Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[Alice Purjorick]

Bump from post 1071

I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".  It might be a long wait but I am up for it.

[Alfie]

Let's say for argument's sake that the likelihood of a woman being abducted as she walks down the street is 100,000 to one.  Now, does that mean that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is 100,000 to one too? 

I'm waiting for an answer to this.

[slartibartfast]

Bump from post 1071

I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".  It might be a long wait but I am up for it.

I could give them a hand....

[slartibartfast]

I'm waiting for an answer to this.

If you have correctly calculated the likelihood, yes.

[Alfie]

If you have correctly calculated the likelihood, yes.

Yes?!  What??!  You cannnot be serious... &%+((£. So what you are saying is that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is very small indeed, and that there is a much more likely explanation for her disappearance.  Is that your view?

[Alice Purjorick]

Yes?!  What??!  You cannnot be serious... &%+((£. So what you are saying is that the likelihood that Claudia Lawrence was abducted is very small indeed, and that there is a much more likely explanation for her disappearance. Is that your view?

Slarti didn't say that you did.

[lordpookles]

Bump from post 1071

I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".  It might be a long wait but I am up for it.

That number refers to the probability of a child being abducted? If so you would need to add additional variables imo to revise the figure upwards. For instance if the concentration of paedos in the area was higher then average you could multiply that figure by some amount. Obviously the more variables you have the more confident you can be with your numbers. I think given the history of the case and evidence the number can be revised upwards to some degree. To do a more thorough mathematical anylasis of the case I'd start with a logic tree... Life is short though 

[ShiningInLuz]

How does this news affect the likelihood calcs?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/uncategorized/1325677/chilling-echoes-of-madeleine-mccann-as-mum-tells-how-an-intruder-tried-to-snatch-her-from-her-cot-at-portugal-resort/

Was she forthright and honest and raised a complaint with the PJ in 1994?  Check the article.

Did Nicole Shutterworth volunteer her information in 2007?  It was surely relevant, but I have never heard of her.  Check the article.

Was this information dredged up as a result of Crimewatch 2014?  Might be, but I am finding it hard to work out how it has leaked to the Sun now.  Check the article.

Is there anything in the tale that connects it to Madeleine McCann?  Are we talking Smellyman?  Pimpleman?  Charity collectors?

What is the link to the case?

[Alice Purjorick]

That number refers to the probability of a child being abducted? If so you would need to add additional variables imo to revise the figure upwards. For instance if the concentration of paedos in the area was higher then average you could multiply that figure by some amount. Obviously the more variables you have the more confident you can be with your numbers. I think given the history of the case and evidence the number can be revised upwards to some degree. To do a more thorough mathematical anylasis of the case I'd start with a logic tree... Life is short though  ?{)(**

Much too short when you can chuck a reasonably well derived jumped number at it for a sense check.
The jumped number needing to be out by a factor of ten to the power of lots before a significant difference is encountered.

As a first pass I would do a simple RCA. But then almost immediately we run in to the old problem of either the abductor got in or the child got out.................... &%+((£

[Alfie]

Was she forthright and honest and raised a complaint with the PJ in 1994?  Check the article.

Did Nicole Shutterworth volunteer her information in 2007?  It was surely relevant, but I have never heard of her.  Check the article.

Was this information dredged up as a result of Crimewatch 2014?  Might be, but I am finding it hard to work out how it has leaked to the Sun now.  Check the article.

Is there anything in the tale that connects it to Madeleine McCann?  Are we talking Smellyman?  Pimpleman?  Charity collectors?

What is the link to the case?

She was 3 at the time of the incident so I doubt she reported it to the PJ, but her parents may have, I don't know. According to the article which I did check, her parents informed investigators into Madeleine's disappearance in 2007, but it took 8 years before anyone came back to them. 
The link to the case is - 3 year old girl, on holiday on the Algarve, would-be abduction. 

[Alfie]

The likelihood of anyone being murdered over the course of their life time is 1000 to 1.  So, the likelihood of Claudia Lawrence having been murdered is 1000 to 1, that's according to Slarti / Alice logic.

[Alice Purjorick]

The likelihood of anyone being murdered over the course of their life time is 1000 to 1.  So, the likelihood of Claudia Lawrence having been murdered is 1000 to 1, that's according to Slarti / Alice logic.

There is a fundamental flaw in your presentation there.
See if you can work it out.

ps what has Claudia Lawrence to do with the case of Madeleine McCann ?

[Alfie]

The odds of a child being abducted by a stranger are  roughly 1 in 600,000, therefore the likelihood of Ben Needham having been abducted are 1 in 600,000.  Is this correct?

[lordpookles]

Much too short when you can chuck a reasonably well derived jumped number at it for a sense check.
The jumped number needing to be out by a factor of ten to the power of lots before a significant difference is encountered.

As a first pass I would do a simple RCA. But then almost immediately we run in to the old problem of either the abductor got in or the child got out.................... &%+((£

Root, cause anylasis... Mentioned a logic tree as I have a use for them as I play high stakes poker and try to get near to game theory optimal play - I could see how one could be used here to try and determine certain probabilities. Regarding the jump number you mean a number which would have to be large enough to for instance make abduction 'odds on' favourite? I guess then you could look at that number and see what factors/variables of this case enable us to make the required number to make abduction odds on. That's my understanding Alice anyway of what you say...

[Alfie]

If you were sick enough to want to place a bet at Ladbrokes on Madeleine having been abducted, what odds do you think you would get?  600,000 to one? 6000 to one?  60 to one? Evens?