up using different computer programs? - again we don't know. 

ferryman:Two, separate, efits were drawn up, one by Martin Smith, another by his wife, Mary... Of course, that included his daughter Aofie who, for a long while, I thought might have produced the second efit (with her father, far the most observant witness of what the Smiths saw that night).  Now, of course, we know Mr Smith's wife (whose statement we don't see on line) produced that second e-fit.

blonk: Do we? I've never seen that stated anywhere. Do you have a link please?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/madeleinemccann/11078595/Madeleine-McCann-are-we-any-closer-to-knowing-the-truth.html

Their evidence was compelling, but it was only in October 2013 that two e-fit images of the man, compiled by police from descriptions given by Mr and Mrs Smith, were released by Scotland Yard to coincide with a BBC Crimewatch reconstruction of Madeleine’s disappearance. He remains a suspect.
 
blonk: 'ferryman' asserts that this conduct proves beyond doubt that if Martin Smith ever did feel that the man he says he saw was Gerry McCann, he has long since changed his mind.

ferryman: In fairness, I have produced a link to a verbatim statement of Mr Smith's wife which, I think, proves the point.  She made it in a statement to the press after the files were released in early August 2008.

blonk: We are in agreement on the point. The newspaper report you quoted up the thread was simply asserting what must be blindingly obvious - namely that (for whatever reason) Martin Smith rapidly resiled from his 20 Sept '07 claim about the man he said he'd seen looking like Gerry McCann.   

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

blonk: The only alternative is that he has been calmly stringing everyone along since 2007 - that is, for nearly 9 years.

ferryman: I assume you refer to Mr Smith?  What is your basis for that belief?

blonk: Yes, I was referring to Martin Smith - but in point of fact I was trying to represent G-unit's beliefs, not mine. If I have understood G-unit's contributions on this point correctly, it seems to me she is saying, in effect: "Smith DID see Gerry (carrying Madeleine) at about 10pm on 3rd May. I am sure he still holds that view. Therefore he is PRETENDING to support the abduction theory". I can't read G-unit's 'take' on this any other way.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
     
blonk: The McCann-doubters cling on to Martin Smith's '60% to 80% certain' claim as a drowning man clings to a branch.

The McCann-believers sincerely believe that the Smiths really could draw up efits of two quite different-looking men a whole year after seeing a bloke, face partly hidden, for a few seconds, in the dark, with poor street lighting, and after all saying that they would never be able to recognise him again if they saw him. They are equally clutching at straws in sharing DCI Redwood's claim that 'these two efits are the centre of our focus'. 

ferryman: I see no reason to doubt Martin Smith's bona fide as an honest, if mistaken, witness, who corrected his error as soon as he was wholly convinced of it.  I think it a pity that we don't see Mary Smith's statement on line.          

blonk: That is certainly one interpretation of the evidence.