Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[mercury]

If you were sick enough to want to place a bet at Ladbrokes on Madeleine having been abducted, what odds do you think you would get? 600,000 to one? 6000 to one?  60 to one? Evens?

According to Gerry Mccann, the "odds are in the order of 100 million to 1"
He is a man of science, hs calcs must be close

@2.10

[lordpookles]

dunno never make those kind of bets. I think you'd get something like 1.5/1, maybe at best 3/1, maybe a lot more.... Obviously the bookie would factor in the liklihood of us never finding out which is money in his pocket plus there are alternative theories like woke and wandered and fell down a drain or something, which is money in his pocket which contribute to the bookies expected value of taking the bet... The abduction number Alice quoted obviously highlights how rare abduction of a child  actually is... I mean Alfie if you got odds of 600/1 would you lay the bet?

[ShiningInLuz]

She was 3 at the time of the incident so I doubt she reported it to the PJ, but her parents may have, I don't know. According to the article which I did check, her parents informed investigators into Madeleine's disappearance in 2007, but it took 8 years before anyone came back to them. 
The link to the case is - 3 year old girl, on holiday on the Algarve, would-be abduction.

You are correct, Alfie, that I have named 3 year old Nicola, when I intended to name her mother, Lilian.  Mea culpa.

I take it the bit in the Sun article you mean is this.

"In 2007, when the family heard of the devastating news of Madeline McCann, they got in touch with investigators to offer up information in case there was a link with their experience.

Incredibly, despite contacting them twice they only got a call back eight years later."

Investigators?   8 years later OG?  A bit cryptic, isn't it?

[mercury]

What is it with these people that wait for years before going to the press? Unless the press take their stories coming forward at the time or after an appeal and hold onto the information for future use? We have had at least half a dozen examples of this including "witnesses"
Its quite baffling for the media uninitiated.

Eta going to investigators implies PIs NOT police

[stephen25000]

According to Gerry Mccann, the "odds are in the order of 100 million to 1"
He is a man of science, hs calcs must be close

@2.10

Well after all , Gerry knows best. 8)-)))

[Mr Gray]

You are correct, Alfie, that I have named 3 year old Nicola, when I intended to name her mother, Lilian.  Mea culpa.

I take it the bit in the Sun article you mean is this.

"In 2007, when the family heard of the devastating news of Madeline McCann, they got in touch with investigators to offer up information in case there was a link with their experience.

Incredibly, despite contacting them twice they only got a call back eight years later."

Investigators?   8 years later OG?  A bit cryptic, isn't it?

looks like she informed the original PJ investigation in 2007 but only got  a call back when Grange took over

[Mr Gray]

Bump from post 1071

I am waiting to see if a supporter can come with a post that refutes the probability using maths rather than just saying "rubbish".  It might be a long wait but I am up for it.

You are asking posters to refute something that you cannot produce. What it appears is that you are quoting relates to the possibility that Maddie would be abducted  rather than was abducted....this is a mistake many have made

[stephen25000]

Well after all , Gerry knows best.

In the video, she says ''during one of her checks''

She only did 1 check.

[slartibartfast]

looks like she informed the original PJ investigation in 2007 but only got  a call back when Grange took over

It says investigators and doesn't mention the police.

[Mr Gray]

It says investigators and doesn't mention the police.

aren't the police investigators

[Mr Gray]

to explain again...that was the chances of maddie being abducted....not that she was abducted...they are totally different

[stephen25000]

Why did Kate Mccann say she did checks, when she only did 1 ? &%+((£

[slartibartfast]

aren't the police investigators

The incident happened in 1994, 40 miles away, the mother woke and saw a figure near her daughter's cot and screamed.

[slartibartfast]

to explain again...that was the chances of maddie being abducted....not that she was abducted...they are totally different

Only when more information and evidence is available.

[Mr Gray]

Only when more information and evidence is available.

not at all....the one piece of information that changes the odds dramatically is that Maddie is missing...if you cannot understand that simple fact it really is a waste of time


we know that the sum of all outcomes is unity so if abduction is such a tiny figure what are the values for the other outcomes....think about that and you will see why your position makes no sense