Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?

[Carana]

If a crime were to take place anywhere near me, I would certainly now have the reflex to try to think if I'd noticed anything potentially suspicious. I doubt that I would have done say 10 years ago without being requested to do so as part of a police appeal.

As I'm not particularly observant of my surroundings, it would have to be something that I found unusual or interesting for it to stand out as anything more than the general background "noise" of everyday life.

[ShiningInLuz]

Would you say, therefore that they got an equally poor view of the child that Smithman was carrying ?

I don't think the issue is poor view.  If you ever make it out to Luz, please let me know, and I will be happy to show you the Smith sighting under the conditions they saw it.

The lighting is not great.  My personal assessment is that it is not poor.  The lighting, as seen by each of the 3 people (Peter, Martin, Aoife) varies considerably in reality and tallies with differences in statements.

Let me move on to the child.

The sightings were at a time after dark when colour vision no longer works.  One is on to black and white vision.  Any colour vision component is saturated with the yellow or orange of the sodium street lights.

The passage of time, combined with publicity, makes it difficult to be sure about whether they saw a child of Madeleine's age, or whether Madeleine had permeated their memory and distorted it.  Personally, I am of the opinion that they saw a child of about Madeleine's age.

Bear in mind though that Tannerman was identified by Jane Tanner as carrying a child of Madeleine's age, and OG has since come forward with a much younger child.

[jassi]

I don't think the issue is poor view.  If you ever make it out to Luz, please let me know, and I will be happy to show you the Smith sighting under the conditions they saw it.

The lighting is not great.  My personal assessment is that it is not poor.  The lighting, as seen by each of the 3 people (Peter, Martin, Aoife) varies considerably in reality and tallies with differences in statements.

Let me move on to the child.

The sightings were at a time after dark when colour vision no longer works.  One is on to black and white vision.  Any colour vision component is saturated with the yellow or orange of the sodium street lights.

The passage of time, combined with publicity, makes it difficult to be sure about whether they saw a child of Madeleine's age, or whether Madeleine had permeated their memory and distorted it.  Personally, I am of the opinion that they saw a child of about Madeleine's age.

Bear in mind though that Tannerman was identified by Jane Tanner as carrying a child of Madeleine's age, and OG has since come forward with a much younger child.

A question, though,  would be was it definitely a girl, or was that their subsequent assumption.

[Carana]

A question, though,  would be was it definitely a girl, or was that their subsequent assumption.

Martin has a granddaughter of a similar age, which could be the salient detail of his memory recall.

[ShiningInLuz]

A question, though,  would be was it definitely a girl, or was that their subsequent assumption.

Clearly, I cannot answer that definitively.

All I can say is that in the circumstances, they would have been able to ascertain enough information about this (hair style, type of pyjamas), IMO, to make an accurate assessment of the child's gender.

So personally, I believe they saw a man with a little girl.

Beyond that, who knows.

[pathfinder73]

They agreed they thought it was Madeleine but even if they say it's so and so it's not going to convict anyone.

Aoife said she saw his face at the time and had the best view to see his face by the light.

p.s. Kelly's bar is an Irish pub. Last farewell drink before Peter's family leave makes sense to me. The bar bill wouldn't be expensive with 5 children.

21:39 EUR 13.75

They pay have their drinks and leave around 20 minutes later at 10pm. A few minutes later they meet the man and somebody was too cocky and gave the exact alibi time away. A time he will never forget!

[Carana]

The dog has also been trained to identify cadaver scent contamination where
there is no physically retrievable evidence, due to scent adhering to pervious
material such as carpet or the upholstery in motor vehicles. MG

That would include soft cuddly toys but not mobile phones.

Eddie arrived 3 months later.

What is pervious about the bedroom wardrobe, the key fob, the living-room wall and the patio?

[ShiningInLuz]

They agreed they thought it was Madeleine but even if they say it's so and so it's not going to convict anyone.

