Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

Consider:- if you toss an English coin in the air there are in fact three possible outcomes on landing.
heads
tails
it stands on its edge
fact no matter how improbable the third may be.
so the chance of abduction by a stranger is independent of the possible number of outcomes and dependent on the statistical incidence of abductions by a stranger in that locality.
So! slim but not out of the question. Acid test:- would you bet the ranch on it?

Let me explain where you are wrong...


My neighbour buys a lottery ticket...his chances of winning are 14 million to one

next week hes bought a fleet of luxury cars and is spending money like its going out of fashion...what are the odds that he has won the lottery...they are no longer 14 million to one



THis is the mistake you and many others are making...
When a child is put to bed the odds of a stranger abduction are very very slim...
If shes gone in the morning...AND her parents are not to blame...the odds of stranger abduction are now high




That's a fact

[Cariad]

Let me explain where you are wrong...


My neighbour buys a lottery ticket...his chances of winning are 14 million to one

next week hes bought a fleet of luxury cars and is spending money like its going out of fashion...what are the odds that he has won the lottery...they are no longer 14 million to one



THis is the mistake you and many others are making...
When a child is put to bed the odds of a stranger abduction are very very slim...
If shes gone in the morning...AND her parents are not to blame...the odds of stranger abduction are now high




That's a fact

But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.

If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.

[Mr Gray]

Consider:- if you toss an English coin in the air there are in fact three possible outcomes on landing.
heads
tails
it stands on its edge
fact no matter how improbable the third may be.
so the chance of abduction by a stranger is independent of the possible number of outcomes and dependent on the statistical incidence of abductions by a stranger in that locality.
So! slim but not out of the question. Acid test:- would you bet the ranch on it?

 il give you another example..you toss acoin..

it doesn't land heads or tails...what are the odds its landed on its edge

[Mr Gray]

But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.

If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.

 im not taking anything for granted..having looked at all the available evidence, like SY, I don't think the parents are to blame

[stephen25000]

im not taking anything for granted..having looked at all the available evidence, like SY, I don't think the parents are to blame

So what are the odds they have all told the truth from the start ?

[Estuarine]

Let me explain where you are wrong...


My neighbour buys a lottery ticket...his chances of winning are 14 million to one

next week hes bought a fleet of luxury cars and is spending money like its going out of fashion...what are the odds that he has won the lottery...they are no longer 14 million to one



THis is the mistake you and many others are making...
When a child is put to bed the odds of a stranger abduction are very very slim...
If shes gone in the morning...AND her parents are not to blame...the odds of stranger abduction are now high




That's a fact

I was looking at it strictly as a mathematical proposition where no possible outcome was prejudged.

[sadie]

But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.

If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.

Cariad,

When one of you comes up with a sensible scenario how The Mccanns as strangers to PT, with no car, with no giant freezer or fridge etc. could have acheived such a successful getting rid of a body, then your ideas will get more attention.

Also look at the Mccanns.  What a happy family they were.  Madeleine so happy.  She is deeply loved, no doubt about it.  Mum and Dad gave her the most important thing as well as the normal parental love.  They played with her, they read to her, they talked with her, they laughed with her.  A family that interacted at all levels, unlike so many families today where Mum and Dad sit in front of the Tele or selfishly on a computer all day long.

And that interactive and supportive time, which they gave, is one of the main reasons she was such a happy child.  And probably she will blossom into an intelligent outgoing person ... so long as she hasn't been abused since.

 So, Cariad, for starters, how about a sensible scenario for how The Mccanns "dunit" ?  Just so that we can take you seriously, like.

[Wonderfulspam]

You have proved you are unable to come up with a sensible scenario....

What was wrong with it then?

[John]

im not taking anything for granted..having looked at all the available evidence, like SY, I don't think the parents are to blame

That's a shift in position for you Dave...now you have doubt?

[Estuarine]

But you don't know that her parents are not to blame! Don't bother quoting Andy Redwood either. He'll only tell us what he wants us to know, not what he thinks.

If you stop taking for granted that the Mccanns are innocent, the odds of stranger abduction go down dramatically.

Cariad methinks thou kickest against a firmly closed portal; but you are not alone!

[stephen25000]

Cariad,

When one of you comes up with a sensible scenario how The Mccanns as strangers to PT, with no car, with no giant freezer or fridge etc. could have acheived such a successful getting rid of a body, then your ideas will get more attention.

Also look at the Mccanns.  What a happy family they were.  Madeleine so happy.  She is deeply loved, no doubt about it.  Mum and Dad gave her the most important thing as well as the normal parental love.  They played with her, they read to her, they talked with her, they laughed with her.  A family that interacted at all levels, unlike so many families today where Mum and Dad sit in front of the Tele or selfishly on a computer all day long.

And that interactive and supportive time, which they gave, is one of the main reasons she was such a happy child.  And probably she will blossom into an intelligent outgoing person ... so long as she hasn't been abused since.

 So, Cariad, for starters, how about a sensible scenario for how The Mccanns "dunit" ?  Just so that we can take you seriously, like.

How do you know what kind of family life they had ?

Your view is pure conjecture and amounts, no more, no less, than attempted propaganda on behalf of the mccanns.

[Mr Gray]

That's a shift in position for you Dave...now you have doubt?

 no shift... I don't think the parents are any way involved

[Mr Gray]

How do you know what kind of family life they had ?

Your view is pure conjecture and amounts, no more, no less, than attempted propaganda on behalf of the mccanns.

From what we know this is true..its not conjecture its an assessment of all the available evidence. This is something that SY will have looked at

[Mr Gray]

So what are the odds they have all told the truth from the start ?

 I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen

[Mr Gray]

Cariad methinks thou kickest against a firmly closed portal; but you are not alone!

 The door isn't firmly closed...show me some real evidence and I will change my mind...most people who think the MccAnns are guilty do so on flawed evidence  imo..SY aren't fooled by flawed evidence...