Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[jassi]

I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen

Indeed they do, but without satisfactory evidence to prove it, it remains merely a possibility.

[John]

no shift... I don't think the parents are any way involved

In what?

[John]

The door isn't firmly closed...show me some real evidence and I will change my mind...most people who think the MccAnns are guilty do so on flawed evidence  imo..SY aren't fooled by flawed evidence...

I bet Barry George is amused at that comment. 

[Mr Gray]

I bet Barry George is amused at that comment. 

 You make a major error john...barry George was found guilty by a jury on the available evidence...there was  a dispute over forensics

[Mr Gray]

Indeed they do, but without satisfactory evidence to prove it, it remains merely a possibility.

of course its a possibility...the question is is it a strong or weak possibility...that depends on the innocence or guilt of the parents

[Mr Gray]

In what?

 In anything criminal...I think they have told the truth about what happened that night

[stephen25000]

I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen

It is your belief they have told the truth and it is no more than that, a belief.

As to the odds, that is speculation on your part.

P.S. The odds on  winning the lottery are 1 in 13,983,816. Euro, somewhat worse...

50C5 x 11C2

Hope that helps.

[jassi]

You make a major error john...barry George was found guilty by a jury on the available evidence...there was  a dispute over forensics

i.e. flawed evidence.

[slartibartfast]

I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen

Of course you can't,what you can say is that with no hard evidence either way the probability of parental involvement in a case like this is a lot higher than you imply.

[ferryman]

Of course you can't,what you can say is that with no hard evidence either way the probability of parental involvement in a case like this is a lot higher than you imply.

No you can't.

[slartibartfast]

No you can't.

I know it is pantomime season but would you care to explain why?

[ferryman]

I know it is pantomime season but would you care to explain why?

Statistically, children are not abducted from the bath of a ground-floor flat while the whole family is at home.

But it happened.

So do you think members of that little girl's family should have been suspected by statistics had not the real culprit been apprehended? 

[jassi]

Statistically, children are not abducted from the bath of a ground-floor flat while the whole family is at home.

But it happened.

So do you think members of that little girl's family should have been suspected by statistics had not the real culprit been apprehended?

Of course. Until a culprit is found, others will naturally  come under suspicion.

[slartibartfast]

Statistically, children are not abducted from the bath of a ground-floor flat while the whole family is at home.

But it happened.

So do you think members of that little girl's family should have been suspected by statistics had not the real culprit been apprehended?

You are using the argument that because Bill has won £1 million on the lottery, the most certain way for me to get £1 million is to buy a lottery ticket.

We are talking probability not actuals. Probabilities tell the police the best use of resources in investigating a particular crime.

The murder of a child who is abducted by a stranger is a rare event. There are estimated to be about 100 such incidents in the United States each year, less than one-half of one percent of the murders committed. There is approximately one child abduction murder for every 10,000 reports of a missing child.

http://www.pollyklaas.org/media/pdf/Abduction-Homicide-Study.pdf

P.S. Yes they should be strong suspects especially if no other evidence existed.

[Mr Gray]

You are using the argument that because Bill has won £1 million on the lottery, the best way for me to get £1 million is to buy a lottery ticket.

No Im not