Amaral's Hypothesis - credible or not?

[pathfinder73]

Daniel's mother arrested after confessed staging the abduction

June 21, 2014, 20h08

Daniel's mother, a child of 23 months who disappeared in Calheta, Madeira, and it appeared after three days in conditions that were unclear, confessed to the Judicial Police who staged the kidnapping.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmjornal.xl.pt%2Fdetalhe%2Fnoticias%2Fultima-hora%2Fmae-de-daniel-confessa-ter-encenado-rapto&edit-text=&act=url

[Eleanor]

Daniel's mother arrested after confessed staging the abduction

June 21, 2014, 20h08

Daniel's mother, a child of 23 months who disappeared in Calheta, Madeira, and it appeared after three days in conditions that were unclear, confessed to the Judicial Police who staged the kidnapping.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmjornal.xl.pt%2Fdetalhe%2Fnoticias%2Fultima-hora%2Fmae-de-daniel-confessa-ter-encenado-rapto&edit-text=&act=url

I wonder how many people are going to believe that?

[Alfred R Jones]

Daniel's mother arrested after confessed staging the abduction

June 21, 2014, 20h08

Daniel's mother, a child of 23 months who disappeared in Calheta, Madeira, and it appeared after three days in conditions that were unclear, confessed to the Judicial Police who staged the kidnapping.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmjornal.xl.pt%2Fdetalhe%2Fnoticias%2Fultima-hora%2Fmae-de-daniel-confessa-ter-encenado-rapto&edit-text=&act=url

Is this vindication of Amaral's "Thesis" then?

[VIXTE]

That's not a particularly useful analogy. In the first example you refer to the string as being unreliable rather than the pulley. In the second example you refer to the rope as having value. The first could be described as both unreliable and without value. The second could be referred to as reliable and having value. So what is your point, other than to demonstrate that reliability and value are interrelated (with value being determined by reliability)

In maths even the zero is a value.
Here is one example how the reliability is calculated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wLIe4NS0IM

So if we take the oposite action to calculate values according to reliability the value could be anything, as due to the zero reliability the value of the factors defining the reliability is not a stable value, i.e it is not a value that can fit into the reliable zone.

So, in science, which is based on the maths the value of unreliable source would be called a speculation.

[Eleanor]

Is this vindication of Amaral's "Thesis" then?

We all know what happened to the last Portuguese Mother who "Confessed" to The PJ. 

Where did she keep this child for three days?  But at least it won't have been in a freezer on this occasion.

[stephen25000]

We all know what happened to the last Portuguese Mother who "Confessed" to The PJ. 

Where did she keep this child for three days?  But at least it won't have been in a freezer on this occasion.

She did confess, before Correia got involved.

..and we know who has been paying Correia don't we ???

[Alfred R Jones]

We all know what happened to the last Portuguese Mother who "Confessed" to The PJ. 

Where did she keep this child for three days?  But at least it won't have been in a freezer on this occasion.

Is this the case where the child was found in the middle of nowhere early one morning?  So, what's she confessed to, exactly?  Selling her child, pretending he was abducted and then what?  Did the person she sold him to dump the child?  Or did she never get round to selling him and hid him instead?  I don't remember Amaral claiming the McCanns had sold Madeleine so where does this case fit in relevance-wise with his hypothesis?

[Eleanor]

Is this the case where the child was found in the middle of nowhere early one morning?  So, what's she confessed to, exactly?  Selling her child, pretending he was abducted and then what?  Did the person she sold him to dump the child?  Or did she never get round to selling him and hid him instead?  I don't remember Amaral claiming the McCanns had sold Madeleine so where does this case fit in relevance-wise with his hypothesis?

All mothers are guilty when their children disappear.  Don't you know that.

[VIXTE]

Contradictions are facts not speculation and they require investigating. A key being used and then not being used is a contradiction. A door not moving then moving is a contradiction. The kids routine not changing then changing is a contradiction. One witness saying he entered the apartment and other witness saying it didn't happen is a contradiction. A window being opened but not used as entry or exit is a contradiction.

A theory of putting a dead child in a coffin which is already in a church is a fantasy.

[jassi]

A theory of putting a dead child in a coffin which is already in a church is a fantasy.

And you know that for a fact? - or is it just your opinion?

[Miss Taken Identity]

I don't believe this theory, however, I defend the right of someone who does.

It has been known that children have been cremated/buried with people who are not their parents.

It is not unbelievable, as a means of getting rid of a body. I am sure it has happened, I just can't recall details sorry.

[VIXTE]

Anyone can believe anything. It all depends on the telling.
The whole marketing strategy of this world has been developed on the possibility of people believing what someone has told them.
A sect members would blindly believe their leaders even if his story is not realistic, this is because the sect leader has developed psychological tools to make them believe.

Believing in story telling is one thing. One man claiming 'he knows it better', because he is more clever than the rest of us has taken a plot in many Hollywood movies. 

Anyone can develop a theory and claim his theory is above all other theories. The evidence is what counts.

[stephen25000]

Anyone can believe anything. It all depends on the telling.
The whole marketing strategy of this world has been developed on the possibility of people believing what someone has told them.
A sect members would blindly believe their leaders even if his story is not realistic, this is because the sect leader has developed psychological tools to make them believe.

Believing in story telling is one thing. One man claiming 'he knows it better', because he is more clever than the rest of us has taken a plot in many Hollywood movies. 

Anyone can develop a theory and claim his theory is above all other theories. The evidence is what counts.

and still at the moment 'type of crime unknown'.

So there are different cards on the table.

[Eleanor]

and still at the moment 'type of crime unknown'.

So there are different cards on the table.

There's Amaral's Ace.  When is he going to throw that one in?

[Miss Taken Identity]

quote"Anyone can develop a theory and claim his theory is above all other theories"unquote

You mean like the McCanns?  yes indeed! abduction has all the evidence you speak of.

Maddie didn't suffer any harm, thank god!  well apart from the book thing, she will be raging when she finds out about that on her happy return from where ever it is she is being kept.