What is the evidence for burglary/murder ?

[icabodcrane]

It has been claimed that the police are working on the hypothesis that a burglar killed Madeleine and subsequently buried her body

How would that work then  ? 

What scenario could adequately accomodate that presumption ...  and what evidence is there to support it  ? 

[John]

It has been claimed that the police are working on the hypothesis that a burglar killed Madeleine and subsequently buried her body

How would that work then  ? 

What scenario could adequately accommodate that presumption ...  and what evidence is there to support it  ?

I don't think they really know all that much even now but since the Portuguese have agreed to excavations they are going to make the best of them.

I fear that in the absence of a body there is no evidence let alone evidence of murder.

[Eleanor]

It has been claimed that the police are working on the hypothesis that a burglar killed Madeleine and subsequently buried her body

How would that work then  ? 

What scenario could adequately accomodate that presumption ...  and what evidence is there to support it  ?

It could just have been an accident in an attempt to silence a woken child who was about to start screaming her head off.

It is only one of several hypotheses.  But it has to be considered.

There is no real evidence.  But then there is no real evidence of anything.

[icabodcrane]

It could just have been an accident in an attempt to silence a woken child who was about to start screaming her head off.

It is only one of several hypotheses.  But it has to be considered.

There is no real evidence.  But then there is no real evidence of anything.

But if the hypothesis that a burglar murdered Madeleine is nothing more than a random possibility,  why would a Portuguese Judge have sanctioned the digging up of Praia de Luz  ?

I mean how would that appeal by the Met have gone  ?

Redwood   "We think a burglar could have murdered Madeleine McCann and buried her body in PDL"

Judge   Why do you think that  ?   what evidence is there ?

Redwood  "Well we don't actually have any evidence, it's just a random possibility"

Judge   "What leads you to think a body would be buried in the locations you are requesting to be dug up ?"

Redwood   "um,  there's no particular reason  ...   they just look like good spots to bury a body"

Judge  "OK then, permission granted"

It just doesn't play,  does it  ? 

[Mr Gray]

But if the hypothesis that a burglar murdered Madeleine is nothing more than a random possibility,  why would a Portuguese Judge have sanctioned the digging up of Praia de Luz  ?

I mean how would that appeal by the Met have gone  ?

Redwood   "We think a burglar could have murdered Madeleine McCann and buried her body in PDL"

Judge   Why do you think that  ?   what evidence is there ?

Redwood  "Well we don't actually have any evidence, it's just a random possibility"

Judge   "What leads you to think a body would be buried in the locations you are requesting to be dug up ?"

Redwood   "um,  there's no particular reason  ...   they just look like good spots to bury a body"

Judge  "OK then, permission granted"

It just doesn't play,  does it  ?

It isnt a random possibility...its based on the balance of probabilities...totally differrent

[icabodcrane]

It isnt a random possibility...its based on the balance of probabilities...totally differrent

So  what makes a burglar murdering Madeleine and burying her body 'probable'  ?

[Mr Gray]

So  what makes a burglar murdering Madeleine and burying her body 'probable'  ?

never said it was probable..its possible...look at the possibilities....

parental involvement
burglar/abductor
maddie leaving the flat herself

one of these has to have happened...therefore they are all possible but SY will have decided which is most probable

[Eleanor]

It plays for me.  In Britain this would have been done as a matter of course, and generally is.  Okay, Portugal isn't Britain, but this should have been done in the beginning.  They comprehensively searched Robert Murat's garden, so obviously they were capable.
Praia da Luz is hardly vast, so there are a very limited number of places in the immediate vicinity where a body could have been buried.

Let's just suppose for a minute that The McCanns did this.  How far from Praia da Luz do you think they would have gotten with a dead body in tow, and no car?  And sorry, I don't believe that they put the body in some imaginary freezer.  And even if they did, how did they bury Madeleine with everyone watching them?

This is actually a good thread, but please let's have some common sense and logic.

[icabodcrane]

never said it was probable..its possible...look at the possibilities....

parental involvement
burglar/abductor
maddie leaving the flat herself

one of these has to have happened...therefore they are all possible but SY will have decided which is most possible

But we are being told that the Met are planning to dig up Praia de Luz because they think a burglar might have murdered Madeleine in the apartment and buried her body nearby

What reason could they have for thinking that  ?

