Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Mr Gray]

Seems the standard sceptic argumenpost something ridiculous as a fact and expect others to prove it wrong

[sadie]

Abduction by stranger probability 0.0000017.
I am sure someone can show it isn't with appropriate cites and calcs. etc if it isn't.

Rubbish Alice.

Don't need stats for that.  Plenty of abductions to go on, including the abduction of a little girl from her bath in England .... as her family were in the house with her ... and according to some reports, in the next room

[Alfie]

No it's up to the poster to explain and support your posts
Probability that both you and slarti  won't be able to
100%

LOL.  Is alice claiming that abduction in this case has a probability of ).000000whatever or is that the likelihood of any random child anywhere being abducted by a stranger?  Two different things completely of course.

[Alfie]

There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine -
1) parental involvement
2) woke and wandered
3) adducted. 
If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell? 

[Mr Gray]

alice is not expecting to be taken seriously

[Alice Purjorick]

There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine -
1) parental involvement
2) woke and wandered
3) adducted. 
If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell?

So?

[Alice Purjorick]

alice is not expecting to be taken seriously

I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".  It might be a long wait but I am up for it.
The probability has been posted on this very thread about three years ago by a another poster complete with cite...

[Mr Gray]

I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".  It might be a long wait but I am for it.
The probability has been posted on this very thread about three years ago by a another poster complete with cite...

so you are not joking.........could we have the cite so we can show what a stupid idea it is

[Alice Purjorick]

so you are not joking.........could we have the cite so we can show what a stupid idea it is

No.
You can show that the probability is not 0.000017 by using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".
You should find it a breeze if what I have said is untrue.

[G-Unit]

There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine -
1) parental involvement
2) woke and wandered
3) adducted. 
If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell?

To tease it out further;

The people involved could be parents, other family members, friends, acquaintances or strangers, or a mixture of some of them. 

Woke and wandered is the only simple variable.

Abduction could be stranger, other family member or acquaintance .

[Alice Purjorick]

Rubbish Alice.

Don't need stats for that.  Plenty of abductions to go on, including the abduction of a little girl from her bath in England .... as her family were in the house with her ... and according to some reports, in the next room

Demonstrate why it is rubbish in your opinion.

[Mr Gray]

No.
You can show that the probability is not 0.000017 by using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".
You should find it a breeze if what I have said is untrue.

then provide the solution or the cite...it is a stupid question

[Alice Purjorick]

There are only 3 options to explain what happened to Madeleine -
1) parental involvement
2) woke and wandered
3) adducted. 
If abducted is 0.000000whatever, then what are percentages for the other two, pray tell?

I wasn't using percentages.

[Mr Gray]

Demonstrate why it is rubbish in your opinion.

because we do not have enough information to make such an accurate calculation

[Alice Purjorick]

LOL.  Is alice claiming that abduction in this case has a probability of ).000000whatever or is that the likelihood of any random child anywhere being abducted by a stranger?  Two different things completely of course.

Explain how and why.