Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

You said later davel and that we wouldn't be disappointed?

As it stands I put the probability of abduction at less than 50%

i was quite right...my "you wouldn't be disappointed" was a very clever play on words....i'm sure stephen is absolutely thrilled to see my explanation

[Mr Gray]

You said later davel and that we wouldn't be disappointed?

As it stands I put the probability of abduction at less than 50%

i put it at higher...what would you put it at

[stephen25000]

i was quite right...my "you wouldn't be disappointed" was a very clever play on words....i'm sure stephen is absolutely thrilled to see my explanation

It wasn't a play on words.

We already knew you could not justify what you said by the use of statistics.

[Mr Gray]

It wasn't a play on words.

We already knew you could not justify what you said by the use of statistics.

as you know I'm not in the slightest bothered about your opinion

[Alice Purjorick]

You said later davel and that we wouldn't be disappointed?

As it stands I put the probability of abduction at less than 50%

We aren't disappointed are we? because we never expected to see the proposition shown as any sort of mathematical proof.

[Mr Gray]

We aren't disappointed are we? because we never expected to see the proposition shown as any sort of mathematical proof.

I said "you " would not be disappointed...as I said it was  a clever play on words taht seems to have gone over some heads

[Angelo222]

I said "you " would not be disappointed...as I said it was  a clever play on words taht seems to have gone over some heads

Same old duplicitous meanings. 

[Angelo222]

i put it at higher...what would you put it at

I wouldn't put it higher because at the end of the day it comes down to foul play or accident and since most accidents occur in the home...

[Wonderfulspam]

I'm going to stick my neck out, hazard a wild guess & say that, in the history of human civilization, more people have died than have been abducted.

So, statiscally, it's much more likely that Maddie died, than that she was abducted.

[G-Unit]

I haven't commented because the only knowledge I have about statistics is that they can't always be relied on;

http://www.truthpizza.org/logic/stats.htm

I would be interested to learn how such a calculation can be applied to the disappearance of Madeleine though.

All we know is that the child was probably collected from high tea at 5.30pm by her mother and was never seen again by an independent witness.

[John]

For the record

http://www.rospa.com/home-safety/advice/child-safety/accidents-to-children/

More than two million children under the age of 15 experience accidents in and around the home every year, for which they are taken to accident and emergency units. Many more are treated by GPs and by parents and carers. On average 62 children under the age of five died as a result of an accident and over 76.000 under the age of 14  are admitted for treatment of which over 40% are under 5 years of age.

Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest numbers of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety.

[stephen25000]

For the record

http://www.rospa.com/home-safety/advice/child-safety/accidents-to-children/

More than two million children under the age of 15 experience accidents in and around the home every year, for which they are taken to accident and emergency units. Many more are treated by GPs and by parents and carers. On average 62 children under the age of five died as a result of an accident and over 76.000 under the age of 14  are admitted for treatment of which over 40% are under 5 years of age.

Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest numbers of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety.

Thank you for that.

[Mr Gray]

For the record

http://www.rospa.com/home-safety/advice/child-safety/accidents-to-children/

More than two million children under the age of 15 experience accidents in and around the home every year, for which they are taken to accident and emergency units. Many more are treated by GPs and by parents and carers. On average 62 children under the age of five died as a result of an accident and over 76.000 under the age of 14  are admitted for treatment of which over 40% are under 5 years of age.

Those most at risk from a home accident are the 0-4 years age group. Falls account for the majority of non-fatal accidents while the highest numbers of deaths are due to fire. Most of these accidents are preventable through increased awareness, improvements in the home environment and greater product safety.

we know children have accidents in the home but posters are getting carried away with accident statisics without looking at accidents resulting in death. We then need to look at accidents resulting in death in a very limited timeframe. Amarals explanation just does not fit the bill as we have discussed before

[Alice Purjorick]

we know children have accidents in the home but posters are getting carried away with accident statisics without looking at accidents resulting in death. We then need to look at accidents resulting in death in a very limited timeframe. Amarals explanation just does not fit the bill as we have discussed before

Your postulation works only if an artificial constraint is introduced.

[Mr Gray]

Your postulation works only if an artificial constraint is introduced.

nothing artificial..constraints to fit the scenario,,.....you previously produced a child dying on a piece of gym equipment.....nothing artificial in ruling that out