Did the burglaries at Ocean Club have some relevance to Madeleine?

[jassi]

So, how do you think Madeleine got out and when?

Not by herself, through one of the doors.  Probably before 21.30

[pegasus]

Mr A's hypothesis, climb up to a different window to tap and shout, simply lacked an indirect trigger to make it plausible, and he missed it, IMO.

[VIXTE]

Not by herself, through one of the doors.  Probably before 21.30

Could you be more clear? I cannot read people's mind ;)

[jassi]

Could you be more clear? I cannot read people's mind ;)

I don' think I can be much clearer. She was removed from the apartment by an adult, probably between 20.30 and 21.30.

[pegasus]

Q. How would the thief who never entered know someone was in?
A. He thinks no-one is in, but immediatly after fully raising shutter (while still standing outside) he sees and hears someone is in.

[VIXTE]

I don' think I can be much clearer. She was removed from the apartment by an adult, probably between 20.30 and 21.30.

That would be the time the parents happily chatted at the table..

Actually people's thoughts tell a lot about themselves.. ;)

[VIXTE]

Q. How would the thief who never entered know someone was in?
A. He thinks no-one is in, but immediatly after fully raising shutter (while still standing outside) he sees and hears someone is in.

And then?

[jassi]

That would be the time the parents happily chatted at the table..

Actually people's thoughts tell a lot about themselves.. ;)

Not necessarily. There were comings and goings all evening and some uncertainty over timings and who was where and when.

[pegasus]

Can no-one else see that a would-be thief opening that particular window and shutter from outside, would with almost complete inevitability result simultaneously in two movements of opposite directions, the thief fleeing into night before entry, and the woken occupant going into some other room of the apartment?

[slartibartfast]

That would be the time the parents happily chatted at the table..

Actually people's thoughts tell a lot about themselves.. ;)

Interesting that you place such store by the colouring book timelines.

[VIXTE]

Not necessarily. There were comings and goings all evening and some uncertainty over timings and who was where and when.

Family and friends are not suspects.
I analysed them long ago and I no longer want to go into that area.. My own conclusions were; they were there too short to know the area that well to perform a perfect crime. Like me, I was in Vienna for 6 days and I have no clue about life in Vienna and don't speak German, and don't know anyone there.. so it would be pretty hard for me to perform a perfect crime in Vienna even if I had plenty of time.. and they were squeezed with time.. Could they have helpers in their friends, no. Not a single professional in the UK and I know many of them in my opinion would hide someone's crime and jeopardise their own life.. What for?

The second thing, they could not just get rid of their daughter and go and happily laugh and drink.. these people are people like us.. could you do it?  And what for?

My own analysis plus the police saying they are not suspects summarises it well for me.. They are not suspects!

[VIXTE]

Can no-one else see that a would-be thief opening that particular window and shutter from outside, would with almost complete inevitability result simultaneously in two movements of opposite directions, the thief fleeing into night before entry, and the woken occupant going into some other room of the apartment?

Yes. that is possible. And then? What happens after that?

[Redblossom]

Voisey, a.k.a. Smith, was originally questioned because he was a registered sex offender, as part of a wide sweep of local people who might be of interest. Originally a known sneak thief, committing high risk burglaries with a chance of discovery,[2] he had been convicted in 2001 of sexually assaulting a 12-year-old girl in a swimming pool changing room in Cheshire.[3] He was not initially considered a priority lead, as he had been classified low risk due to good behaviour.[2] Voisey initially appeared good natured, and had a good account of his movements. He continued to strenuously deny any involvement when further interviewed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willington_Quay_child_abduction_case#cite_note-cw-2

But the point is, did he go to burgle the house or take the girl? It seems the second and not a robbery gone wrong......

[Redblossom]

Burglaries and Sexual Aggression
In Guttmacher'ss group of 36 dangerous aggressive sexual offenders, only 1 had a history of exhibitionism, whereas 8 (22%) had a history of burglary. He concludes that "the basic personality structure of the burglar resembled that of the rapist far more closely than that of the exhibitionist. In fact, the legal term
'breaking and entering' bears just such a connotation" (p. 383). This finding is confirmed by Revitch's study of 43 men who had made serious attacks on women, including beating, choking, knifing, and nine murders. Here, only 3 offenders had a history of prior sexual offenses while 12 (28%) had a record of burglary. Four of the 12 (33%) combined burglary with assault on the female occupant. MacDonald also has described several cases of dangerous sex offenders with a history of burglaries escalating to rape and serious assault.

http://www.jaapl.org/content/27/2/227.full.pdf

However horrific these events are, the victims are not abducted and they are not children......you can quote as many studies as you like.....are they relevant though?


On a different note....I read a couple press reports that say SY are angry/frustrated because they know the kidnappers, traced through mobile phone records but cant arrest them as they have no powers....the Portuguese wont help, blah blah....if this were true why not issue an EAW?

[pegasus]

Yes. that is possible. And then? What happens after that?

Ok so currently outside heading away is a would-be thief who never entered and has fled into the night, taking nobody.
And inside, a definite reason for waking and for exiting fast into another room.
WIthout taking sides.... it behaviourally increases the chance of accident, or (if ventures into public area) abduction.