Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?

[Anna]

Here is how I think these 3 burglaries went:

16 April 5L: burglar thinks no one is home, he enters through shuttered window on the open communal first-floor walkway, no one is home, exits with loot either via same window (or via main door if not deadlocked).

26 April 5G: burglar thinks no one is home, he enters through shuttered window on the open communal second-floor walkway, gets disturbed by Mrs F, and exits lootless via same window.

03 May 5A: burglar thinks no one is home, he opens the shuttered window (accessible from ground), but before he climbs in is disturbed by a child inside (awoken by the shutter raising noise) and flees lootless before he even enters.

That all makes sense, but where is Maddie . Did she fall out the window or did someone else come along and take her. Are you saying that she did have an accident and was concealed?

[pegasus]

That all makes sense, but where is Maddie . Did she fall out the window or did someone else come along and take her. Are you saying that she did have an accident and was concealed?

The natural reaction would be to run in the opposite direction of the opened window. So that would mean into either into the lounge, or into the other bedroom - I am not sure which. (Another possibility would be to run out onto the balcony, however I think that is less likely).

[pegasus]

Just thought they would have to get out carrying their loot too, I imagine. One holidaymaker had the TV taken  &%+((£ How silly of me..... Of course they would just walk out the front door which I believe are self locking. but in Mrs fenns case she seen him escape through the window, so a bit daft if it was next to the door or else there was a wall between door and window.
 It was her bedroom window ..I now remember!

Window of 5A which was opened is circled.
Front door of 5G is circled and to its right is the easily accessible window of 5G.
Apartment 5L is circled. Its easily accessible window is hidden because of the angle of this photo. However you can see the top of the easily accessible window of 5H on first floor walkway (just to right of white downpipe), and the equivalent easily accessible window of 5L is directly above it on second-floor walkway.
(photo credit: Haden)

[Brietta]

The natural reaction would be to run in the opposite direction of the opened window. So that would mean into either into the lounge, or into the other bedroom - I am not sure which. (Another possibility would be to run out onto the balcony, however I think that is less likely).

In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window. 
I think they used keys to enter. 
As you say empty properties were preferred suggesting surveillance, although that went wrong in Mrs Fenn’s case. 

The independent witnesses who recorded instances of men watching 5a are too numerous to ignore.

I think that taken in conjunction with the phone calls at critical times, for example when the family picked up the children from the crèche, there is compelling reason to suggest the McCanns were under surveillance. 

I also think that there was no intention to burgle 5a, I think Madeleine was targeted.

[Brietta]

Window of 5A which was opened is circled.
Front door of 5G is circled and to its right is the easily accessible window of 5G.
Apartment 5L is circled. Its easily accessible window is hidden because of the angle of this photo. However you can see the top of the easily accessible window of 5H on first floor walkway (just to right of white downpipe), and the equivalent easily accessible window of 5L is directly above it on second-floor walkway.
(photo credit: Haden)

Better angle showing shuttered windows on the upper floors, probably bedroom which would tie in with Anna's recollection.  The circle is not mine, I think it was used to illustrate lack of security lighting.

[Anna]

In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window. 
I think they used keys to enter. 
As you say empty properties were preferred suggesting surveillance, although that went wrong in Mrs Fenn’s case. 

The independent witnesses who recorded instances of men watching 5a are too numerous to ignore.

I think that taken in conjunction with the phone calls at critical times, for example when the family picked up the children from the crèche, there is compelling reason to suggest the McCanns were under surveillance. 

I also think that there was no intention to burgle 5a, I think Madeleine was targeted.

I also think it was planned, but I like to explore every avenue of possibilities.I thought it must be the front door too, but why was the window open? If it was for an escape route, then the burglaries prove that someone could get out of that window.
 Several witness, I believe saw the same man.......who was recognised and named..No statement,,,He was eliminated.
I am almost certain that he was the one that Tasmin spotted and I believe there is a photo.It was saved on my computer that died a few weeks back, but I may have a copy on the external hard drive.

[misty]

Whoever entered Mrs Fenn's apartment clearly was not an accomplished burglar. Whilst we don't know how long he was in there, it surely must have been long enough for Mrs Fenn to park in the car park, climb the stairs & walk along the short corridor. Either that, or no real reconnaissance work had been done. Nothing was taken, so....
I've always been of the opinion that Madeleine was taken purely because she fitted a specific profile but I am now wondering if she was just a more general target in a specific apartment which had been identified as ideal for an abduction of a young blonde girl.

[pegasus]

Whoever entered Mrs Fenn's apartment clearly was not an accomplished burglar. Whilst we don't know how long he was in there, it surely must have been long enough for Mrs Fenn to park in the car park, climb the stairs & walk along the short corridor. Either that, or no real reconnaissance work had been done. Nothing was taken, so....
I've always been of the opinion that Madeleine was taken purely because she fitted a specific profile but I am now wondering if she was just a more general target in a specific apartment which had been identified as ideal for an abduction of a young blonde girl.

I think Mrs F was home when the man entered her apartment.

[misty]

I think Mrs F was home when the man entered her apartment.

Even more amateurish, then, if true. It's a little difficult to know what to believe as far as Mrs Fenn is concerned - some reports say she was watching TV, others say her niece was with her at the time  - not even a precise time of day or night.

[pegasus]

"Mrs Fenn ... discovered a man scrambling out of the window. She tried to grab his ankle but he escaped."
5G has numerous windows - but only one window through which it is possible to escape without requiring then falling down or clambering down a great height.
Therefore that is the window through which the man escaped. It is the window on the first-floor communal walkway, next the 5G main door, see photos above. It is the window of the spare bedroom.

"She ...did not believe anything was taken."
This indicates the man had only just that moment entered as he had not had time to steal even a single item. Therefore the man had entered through that same window (using the same opening technique as at 5L and 5A).

(Source: Express 18 Aug 2007 http://www.mccannfiles.com/id331.html )

[Brietta]

With reference to the photograph of Apartment 5L which is dated 4th May:
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=5262.msg187507#msg187507
This apartment was apparently cleaned by MW and was presumed to be empty.  Is the door open? Certainly the shutters are not closed they are raised as the curtains can be seen.

Is there any information about who was in this apartment on the 3rd and were the cleaners allowed to clean it on the 4th?

Sorry I am mistaken, it is apt 5K owned by Moyes ... so no mystery there.

[pegasus]

The burglar-accessible shuttered windows of 5L and 5G and 5A (Based on photo by Heri)
(ETA although this 5L window is not quite as easy to access as it looks)

[sadie]

Burglar usually case a joint and tend to keep away from any property which has occupants.  They could have had their pick of any unoccupied property in PdL that night but no, they chose one right next to the tapas bar and restaurant, was lit and which had three children in it.  Not likely imo.

If Madeleine was abducted she was targeted.

 

Very good observation John

[pegasus]

Very good observation John

A burglar seeing the adults leaving a holiday flat and turning out all lights except one dim tablelamp as they leave, would certainly conclude that no-one is home.

[ferryman]

In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window. 
I think they used keys to enter. 
As you say empty properties were preferred suggesting surveillance, although that went wrong in Mrs Fenn’s case. 

The independent witnesses who recorded instances of men watching 5a are too numerous to ignore.

I think that taken in conjunction with the phone calls at critical times, for example when the family picked up the children from the crèche, there is compelling reason to suggest the McCanns were under surveillance. 

I also think that there was no intention to burgle 5a, I think Madeleine was targeted.

There was a suggestion that Mrs Fenn's intruder got in using a key ...