Aoife said she saw his face at the time and had the best view to see his face by the light.

p.s. Kelly's bar is an Irish pub. Last farewell drink before Peter's family leave makes sense to me. The bar bill wouldn't be expensive with 5 children.

21:39 EUR 13.75

They pay have their drinks and leave around 20 minutes later at 10pm. A few minutes later they meet the man and somebody was too cocky and gave the exact alibi time away. A time he will never forget!

Kelly's bar is claimed to be an Irish bar, and I have also seen it claimed to be a Welsh bar.  The owner at the time became seriously ill and had to sell up in a hurry, so that particular route is closed to me.

Let's turn to The Bull and The Luz Tavern, both traditional English pubs.  Both owned, then and now by Carlos, who is 100% Portuguese.

I have been in Kelly's on a handful of occasions.  The truth of the matter is I am not a pub person.  I can see nothing Irish or Welsh about the interior.  Surely an Irish pub has something definitive, so that when you walk through the door, your immediate impression is Irish?  Perhaps I missed it all.

So why did the Smiths go to Kelly's?  Peter - early flight home.  Aoife - the flight home (of Peter and co) was to be early.  Martin - very early flight, with Martin the taxi to the airport.  Then there was Peter's wife, pregnant, not feeling well, faced with an early flight in the morning.

Why oh why should the Smiths have headed for the local pub?  Why oh why would 4 adults and 5 children rack up a bar bill of a measly €13.75, or roughly €1.50 each?  Perhaps enough for a can of Coke each?

If it was for a last pint of Guinness together, one did not get a pint of Guinness in 2007 for anything close to €1.50 in Kelly's.  If that is the explanation, a lot of people drank nothing that night.

I have no idea whether the Dolphin served Guinness in 2007.  I have no idea whether Kelly's was one of a limited number of places in Luz serving Guinness.

I would be grateful if the womenfolk of the forum would answer the following question.  Alcohol was available at the Dolphin, as shown by the bill.  Kelly's might well have had alcohol that was not available in the Dolphin, of that I cannot be sure.  There is to be an early or very early flight next morning.  Peter's wife is flying on it, is pregnant, and feeling unwell.

What is the chance of a nightcap at Kelly's?  As opposed to a vote to go home?  When the journey home quite probably allowed for a nightcap at the flat(s) for anyone who was interested.

You may wish to bear in mind that I am of the opinion that the Smiths visited Kelly's that night, after leaving the Dolphin.

But I am interested in views of why folks think it went this way.

[pathfinder73]

What is pervious about the bedroom wardrobe, the key fob, the living-room wall and the patio?

If a body was hidden in the wardrobe Eddie would know because scent would be strong there. I don't think it would be lying on top of a mobile phone. They took broken branches for the garden flower bed alert.

[Carana]

There could be a number of reasons.

- A spur-of-the-moment decision just for the fun of it.
- They could have made a tentative arrangement to meet up with someone they knew who wanted to say goodbye.
- The DIL wasn't feeling well and needed to go to the loo.
- (...)

The PJ could have asked, but didn't.

[pathfinder73]

Kelly's bar is claimed to be an Irish bar, and I have also seen it claimed to be a Welsh bar.  The owner at the time became seriously ill and had to sell up in a hurry, so that particular route is closed to me.

Let's turn to The Bull and The Luz Tavern, both traditional English pubs.  Both owned, then and now by Carlos, who is 100% Portuguese.

I have been in Kelly's on a handful of occasions.  The truth of the matter is I am not a pub person.  I can see nothing Irish or Welsh about the interior.  Surely an Irish pub has something definitive, so that when you walk through the door, your immediate impression is Irish?  Perhaps I missed it all.

So why did the Smiths go to Kelly's?  Peter - early flight home.  Aoife - the flight home (of Peter and co) was to be early.  Martin - very early flight, with Martin the taxi to the airport.  Then there was Peter's wife, pregnant, not feeling well, faced with an early flight in the morning.

