Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

i.e. flawed evidence.

disputed forensic evidence

[jassi]

Whatever - wouldn;t stand up in court.

[Wonderfulspam]

Statistically, children are not abducted from the bath of a ground-floor flat while the whole family is at home.

But it happened.

So do you think members of that little girl's family should have been suspected by statistics had not the real culprit been apprehended?

So the parents had left their child unattended in the bath, potentially then the abductor has saved the child from death by drowning.

[Mr Gray]

It is your belief they have told the truth and it is no more than that, a belief.

As to the odds, that is speculation on your part.

P.S. The odds on  winning the lottery are 1 in 13,983,816. Euro, somewhat worse...

50C5 x 11C2

Hope that helps.

The figures are easily found on google...

[slartibartfast]

No Im not

No ferryman was.

[Estuarine]

I thought the question was Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted.
Everyone seems to be answering a different question !! Would anyone like to borrow some good books on probability theory?

[Mr Gray]

I thought the question was Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted.
Everyone seems to be answering a different question !! Would anyone like to borrow some good books on probability theory?

 that the question...
the question isn't what were the chances of Maddie being abducted...if you understand probability theory then you will understand the difference

[Redblossom]

Statistically, children are not abducted from the bath of a ground-floor flat while the whole family is at home.

But it happened.

So do you think members of that little girl's family should have been suspected by statistics had not the real culprit been apprehended?

That is a poor exampe to use, the girl was found by searchers within 24 hours IIRC and returned to her mother.....no one would have suspected her in this case....no grounds for it...before or after man was caught

[Mr Gray]

That is a poor exampe to use, the girl was found by searchers within 24 hours IIRC and returned to her mother.....no one would have suspected her in this case....no grounds for it

 Parents are ALWAYS suspects in missing children cases...a competent police force will look at them straight away but still investigate all other options

[stephen25000]

The figures are easily found on google...

 I didn't need to, it's simple stats .

[Mr Gray]

I didn't need to, it's simple stats .

 The figures wrong...it assumes all the balls are of equal weight...that's complex stats

[Estuarine]

that the question...
the question isn't what were the chances of Maddie being abducted...if you understand probability theory then you will understand the difference

You seem to have forgotten the title of your own thread davel; keep up!

[Redblossom]

You seem to have forgotten the title of your own thread davel; keep up!

Good observation....*snortle*

 

[Benice]

I would say that they have told the truth about what happened that night...if I am right then the odds of abduction are high... What I am saying is that you cant use the fact that abductions are rare to say the McCanns must be involved...rare things happen rarely...but they happen

I agree.    'Rare' does not equate to 'never' - which IMO is being claimed by some people

Statistics would have to show that stranger abduction has never happened for that to be the case.

I believe the McCanns and their friends have always told the truth.  However that does not mean that everything they have said is accurate because, as we all know, memories are notoriously flawed and different people have different powers of recall and different concepts of time and distance.    Hence inconsistencies - which the UK police have stated are perfectly normal  - whenever a group of people are asked to recall the same events.

[Mr Gray]

You seem to have forgotten the title of your own thread davel; keep up!

 Is English not your first language