Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?

[pegasus]

In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window....

Well what sort of obvious signs might we expect if entry or attempted entry was by opening the shutter and window?
How about an open shutter and an open window?
Exactly as observed at the crime scenes, at 5A and at 5G.

[sadie]

A burglar seeing the adults leaving a holiday flat and turning out all lights except one dim tablelamp as they leave, would certainly conclude that no-one is home.

You could be right Pegasus, but that means the apartment WAS being watched.

[pegasus]

We already have 5G and 5L.
Here's another: An apartment very close to 5A, very similar layout of windows and doors, at about dusk, ground floor, no sign of forced entry, loot=cash/camera/mobiles, feb '07.
(Also reportedly there were burglaries of three other nearby apartments around same time, and two of those were groundfloor also.)

[misty]

We already have 5G and 5L.
Here's another: An apartment very close to 5A, similar layout, at about dusk, ground floor, no sign of forced entry, loot=cash/camera/mobiles, feb '07.
(Also reportedly there were burglaries of three other nearby apartments around same time, and two of those were groundfloor also.)

So, maybe a tip-off from someone on reception regarding occupants who have not used the safety-deposit box facility? It did puzzle me that the McCanns' passports were on display in the apartment in the CS photos - surely the most important items to be kept secure (next to your children, of course)

[pegasus]

So, maybe a tip-off from someone on reception regarding occupants who have not used the safety-deposit box facility? It did puzzle me that the McCanns' passports were on display in the apartment in the CS photos - surely the most important items to be kept secure (next to your children, of course)

I think requiring tip-offs about safe use is making it rather complicated.
Simple petty burglary is much more likely.
Add them up - the 3 burglaries I just mentioned around February, and BTW one of those was a return visit, then the two in April (5L and 5G). That makes six nearby burglaries before 5A.

[pathfinder73]

A burglar seeing the adults leaving a holiday flat and turning out all lights except one dim tablelamp as they leave, would certainly conclude that no-one is home.

In that case he would have burgled it after they left at 8:30 and that didn't happen and no valuables were stolen. If anybody was watching they would have seen many movements back and forth which would put them off. From 8:30 to 8:55 they were all getting to the tapas bar. Matt goes and checks, as soon as gets back Gerry is on his way and noticed the door had moved. So any abductor didn't have much window of opportunity to sneak inside and move that door before Gerry's check.

8:30 Kate & Gerry
8:35 Jane
8:40 Rachel & Matt
8:45 Russ
8:57 Paynes
9 Matt
9:02 Gerry

One main window of opportunity 8:45 to 8:55 when Jez was walking the streets.

[misty]

I think requiring tip-offs about safe use is making it rather complicated.
Simple petty burglary is much more likely.
Add them up - the 3 burglaries I just mentioned around February, and BTW one of those was a return visit, then the two in April (5L and 5G). That makes six nearby burglaries before 5A.

A thief doesn't normally target a place which is unlikely to have any cash or easily-disposed-of valuables lying around. Much easier if he knows in advance where there is likely to be cash etc left by a careless holidaymaker who hasn't used the OC's safety deposit system (assuming the holiday lets don't all have a room safe).

[pegasus]

A thief doesn't normally target a place which is unlikely to have any cash or easily-disposed-of valuables lying around. Much easier if he knows in advance where there is likely to be cash etc left by a careless holidaymaker who hasn't used the OC's safety deposit system (assuming the holiday lets don't all have a room safe).

I think the majority of small petty burglars have no such integrated intelligence network.
Basically it's need drugs, see holidaymakers going out and turning lights low, burgle.

[pathfinder73]

Maybe Madeleine went to the toilet!

She went twice then? You only say after 9:30 because of an open window. If Matt didn't do that 2nd check and noticed the door things would have changed. Door moves once which is strange and is found wide open before the alarm is raised - makes sense abductor has got away with Madeleine. But Matt didn't see it wide open but  the same as Gerry found it after he put it back to ajar again. Well that's what he said  Matt helped solve this case unless you think he's the abductor or Maddy woke up twice and moved the door twice. I would like to know the probability of that happening especially after Gerry said his daughter was still asleep in the exact same position at 9.

[misty]

She went twice then? You only say after 9:30 because of an open window. If Matt didn't do that 2nd check and noticed the door things would have changed. Door moves once which is strange and is found wide open before the alarm is raised - makes sense abductor has got away with Madeleine. But Matt saw it not wide open but the same as Gerry found it after he put it back to jar again. Well that's what he said  Matt helped solve this case unless you think he's the abductor or Maddy woke up twice and moved the door twice. I would like to know the probability of that happening especially after Gerry said his daughter was still asleep in the exact same position at 9.

I don't believe either Gerry or Matt would have even noticed if the door was not as Kate left it. Men tend not to notice those things (in his arguido statement Gerry couldn't even remember what Kate was wearing that night).
It's strange - when a person is asked a question they are not expecting & haven't time to think, that person tends to tell the truth - in this case, the time of the abduction. It's in the files.

[pathfinder73]

I don't believe either Gerry or Matt would have even noticed if the door was not as Kate left it. Men tend not to notice those things (in his arguido statement Gerry couldn't even remember what Kate was wearing that night).
It's strange - when a person is asked a question they are not expecting & haven't time to think, that person tends to tell the truth - in this case, the time of the abduction. It's in the files.

Oh Gerry could remember the door moving and two exact times. Don't underestimate the McCanns. But maybe they didn't count on Matt remembering it too.

[misty]

I think the majority of small petty burglars have no such integrated intelligence network.
Basically it's need drugs, see holidaymakers going out and turning lights low, burgle.

OC had 50+ new employees that season, some with criminal records. Bit of a coincidence, that spate of burglaries.
You need to know which apartments are worth breaking into - and that involves either inside knowledge or a lot of reconnaissance.

[misty]

Oh Gerry could remember the door moving and two exact times. Don't underestimate the McCanns. But maybe they didn't count on Matt remembering it too.

Has it ever been discussed that perhaps when the patio door was opened, as the checkers entered, that the through draught moved the position of the bedroom door?

[pegasus]

How many times do you think the door really moved Pathfinder?

[Brietta]

She went twice then? You only say after 9:30 because of an open window. If Matt didn't do that 2nd check and noticed the door things would have changed. Door moves once which is strange and is found wide open before the alarm is raised - makes sense abductor has got away with Madeleine. But Matt didn't see it wide open but  the same as Gerry found it after he put it back to ajar again. Well that's what he said  Matt helped solve this case unless you think he's the abductor or Maddy woke up twice and moved the door twice. I would like to know the probability of that happening especially after Gerry said his daughter was still asleep in the exact same position at 9.

At the time three different people would not be aware that the position of the door had changed ... only in retrospect when everything was being gone over in fine detail would the information be collated and the possible significance realised.