Why oh why should the Smiths have headed for the local pub?  Why oh why would 4 adults and 5 children rack up a bar bill of a measly €13.75, or roughly €1.50 each?  Perhaps enough for a can of Coke each?

If it was for a last pint of Guinness together, one did not get a pint of Guinness in 2007 for anything close to €1.50 in Kelly's.  If that is the explanation, a lot of people drank nothing that night.

I have no idea whether the Dolphin served Guinness in 2007.  I have no idea whether Kelly's was one of a limited number of places in Luz serving Guinness.

I would be grateful if the womenfolk of the forum would answer the following question.  Alcohol was available at the Dolphin, as shown by the bill.  Kelly's might well have had alcohol that was not available in the Dolphin, of that I cannot be sure.  There is to be an early or very early flight next morning.  Peter's wife is flying on it, is pregnant, and feeling unwell.

What is the chance of a nightcap at Kelly's?  As opposed to a vote to go home?  When the journey home quite probably allowed for a nightcap at the flat(s) for anyone who was interested.

You may wish to bear in mind that I am of the opinion that the Smiths visited Kelly's that night, after leaving the Dolphin.

But I am interested in views of why folks think it went this way.

Kelly's bar is a short distance away from the Dolphin so it's not like they were going out of their way to pop in for a farewell drink.

The Dolphin and Kelly's bar by the steps.

[faithlilly]

From Jane Tanner's rogatory interview :

" I think Russell, I can’t remember who else but then somebody else said oh they, they saw him and etc., so at that point it was, I rang Bob SMALL cos I’d got, I’d got his number from the day before for them you know, they sort of, you know to say, oh is this, is this relevant "

If Tanner hadn't told the rest of the group that she had been asked to do the van surveillance why would they think she'd have any contact with Bob Small in order to get his number or indeed that they'd need it ?

[Carana]

From Jane Tanner's rogatory interview :

" I think Russell, I can’t remember who else but then somebody else said oh they, they saw him and etc., so at that point it was, I rang Bob SMALL cos I’d got, I’d got his number from the day before for them you know, they sort of, you know to say, oh is this, is this relevant "

If Tanner hadn't told the rest of the group that she had been asked to do the van surveillance why would they think she'd have any contact with Bob Small in order to get his number or indeed that they'd need it ?

The group knew that she'd seen a man with a child, reason enough for a UK officer to have contacted her. There was no reason to explain about the surveillance episode to justify that, would there?

[ShiningInLuz]

There could be a number of reasons.

- A spur-of-the-moment decision just for the fun of it.
- They could have made a tentative arrangement to meet up with someone they knew who wanted to say goodbye.
- The DIL wasn't feeling well and needed to go to the loo.
- (...)

The PJ could have asked, but didn't.

Can't fault option 1
As to option 2, Kelly's was near dead that night, and the bar receipts make it look like maybe 2 other people were in between 8pm (start of records) to 12 midnight (end of records).  Could have happened.  Not a good fit for what we know.
Option 3  What's DIL?  If you mean they popped into Kelly's to use a loo, I need to post a photo of the loo in Kelly's.  It is what I would describe as basic.

[Carana]

Can't fault option 1
As to option 2, Kelly's was near dead that night, and the bar receipts make it look like maybe 2 other people were in between 8pm (start of records) to 12 midnight (end of records).  Could have happened.  Not a good fit for what we know.
Option 3  What's DIL?  If you mean they popped into Kelly's to use a loo, I need to post a photo of the loo in Kelly's.  It is what I would describe as basic.

Option 2 - perhaps whoever it may have been didn't show up. A tentative arrangement is still a possibility.

Option 3 - DIL (daughter-in-law) - ok, possibly not likely if the loo is "basic".

Another possible option is if they happened to serve some kind of drink / snack that wasn't available at the Dolphin.
Or could the Dolphin have been noisy / crowded, hence a possible decision to leave and move somewhere else for a quieter moment (Option 1 ish)?

My main point is that there could be any number of reasons. If it had been considered important, the PJ should have asked.