From the Gospel according to St Goncalo of Amaral:
"During the holidays, burglaries are not rare...the theory of a burglary gone wrong could not be excluded".
Actually it was the GNR that transmitted that idea, that the child had wandered out of the house, when the PJ arrived - the "crime scene" was so blundered that the police had to put that as first possibility. That's why dozens of canine teams were immediately called on, as well as ground, sea and air searches by firefighters, municipal police, gnr,maritime police, army....and civilians. On the first day more than a thousand people was on the ground looking for Madeleine, but her parents.
Burglaries during holidays are mainly operated on empty apartments/villas, or directly on the people that are out enjoying themselves.
House burglaries are selected by the riches they can provide, which is/was not the case with OC-PDL. Just a mile away the burglars could find rich villas with profitable goods and, most importantly, empty.
I have 2 villas fully furnished with family antiques that could render a lot, and fortunately I've never been burglarized. Why would this specific apartment with nothing of value inside and 3 live kids have such unfortunate luck?!