Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?

[pegasus]

I hope police have located the exact inspection cover which the witness states was off.
To determine service type and possibly pipe diameter.
Possibly irrelevant but needs to be checked to rule it out
It would be possible if a person was rushing in the dark, to fall down.

[John]

I hope police have located the exact inspection cover which the witness states was off.
To determine service type and possibly pipe diameter.
Possibly irrelevant but needs to be checked to rule it out
It would be possible if a person was rushing in the dark, to fall down.

Absolutely and then disappear under the town never to emerge on the beach.

As far as the opening post and the theme of this thread is concerned, I have never believed a failed burglary was ever a serious contender as a reason for an abduction in this case.  Fact is, burglars steal property, not children.

[Alice Purjorick]

Absolutely and then disappear under the town never to emerge on the beach.

As far as the opening post and the theme of this thread is concerned, I have never believed a failed burglary was ever a serious contender as a reason for an abduction in this case.  Fact is, burglars steal property, not children.

True and the "Manual of Burglar Tactics" says stay out of kids rooms because there is rarely anything of value in there!

[pegasus]

Absolutely and then disappear under the town never to emerge on the beach.

As far as the opening post and the theme of this thread is concerned, I have never believed a failed burglary was ever a serious contender as a reason for an abduction in this case.  Fact is, burglars steal property, not children.

But might not a failed burglary increase risk of accident?

[pegasus]

As I mentioned before, there was an earlier burglary of another nearby apartment which is ground floor and importantly is identical in layout of rooms, window positions, door positions, and the sloping ground whch makes the 3 side windows too high above the ground to reach.

So at this other apartment, and exactly the same at 5A, the burglar cannot choose freely from the 4 windows, because 3 are ruled out by being too high above the sloping ground, he is limited in choice strictly to the one and only north window, the one which is reachable from the ground.

Just to make it clear, this is not 5G and it is not 5L, it is another one very nearby, ground floor.

IMO if that earlier burglary were investigated it seems likely to be found that entry was probably through the one and only window accessible from the ground (the exact equivalent same window as entry was IMO attempted into at 5A but inevitably disturbed before actual entry).

[John]

Burglars must not be confused with sneak thief's.  The latter are opportunists and will take such opportunities which present to them such as an open door or unlocked window.  They normally keep well clear of any property which might be occupied.  The burglar on the other hand will seek out a target days or even weeks ahead and do some ground work before attempting to enter.  The burglar is only interested in small high value items which are easily disposed of.  They will not normally risk entry to a property which is occupied or has children within.  There are of course always exceptions to any rule.

[pegasus]

Burglars must not be confused with sneak thief's.  The latter are opportunists and will take such opportunities which present to them such as an open door or unlocked window.  They normally keep well clear of any property which might be occupied.  The burglar on the other hand will seek out a target days or even weeks ahead and do some ground work before attempting to enter.  The burglar is only interested in small high value items which are easily disposed of.  They will not normally risk entry to a property which is occupied or has children within.  There are of course always exceptions to any rule.

I think the tactic was - wait til dark when many tourists are out for a meal. Go along the north side of building (invisible from tapas) testing the one accessible window of every apartment that looks like no-one is in (yes 5A looked like no-one was in). The test is quick - takes only a few seconds - lift the shutter a few inches and with other hand try to slide window open. If it doesn't open - no problem - gently let the shutter back down - no trace left - move on and test next apartment's window.

5A and the other identical groundfloor apartment (successful burglary) both had exactly one accessible window each, invisible from tapas area, on the north side, as did 5L (successful burglary) and 5G (disturbed burglary) even though they are upstairs, and we even know that the window was opened at both 5G and 5A.

[John]

Thing is though, why take a chance with an apartment which is seen on all three sides and so close to the activities when there were hundreds of other one far away from prying eyes?

[Alice Purjorick]

Thing is though, why take a chance with an apartment which is seen on all three sides and so close to the activities when there were hundreds of other one far away from prying eyes?

