Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

If you trawl around you will find the incidence of abduction by strangers in the United States. It is remarkably low and remains more or less at the same level.

so what do you think are the chances maddie was abducted

[Estuarine]

so what do you think are the chances maddie was abducted

Slim! but not out of the question.

[Mr Gray]

Slim! but not out of the question.

i would say 60 to 70%

[slartibartfast]

i would say 60 to 70%

Is that a WAG or SWAG.

[Mr Gray]

Is that a WAG or SWAG.

neither

[slartibartfast]

neither

Please show workings?

[Mr Gray]

Please show workings?

options
abduction
walked out of flat
parents

Cant see any way parents involved...they've been investigated thoroughly and no real evidence found...have kept in public eye and never given any indication of involvement...but if you want Il give them 5 %

Walked out...would most probably have been seen...but maybe 25%
Abducted ...70% left

[slartibartfast]

options
abduction
walked out of flat
parents

Cant see any way parents involved...they've been investigated thoroughly and no real evidence found...have kept in public eye and never given any indication of involvement...but if you want Il give them 5 %

Walked out...would most probably have been seen...but maybe 25%
Abducted ...70% left

Yup,

WAG 

[Mr Gray]

Yup,

WAG 
so whats your estimate

[Estuarine]

You may find this of interest. I know its the US but at least they "do" proper stats.
http://www.childfindofamerica.org/information.htm

[slartibartfast]

Yup,

WAG 
so whats your estimate

The difficulty is getting the data to analyse. Most reports have already made assumptions that prevent the reuse of the data.

First step is identifying all cases of child disappearance.
The trying to work out how many of those were:-

Wondered off.
Removed by Stranger.
Removed by Friends.
Removed by Family.

For a situation with no hard evidence, That would give the probability of each scenario.

[Mr Gray]

You may find this of interest. I know its the US but at least they "do" proper stats.
http://www.childfindofamerica.org/information.htm

ive seen all the stats...they may be proper but are you applying them properly...the answers no

[Estuarine]

Consider:- if you toss an English coin in the air there are in fact three possible outcomes on landing.
heads
tails
it stands on its edge
fact no matter how improbable the third may be.
so the chance of abduction by a stranger is independent of the possible number of outcomes and dependent on the statistical incidence of abductions by a stranger in that locality.
So! slim but not out of the question. Acid test:- would you bet the ranch on it?

[Holly Goodhead]

Very slim I would say.  Ben Needham disappeared in 1991 and Maddie in 2007.  Two British born children disappeared while overseas in 16 years.  If they were abducted by a paedophile ring, gypsies, childless couple or the like then why only two singled out in 16 years?

[colombosstogey]

Very slim I would say.  Ben Needham disappeared in 1991 and Maddie in 2007.  Two British born children disappeared while overseas in 16 years.  If they were abducted by a paedophile ring, gypsies, childless couple or the like then why only two singled out in 16 years?

Yes very true. There are sadly so many young children in eastern europe who are taken no one needs to risk taking a high risk child anywhere.

Besides which, NEITHER of these cases have proven to be abduction YET.

Sadly statistically a child taken away by a paedophile is usually found later deceased. Its a sad world.