I mean,  there is no evidence of burglary at all  ...  nothing taken, or even disturbed and no sign of forced entry   (that's another thing,  why would this murdering burglar open the window from the inside ?  )

So the Met  presume  that a burglar was in the McCanns' apartment that night  ...  based on no more than a random possibility ...  and then  go on to  presume  that he murdered a child there  (  again, based on nothing more than a random possibility  )

I just don't believe  it

I don't believe the Met think that's what happened at all

...   and I don't think these digs have anything to do with murdering burglars

[icabodcrane]

It plays for me.  In Britain this would have been done as a matter of course, and generally is.  Okay, Portugal isn't Britain, but this should have been done in the beginning.  They comprehensively searched Robert Murat's garden, so obviously they were capable.
Praia da Luz is hardly vast, so there are a very limited number of places in the immediate vicinity where a body could have been buried.

So you are saying that the planned digs are merely  'routine'  police work  ? 

But to what purpose  ? 

What would digging up PDL achieve, exactly,  if it were just a matter of routine police work  ?

The only thing it would establish is that Madeleine wasn't buried  there, there ...  or there

What's next then,  'routinely'  speaking   ?   Digging up a few other random spots ?  and when they yield  nothing,  digging  up a few more  ... and on and on  ? 

There  must  be some intelligence behind the planned digs ...  I just don't see how it can relate to a burglary that doesn't even appear to have happened

[jassi]

So you are saying that the planned digs are merely  'routine'  police work  ? 

But to what purpose  ? 

What would digging up PDL achieve, exactly,  if it were just a matter of routine police work  ?

The only thing it would establish is that Madeleine wasn't buried  there, there ...  or there

What's next then,  'routinely'  speaking   ?   Digging up a few other random spots ?  and when they yield  nothing,  digging  up a few more  ... and on and on  ? 

There  must  be some intelligence behind the planned digs ...  I just don't see how it can relate to a burglary that doesn't even appear to have happened

And why is it so important that McCann supporters portray it as such ? 

[Eleanor]

But we are being told that the Met are planning to dig up Praia de Luz because they think a burglar might have murdered Madeleine in the apartment and buried her body nearby

What reason could they have for thinking that  ?

I mean,  there is no evidence of burglary at all  ...  nothing taken, or even disturbed and no sign of forced entry   (that's another thing,  why would this murdering burglar open the window from the inside ?  )

So the Met  presume  that a burglar was in the McCanns' apartment that night  ...  based on no more than a random possibility ...  and then  go on to  presume  that he murdered a child there  (  again, based on nothing more than a random possibility  )

I just don't believe  it

I don't believe the Met think that's what happened at all

...   and I don't think these digs have anything to do with murdering burglars

What Scotland Yard are planning to do, for which they have gained permission, is just common practice in the case of any missing person in Britain.
It wasn't done in Praia da Luz at the time.  And now it is being done

I don't really care about how badly The PJ cocked up any more, or if Amaral was largely responsible.  Things have to be eliminated.  That is what Scotland Yard are doing.  And with the permission of The Portuguese Judiciary.
And Scotland Yard are doing this.  Not The PJ.

[Mr Gray]

And why is it so important that McCann supporters portray it as such ? 

it isnt important...nothing on this forum is important..a recent guardian article supports the view that the digs are routine

[icabodcrane]

What Scotland Yard are planning to do, for which they have gained permission, is just common practice in the case of any missing person in Britain.


 Things have to be eliminated.

That is what I trying to get at Eleanor

Suppose these digs go ahead and nothing is uncovered  ...   what will have been  'eliminated'  exactly,  other than that  the missing child's body wasn't buried in any of those three locations   ?     

In terms of the investigation   what will that  mean  ...   in what way will  it be advanced  ?

[Eleanor]

So you are saying that the planned digs are merely  'routine'  police work  ? 

But to what purpose  ? 

What would digging up PDL achieve, exactly,  if it were just a matter of routine police work  ?

The only thing it would establish is that Madeleine wasn't buried  there, there ...  or there

What's next then,  'routinely'  speaking   ?   Digging up a few other random spots ?  and when they yield  nothing,  digging  up a few more  ... and on and on  ? 

There  must  be some intelligence behind the planned digs ...  I just don't see how it can relate to a burglary that doesn't even appear to have happened

Do you believe that small, girl children were assault in their beds?  Even in Praia da Luz?

If you don't, then nothing I say will make any difference.