Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?

[Jean-Pierre]

From The Telegraph
Updated 15 February 2016

Mary and Martin Smith, from Ireland, told police they saw a man carrying a child matching Madeleine’s description at around 10pm on Rua da Escola Primaria, 500 yards from the McCanns’ apartment. He was heading towards the beach, did not look like a tourist and did not seem comfortable carrying the child, they said.
Their evidence was compelling, but it was only in October 2013 that two e-fit images of the man, compiled by police from descriptions given by Mr and Mrs Smith, were released by Scotland Yard to coincide with a BBC Crimewatch reconstruction of Madeleine’s disappearance.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/madeleinemccann/11078595/Madeleine-McCann-are-we-any-closer-to-knowing-the-truth.html

A quite uncanny resemblance to Paulo Pereira Cristovão. 

Just sayin....

http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/ex-pj-detective-and-madeleine-book-author-arrested-on-a-series-of-charges-including-kidnapping/34181

[Alice Purjorick]

A quite uncanny resemblance to Paulo Pereira Cristovão. 

Just sayin....

http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/ex-pj-detective-and-madeleine-book-author-arrested-on-a-series-of-charges-including-kidnapping/34181

Looks more like a young John Humphrys (L) and David Ellison (R).

I'm Spartacus !

[Eleanor]

A quite uncanny resemblance to Paulo Pereira Cristovão. 

Just sayin....

http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/ex-pj-detective-and-madeleine-book-author-arrested-on-a-series-of-charges-including-kidnapping/34181

That one looks far more like Cristovao than like Gerry.

[Carana]

Looks more like a young John Humphrys (L) and David Ellison (R).

I'm Spartacus !

Are we sure (R) isn't Piers Morgan? ;)

[G-Unit]

A quite uncanny resemblance to Paulo Pereira Cristovão. 

Just sayin....

http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/ex-pj-detective-and-madeleine-book-author-arrested-on-a-series-of-charges-including-kidnapping/34181

The face is not everything though is it. He's not thin, for a start.

Caucasian, around 175 to 180m in height. He appeared to be about 35/40 years old. He had an average build, a bit on the thin side. His hair was short, in a basic male cut, brown in colour. He cannot state if it was dark or lighter in tone.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

[Jean-Pierre]

The face is not everything though is it. He's not thin, for a start.

Caucasian, around 175 to 180m in height. He appeared to be about 35/40 years old. He had an average build, a bit on the thin side. His hair was short, in a basic male cut, brown in colour. He cannot state if it was dark or lighter in tone.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

Thinner than the other two!   

[misty]

A quite uncanny resemblance to Paulo Pereira Cristovão. 

Just sayin....

http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/ex-pj-detective-and-madeleine-book-author-arrested-on-a-series-of-charges-including-kidnapping/34181

PPC has/had a very distictive. classy haircut. That is not him.
IMO the efit on the left was prepared by someone unfamiliar with adult male hair. The hair on the left ear starts well behind the ear, which is abnormal except in unusual hairline recession. There are no sideburns.

[Brietta]

Do you really think so?

From the Smith family viewpoint, 3 members flew back to Portugal to give statements, and then took part in a photo reconstruction.

This effort was when the sighting might, or might not, have been significant.

The process for the 3 would not have been simple.  Apart from the flight, they then had to first participate in the interview process.  I believe that on 26 May, the PJ was using Portimão, as it's base, so it is better than Faro, but worse than Luz.

And the conduct of the interviews must have been a bit tortuous.  Questions in Portuguese put by the PJ.  Translation into English.  Answer in English.  Translation by interpreter into Portuguese.  PJ note the result in Portuguese.  With a wrapper at the end of getting the final statement translated into English, for each witness to agree and sign.

So which Smiths didn't come forward, who might have useful information (even now)?

One 4 year old and one 6 year old.  I doubt either had anything particularly useful to add, then or now.  I cannot see any family putting two children of such ages through a flight abroad etc. on the hope that they might have a sliver of information that makes a difference.  As it happens, nowadays those two kids just might have a tiny sliver of information that progresses the case.  It has nothing to do with descriptions or e-fits.  It would not come near to cracking the case.  And by now, I doubt they can remember the incident much, if at all.

Aoife did the trip, and put on record some very valuable information.  I particularly like her statement for the way that when she doesn't know the answer, she is clear that she doesn't know.

Peter's wife, the one pregnant and feeling unwell, on her first trip to Luz, appears to have been alongside Peter, at the time of the sighting.  This is based on Peter's description that he did not notice Smithman much as he was concentrating on his wife.  One would assume that a pregnant woman, feeling unwell, faced with a next day flight had more to think about at encounter time than Smithman.  Peter was with her.  One of the two flying to Portugal was surely enough.  If Peter's wife had gone back, then judging by Peter's statement, she would not have been asked more than Peter would, and so would probably have added little.  Both Peter and his wife can be asked fresh questions today, and the answers may (or may not) provide additional useful information.

Martin's wife, at the time of the Smith sighting, was I assume alongside Martin, but that is an assumption on my part.  I am not au fait with Martin and Mary's family structure.  But again, it seems if they were together, then on the surface one sighter would do.

