Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?

[pegasus]

More burglaries gone wrong - because the burglars didn't realise there were kids inside.
These 2 kids hid in a closet
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865600086/Two-young-girls-hide-in-closet-after-burglars-break-into-their-Ogden-home.html?pg=all
And so did these 3 kids
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2013-06-27/news/os-sanford-burglary-children-20130627_1_burglary-three-suspects-6-year-old-girl

[sadie]

I have recounted this before, but I will tell you again.

I know a boy that this happened to.  His parents were well established business people.  They had a VERY expensive collector type car parked up outside their luxury home, but it was rarely moved.

The boy, about 13 years old was in his bedroom when he heard voices and became aware that intruders were in his home.  Terrified, he locked himself in his bedroom en-suite.  The intruders came into his room but never tried the bathroom door.

They stole a number of valuables and the car.

This boy was so traumatised that even tho old enough to come home from school on his own, after that his grandparents had to pick him up and keep him at their home until his parents returned.  It must have been well over 12 months ago, but he still is very nervius and he has gone very quiet.  Withdrawn into himself, I suppose.

I dont know if he managed to call the police whilst they were there ... or just dashed to hide

[pegasus]

I have recounted this before, but I will tell you again.

I know a boy that this happened to.  His parents were well established business people.  They had a VERY expensive collector type car parked up outside their luxury home, but it was rarely moved.

The boy, about 13 years old was in his bedroom when he heard voices and became aware that intruders were in his home.  Terrified, he locked himself in his bedroom en-suite.  The intruders came into his room but never tried the bathroom door.

They stole a number of valuables and the car.

This boy was so traumatised that even tho old enough to come home from school on his own, after that his grandparents had to pick him up and keep him at their home until his parents returned.  It must have been well over 12 months ago, but he still is very nervius and he has gone very quiet.  Withdrawn into himself, I suppose.

I dont know if he managed to call the police whilst they were there ... or just dashed to hide

Yes if the intruder enters in another part of the house, the intelligent response of the child is to stay in his/her bedroom and hide there, either in a closet, or (in the case you recount) in the child bedroom ensuite.

But if the attempted entry is via the child bedroom window, the intelligent response of the child is to exit that room fast, and either
(A) go into another bedroom and hide in a closet there, or
(B) go into the lounge and hide behind a sofa which is up against a wall.

[Brietta]

Yes if the intruder enters in another part of the house, the intelligent response of the child is to stay in his/her bedroom and hide there, either in a closet, or (in the case you recount) in the child bedroom ensuite.

But if the attempted entry is via the child bedroom window, the intelligent response of the child is to exit that room fast, and either
(A) go into another bedroom and hide in a closet there, or
(B) go into the lounge and hide behind a sofa which is up against a wall.

Then what?
If the sofa was up against a wall how could she hide behind it?

[pegasus]

Then what?
If the sofa was up against a wall how could she hide behind it?

I have only got as far as going into another room and hiding, which would be an intelligent response to an attempted burglary in the initial room, and there are plenty of precedents for it

And sorry I meant fairly close to the wall, for example 20 cm. However, in the numerous other cases of attempted burglaries of residences containing home-alone kids, there are quite a few closet examples but I found no sofa examples at all yet.

[pegasus]

This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out.
He is in his bedroom.
Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.

This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.

So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM

Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:

1. Went into a different room
Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.

2. In that other room, hid.
Sensible, become invisible.

[Wonderfulspam]

This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out.
He is in his bedroom.
Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.

This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.

So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM

Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:

1. Went into a different room
Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.

2. In that other room, hid.
Sensible, become invisible.

Right yes we got that, so then what?

[Brietta]

This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out.
He is in his bedroom.
Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.

This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.

So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM

Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:

1. Went into a different room
Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.

2. In that other room, hid.
Sensible, become invisible.

I don’t think entry was attempted via the window, I think the window was opened after entry via the door, whether the unlocked veranda or the wooden door using a key, I have no idea. 

I don’t think it was an attempted burglary gone wrong, I think Madeleine was the target from the word go. 

There were too many witnesses to strange behaviour in the immediate vicinity of the apartment to ignore that there could be a connection to what happened to Madeleine. 
I do not believe any of these strangely behaved and odd looking men were traced and eliminated from the inquiry and surely that was a grave failure on the part of the investigators.

[pegasus]

Right yes we got that, so then what?

Well there have been many cases of a child, at home unsupervised, hiding in response to an attempted burglary. I posted only a fraction of them. And obviously if the attempted entry is in the same room, the response is to go to a different room. So that much is fairly straightforward, requiring no convoluted assumptions, every component can be shown to have happened in other cases. Also already the positions of shutter, window, and internal door - the entire scene in that north bedroom - are explained. As for what happened next, I don't exactly know.

[Anna]

This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out.
He is in his bedroom.
Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.

This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.

So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM

Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:

1. Went into a different room
Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.

2. In that other room, hid.
Sensible, become invisible.

But she wasnt even 4 yet. She wouldn't think to run anywhere.
I doubt she had ever come into contact with an untrustworthy adult.

[Brietta]

But she wasnt even 4 yet. She wouldn't think to run anywhere.
I doubt she had ever come into contact with an untrustworthy adult.

I think a child of that age would not comprehend the implication of an intruder with wicked intent; if frightened I think her idea of 'hiding' would be under her bed covers while cuddling something for comfort, either her soft toy or her blanket.  I don't think she would run to hide.

Heri has demonstrated how a child could have been easily lifted out of the open window if curious enough to approach.

[pegasus]

But she wasnt even 4 yet. She wouldn't think to run anywhere.
I doubt she had ever come into contact with an untrustworthy adult.

Are you proposing that a 3 year old in bed, seeing someone opening the window of her room from outside, would not be capable of thinking to get out of bed and go into another room?

IMO 3-year olds are intelligent - here is a video of a 3-year-old girl who, when her dad suddenly became unconscious, walked (without any help or instruction) to the fire station to alert the paramedics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs-S7n9yUTc

[pegasus]

The difference is that I dont think that she woke and walked.,  I think she had been drugged either at the crech or at tea time.

You go on about the noise of the shutter being opened.

The abductor would be as quiet as humanely possible, and have you thought about the fact that if he opened it from outside, the window inside was still closed and would considerably deaden the sound.  I imagine the window would then slide open pretty quietly.

I believe s/he came in via the front door using a key.  Tis the obvious way in and seems this method had been used on several other apartments in the days/weeks before..

Someone was giving them access to keys, it seems.

The opening technique is 1. lift the shutter a little, 2. slide the window open, 3. reach in to raise shutter fully using the strap. It is that last part which makes the loud noise, and this is loud inside the room because it comes after sliding the window open.

[sadie]

The opening technique is 1. lift the shutter a little, 2. slide the window open, 3. reach in to raise shutter fully using the strap. It is that last part which makes the loud noise, and this is loud inside the room because it comes after sliding the window open.

But I dont think it was opened very high, was it?  You may be right tho.

I wonder just how noisy it was.  Must ring Heri., but not tonight.  Too late and I am tired .

[Anna]

The opening technique is 1. lift the shutter a little, 2. slide the window open, 3. reach in to raise shutter fully using the strap. It is that last part which makes the loud noise, and this is loud inside the room because it comes after sliding the window open.

If the children were oblivious to noise, it wouldn't have mattered. But why were they knocked out and how? It could only have been drugs or a chloroform type of substance like gas or such like, but on second thoughts.....I know the sea air and activities that they participated in must have made them tired.
 My children, if tired enough, would sleep throughout a journey or a noisy celebration/party and storms that shook the windows, so it's difficult to tell really.