It was an inexperienced burglar let out on his own for the first time? No sensei and not having read his Manual of Burglary Tactics properly?.
The trouble is most posters do not realise that burglary is a "living" and about 90 odd percent remain undetected. That is because the burglars do not take unnecessary risks. Busting in to a place on a lit road junction ain't exactly the smoothest of burglary moves.
Any way sir I bow to your superior knowledge of the subject.

[Eleanor]

I still think Madeleine was targeted as a child for sale, hopefully to a family.

[Wonderfulspam]

I still think Madeleine was targeted as a child for sale, hopefully to a family.

......By an abductor who had a key to the front door, & who hung around in the apartment moving the door back & forth & opened the window & shutters for some reason, before making off on foot.

Genius.

[Miss Taken Identity]

It was an inexperienced burglar let out on his own for the first time? No sensei and not having read his Manual of Burglary Tactics properly?.
The trouble is most posters do not realise that burglary is a "living" and about 90 odd percent remain undetected. That is because the burglars do not take unnecessary risks. Busting in to a place on a lit road junction ain't exactly the smoothest of burglary moves.
Any way sir I bow to your superior knowledge of the subject.

Shame on you ALICE, omitting the other fact: THE CHILDREN WERE BEING CHECKED every half hour.  Boy they took a grave chance of being caught.

And what about that close shave by Gerry?  He 'felt someone was in the apartment'...but he left them all alone anyway without checking. lucky buggars...oops sorry typo - meant Burglars.



I loved that 'cover story' she was taken by a childless couple who will look after her'  Oh I did want that to be true... but it deflected from the reality of the situation. The hard core fact- that sonething very sinister had taken place and they didn't want to talk about that.

..And to be very fair, I can understand that- no one wants to visit places in their heads which make them feel uncomfortable.

[pathfinder73]

I think the tactic was - wait til dark when many tourists are out for a meal. Go along the north side of building (invisible from tapas) testing the one accessible window of every apartment that looks like no-one is in (yes 5A looked like no-one was in). The test is quick - takes only a few seconds - lift the shutter a few inches and with other hand try to slide window open. If it doesn't open - no problem - gently let the shutter back down - no trace left - move on and test next apartment's window.

5A and the other identical groundfloor apartment (successful burglary) both had exactly one accessible window each, invisible from tapas area, on the north side, as did 5L (successful burglary) and 5G (disturbed burglary) even though they are upstairs, and we even know that the window was opened at both 5G and 5A.

People started arriving at the tapas bar at various times from 8:35 to 9pm walking past that apartment. Matt went to check, then Gerry talking to Jez outside it then Jane etc.. If that apartment was being watched do you think they would try with all the people going past it? Anybody would be crazy to try. Matt didn't notice no window open (no draught nevermind whooshing curtains!) at 9:30. Then Jane leaves at 9:37 passes the apartment. Russell returns at 9:45 passes the apartment and Kate goes to check at 9:51. So when did this abductor/burglar strike? Between Russell and Kate (a 5 minute window of opportunity) because she said a window was open  &%+((£

[Alice Purjorick]

Yeah well! were I a burglar at holiday resort I would want to knock over the place when I was pretty sure no one would be in.
Now when would that be at a holiday resort? try 10:00 to about 1630.
Were I an opportunist thief I would hang around the markets and beaches to lift purses, wallets ,cameras and i-phones.

[slartibartfast]

People started arriving at the tapas bar at various times from 8:35 to 9pm walking past that apartment. Matt went to check, then Gerry talking to Jez outside it then Jane etc.. If that apartment was being watched do you think they would try with all the people going past it? Anybody would be crazy to try. Matt didn't notice no window open (no draught nevermind whooshing curtains!) at 9:30. Then Jane leaves at 9:37 passes the apartment. Russell returns at 9:45 passes the apartment and Kate goes to check at 9:51. So when did this abductor/burglar strike? Between Russell and Kate (a 5 minute window of opportunity) because she said a window was open  &%+((£

Agreed, the timeline and abduction/burglary are fairly mutually exclusive.