Amaral's Hypothesis - credible or not?

[Alfred R Jones]

In the absence of any other detailed non-abduction theory about what happened to Madeleine McCann I thought it might be worth re-visiting Amaral's thesis.  With all that we now know about the case, is his thesis at all credible?  Does it hang together coherently as a plausible account of events?  Is there any evidence that those currently investigating the case are using his thesis as a basis for their investigations?

[Cornelius]

In the absence of any other detailed non-abduction theory about what happened to Madeleine McCann I thought it might be worth re-visiting Amaral's thesis.  With all that we now know about the case, is his thesis at all credible?  Does it hang together coherently as a plausible account of events?  Is there any evidence that those currently investigating the case are using his thesis as a basis for their investigations?

Unless we are privy to all that the Metropolitan Police Service and Policia Judiciara are investigating we will be unable to make any sound judgement on that matter.
I am sure I know the screen names of all those who will now disagree with my statement 

[peter claridge]

In the absence of any other detailed non-abduction theory about what happened to Madeleine McCann I thought it might be worth re-visiting Amaral's thesis.  With all that we now know about the case, is his thesis at all credible?  Does it hang together coherently as a plausible account of events?  Is there any evidence that those currently investigating the case are using his thesis as a basis for their investigations?

What is it exactly that we now know about the case?

[Alfred R Jones]

What is it exactly that we now know about the case?

Well, there are the thousands of pages of Police Files for a start.  Then there is the information that has been released by Scotland Yard since they re-opened the investigation.  I won't bother mentioning Kate McCann's book as that tends to elicit sneers of derision when cited as a source of information.  Do you think Amaral's theory presents a coherent and plausible explanation for Madeleine's disappearance? 

[icabodcrane]

Well, there are the thousands of pages of Police Files for a start.  Then there is the information that has been released by Scotland Yard since they re-opened the investigation.  I won't bother mentioning Kate McCann's book as that tends to elicit sneers of derision when cited as a source of information.  Do you think Amaral's theory presents a coherent and plausible explanation for Madeleine's disappearance?

I am not familiar with Amaral's thesis except in the broadest terms,  not having read his book

Broadly speaking, then,  he believes Madeleine died in apartment 5A as a result of an accident,  doesn't he  ?  ...   and that an abduction was staged and her body disposed of 

The  fact that a cadaver dog alerted in that apartment lends plausibility to her death in the apartment and the fact that the window was opened from the inside might be said to lend plausibility to the suggestion that an abduction was staged

As to the  parents disposing  of their dead child's body,   I can't think of anything that makes that part of his thesis  plausible  ...  it seems incomprehensible to me that these clearly loving parents could carry out such a callous and cold hearted act

[Wonderfulspam]

I am not familiar with Amaral's thesis except in the broadest terms,  not having read his book

Broadly speaking, then,  he believes Madeleine died in apartment 5A as a result of an accident,  doesn't he  ?  ...   and that an abduction was staged and her body disposed of 

The  fact that a cadaver dog alerted in that apartment lends plausibility to her death in the apartment and the fact that the window was opened from the inside might be said to lend plausibility to the suggestion that an abduction was staged

As to the  parents disposing  of their dead child's body,   I can't think of anything that makes that part of his thesis  plausible  ...  it seems incomprehensible to me that these clearly loving parents could carry out such a callous and cold hearted act

Desperate times, desperate measures.

[icabodcrane]

Desperate times, desperate measures.

But taking the dead body of a beloved child and 'disposing'  of it  ? 

I just can't imagine it 

[pathfinder73]

But taking the dead body of a beloved child and 'disposing'  of it  ? 

I just can't imagine it 

It depends on what was the alternative? Autopsy?

[Brietta]

I am not familiar with Amaral's thesis except in the broadest terms,  not having read his book

Broadly speaking, then,  he believes Madeleine died in apartment 5A as a result of an accident,  doesn't he  ?  ...   and that an abduction was staged and her body disposed of 

The  fact that a cadaver dog alerted in that apartment lends plausibility to her death in the apartment and the fact that the window was opened from the inside might be said to lend plausibility to the suggestion that an abduction was staged

As to the  parents disposing  of their dead child's body,   I can't think of anything that makes that part of his thesis  plausible  ...  it seems incomprehensible to me that these clearly loving parents could carry out such a callous and cold hearted act

I have not read the book either.

I have seen it said that Dr Amaral decided on the 4th May that Madeleine had died accidentally in 5a and her parents covered it up by removing and hiding her body.

Then rather than following the evidence to find a perpetrator, he tried to find the evidence which matched his theory. 

Is that correct – and is there a source to support it?  the book?

[Wonderfulspam]

But taking the dead body of a beloved child and 'disposing'  of it  ? 

I just can't imagine it

I can imagine that if I were fairly familiar with the matters of the living & the dead, then I could perhaps be a little desensitised by them.

[icabodcrane]

I have not read the book either.

I have seen it said that Dr Amaral decided on the 4th May that Madeleine had died accidentally in 5a and her parents covered it up by removing and hiding her body.

Then rather than following the evidence to find a perpetrator, he tried to find the evidence which matched his theory. 

Is that correct – and is there a source to support it?  the book?

I don't think there is evidence to suggest Amaral and the Portuguese police did not 'follow evidence'    ...  there  was  no evidence of abduction that they  could  'follow'  ...  was there  ? 

There is certainly evidence that many  'sightings'   all over the world were followed up   (  sightings that were  relentlessly generated by the McCann's  'awareness campaign  )   That element of the investigation must have been a huge distraction and taken up a great deal of police time

[Mr Gray]

I am not familiar with Amaral's thesis except in the broadest terms,  not having read his book

Broadly speaking, then,  he believes Madeleine died in apartment 5A as a result of an accident,  doesn't he  ?  ...   and that an abduction was staged and her body disposed of 

The  fact that a cadaver dog alerted in that apartment lends plausibility to her death in the apartment and the fact that the window was opened from the inside might be said to lend plausibility to the suggestion that an abduction was staged

As to the  parents disposing  of their dead child's body,   I can't think of anything that makes that part of his thesis  plausible  ...  it seems incomprehensible to me that these clearly loving parents could carry out such a callous and cold hearted act

you have stated that the window was opened from the inside...you are stating that as a fact...that's rubbish and therefore weakens your whole argument

[Alfred R Jones]

But taking the dead body of a beloved child and 'disposing'  of it  ? 

I just can't imagine it

Amaral's thesis involves the body being hidden somewhere like the beach, then retrieved some weeks later to be transported in the hire car.  This was apparently achieved by a couple who were at the centre of intense media scrutiny at the time.

[pegasus]

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Mr Amaral's theory is that IMO, and I base my opinion (which may be wrong) on his book plus film plus especially interviews, he seems to think that it was only after the commencement of the last check, that his proposed discovery and physical relocation happened?

[pathfinder73]

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Amaral's theory is that IMO, and I base my opinion (which may be wrong) on his book plus film plus especially interviews, he seems to think that it was only after the commencement of the last check, that his proposed discovery and physical relocation happened?

It doesn't cover the minimum 90 minutes does it? Only 45 minutes at the most?