If anyone makes it out to Luz, please come out and have a look with me at the Smith sighting scene under comparable conditions.  I do not make it poor lighting.  I make it adequate for purpose - pedestrian and vehicular traffic - but not fit for an identification parade or e-fits.

(And yes, I have a keen interest in the Smithman sighting.)

That takes me on to the two children who did not return.  From memory, they were aged 10 and 13, compared to Aoife's 12, and those two might have added something useful then.  They might still be capable of adding something useful now, just not descriptions or e-fits.

Let me turn to the issue of the Gardaí.  I mean no disrespect to them, but like many of those involved in this case, they had basically no clue as to the layout of the sighting, or the questions to ask.  If they had taken statements from Mary, from Peter's wife, from the children aged 10 and 13, the only way they would have got further valuable information is by pure chance.

If Mary had made a statement, and later had been involved in the e-fits, as the Telegraph suggests, surely we should have another statement and two e-fits that look like Gerry?  Both seemed to think Smithman was a Gerry look-a-like.  So why does one e-fit look like Gerry while the other does not?

Sergeant Liam Hogan states ... "I took an additional statement from Mr Smith as requested. His wife does not want to make another statement".
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

Suggesting that Mary Smith, the only one of the family to address the man did make a statement.  Which must have been recorded by the Guards since she did not return with the others to make one for the PJ.

[ShiningInLuz]

Sergeant Liam Hogan states ... "I took an additional statement from Mr Smith as requested. His wife does not want to make another statement".
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

Suggesting that Mary Smith, the only one of the family to address the man did make a statement.  Which must have been recorded by the Guards since she did not return with the others to make one for the PJ.

I think of this as Mr Smith said to the police that his wife had stated to Mr Smith that she did not wish to make a further statement.

I do not wish to attempt to criticise Sergeant Liam Hogan.  I simply cannot see whether he was in a position to know much about who had given previous statements, about what, or when.

Martin appears to be of the opinion his wife did not wish to add to a previous statement.  There is nothing in the files, beyond Martin's statement, to indicate a previous statement.

I do not have a comprehensive knowledge of media reports from the time.  I had no interest in the case.  There may be something in those to suggest an earlier statement by Mary.  I can find nothing to persuade me Mary made an earlier statement, and I have no reason to impugn Martin Smith.

[Alice Purjorick]

PPC has/had a very distictive. classy haircut. That is not him.
IMO the efit on the left was prepared by someone unfamiliar with adult male hair. The hair on the left ear starts well behind the ear, which is abnormal except in unusual hairline recession. There are no sideburns.

You are joking of course!
It's an e fit not a bloody Holbein or Hals.

[misty]

You are joking of course!
It's an e fit not a bloody Holbein or Hals.

No, I'm not joking.
Are the public being asked to identify a man with a full head of hair or one with an unusual receding hairline?

[pathfinder73]

I think of this as Mr Smith said to the police that his wife had stated to Mr Smith that she did not wish to make a further statement.

I do not wish to attempt to criticise Sergeant Liam Hogan.  I simply cannot see whether he was in a position to know much about who had given previous statements, about what, or when.

Martin appears to be of the opinion his wife did not wish to add to a previous statement.  There is nothing in the files, beyond Martin's statement, to indicate a previous statement.

I do not have a comprehensive knowledge of media reports from the time.  I had no interest in the case.  There may be something in those to suggest an earlier statement by Mary.  I can find nothing to persuade me Mary made an earlier statement, and I have no reason to impugn Martin Smith.

There's more than what we've seen in the files.

Adds further that his son TA*** was questioned in Ireland and said that the individual was dressed in a long-sleeved coat/jacket, black in colour, and that the child was barefoot.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

[Alice Purjorick]

No, I'm not joking.
Are the public being asked to identify a man with a full head of hair or one with an unusual receding hairline?

They are being asked too look for a man "roughly like" this, which is all an efit can ever be.
A bit like the pics on the "other site". Are we really being asked to look for Julie Driscoll, Gene Vincent with a spotty face and Ian Hendry playing Eric Paice in "Get Carter" ? No we aren't.

[misty]

They are being asked too look for a man "roughly like" this, which is all an efit can ever be.
A bit like the pics on the "other site". Are we really being asked to look for Julie Driscoll, Gene Vincent with a spotty face and Ian Hendry playing Eric Paice in "Get Carter" ? No we aren't.

SY have told us the two efits are representative of one person.
The public are being asked to help identify a man who may or may not have a full head of hair, brown in colour (possibly light or darker), & who may or may not look like GM.
One can only wonder how MS was 60-80% sure about his revelation moment 4 months later from seeing a TV picture.
Still, the one thing the GBP were told by MS was that the man he saw was 100% most definitely not RM, with or without his glasses.

[Alice Purjorick]

SY have told us the two efits are representative of one person.
The public are being asked to help identify a man who may or may not have a full head of hair, brown in colour (possibly light or darker), & who may or may not look like GM.
One can only wonder how MS was 60-80% sure about his revelation moment 4 months later from seeing a TV picture.
Still, the one thing the GBP were told by MS was that the man he saw was 100% most definitely not RM, with or without his glasses.

We got us a choice there. Either SY are winding us up or they really mean it. Faites vos jeux.
We got us another choice. Try to finger RM again or not. On the latter it didn't work first time around so why do you think it will work this time round, ace ?