Why the abduction theory is both improbable and implausible...

[Carew]

This thread is for you to tell us why you believe abduction to be both improbable and implausible, not for me to justify my opinions, so over to you...

I`ll leave your thread, then, thanks.

You evidently feel that the two points I questioned are not a hindrance to your "opinion" as you call it in your quote.

They obviously are to me, or I wouldn`t have brought them up.

[Alfred R Jones]

The area in the immediate vicinity of 5A is very quiet at night on every night after about 8PM for a simple reason.
There is no commercial venture open for a radius of perhaps 100m-150m at that time of night, with the exception of the Tapas.
During the day, the road beside 5A is on the normal route from the one-way system to Baptista (plus Commercial Centre) and it buzzes with traffic like flies on sugar.
At night it is much more quiet.  Shutters get drawn.  Locals go indoor to cook a meal.  Turistas wander on foot to wherever they get half board.
The comment quoted above is correct.  The T9 say shuttles were happening.  Raj Balu and Neil Berry say their foursome was overlooking the Tapas entrance.  The visitor to 605 says she was driven past block 5 shortly after 9.58.
If that lot is all true, the area was on hyper-drive.

So, is it your opinion then that abduction is an improbable and implausible theory?  Incidentally, if what you are saying is correct then it follows that for the same reasons it is unlikely that Madeleine woke and wandered as she would undoubtedly have spotted by someone involved in the hyer-drive activity going on around the apartment. 

[Alfred R Jones]

I`ll leave your thread, then, thanks.

You evidently feel that the two points I questioned are not a hindrance to your "opinion" as you call it in your quote.

They obviously are to me, or I wouldn`t have brought them up.

So you have no opinion as to why abduction is both implausible and improbable?  That surprises me.

[Alfred R Jones]

Laugh all you like alfred.

There is not a shred of evidence of abduction.

So it would appear you like to live in cloud cuckoo land.

You do indeed have a lot in common with the second comers.

Now tell me Alfred, why would an abductor remove an older chil!d rather than a younger bone, who would have fewer memories and be a lot easier to handle ?

As you know paedophile rings have been questioned and again, no trace of Madeleine has been revealed.

Perhaps sdhe is living with a really nice family who have never heard of this story.

Did you read the post in which I stated what I think happened to Madeleine?  Where do "easier to handle" and "having fewer memories" come into play with a child that you intend to abuse and murder?  I do not know why the abductor preferred Madeleine to either of her siblings, I'd rather not get into the mind of such an individual if that's OK with you?

[ShiningInLuz]

So, is it your opinion then that abduction is an improbable and implausible theory?  Incidentally, if what you are saying is correct then it follows that for the same reasons it is unlikely that Madeleine woke and wandered as she would undoubtedly have spotted by someone involved in the hyer-drive activity going on around the apartment.

Following a planned abduction hypothesis, I made planned abduction work on my blog perhaps a month or 6 weeks ago.  It worked.

It could be done, even if all the T9 checks are real, even if the Carpenter evidence is accurate, even if the waiter and barman statements are accurate, even if the Balu/Berry statements are accurate.

The idea that it could be done does not say that it was done.  There are other alternatives, which could have happened.

[Alfred R Jones]

Following a planned abduction hypothesis, I made planned abduction work on my blog perhaps a month or 6 weeks ago.  It worked.

It could be done, even if all the T9 checks are real, even if the Carpenter evidence is accurate, even if the waiter and barman statements are accurate, even if the Balu/Berry statements are accurate.

The idea that it could be done does not say that it was done.  There are other alternatives, which could have happened.

Thank you.  Have you described these alternatives on your blog in any detail?  I have been waiting 8 years to read a plausible, logical alternative to the abduction theory so would be interested to read what you have to say on the matter.

[slartibartfast]

Following a planned abduction hypothesis, I made planned abduction work on my blog perhaps a month or 6 weeks ago.  It worked.

It could be done, even if all the T9 checks are real, even if the Carpenter evidence is accurate, even if the waiter and barman statements are accurate, even if the Balu/Berry statements are accurate.

The idea that it could be done does not say that it was done.  There are other alternatives, which could have happened.

MI PdL.....

[sadie]

The area in the immediate vicinity of 5A is very quiet at night on every night after about 8PM for a simple reason.
There is no commercial venture open for a radius of perhaps 100m-150m at that time of night, with the exception of the Tapas.
During the day, the road beside 5A is on the normal route from the one-way system to Baptista (plus Commercial Centre) and it buzzes with traffic like flies on sugar.
At night it is much more quiet.  Shutters get drawn.  Locals go indoor to cook a meal.  Turistas wander on foot to wherever they get half board.
The comment quoted above is correct.  The T9 say shuttles were happening.  Raj Balu and Neil Berry say their foursome was overlooking the Tapas entrance.  The visitor to 605 says she was driven past block 5 shortly after 9.58.
If that lot is all true, the area was on hyper-drive.

When we were there in mid-summer 2010 [june or july, not sure which now] the road alonside 5A towards to Baptista supermarket was dead as a dodo in the middle of the day, and at night..  Busier this last visit, but still very quiet


Maybe Batista Supermarket closes for a siesta for several hours in the heat of the day in mid summer?  Can you confirm, Shining?

[ShiningInLuz]

Thank you.  Have you described these alternatives on your blog in any detail?  I have been waiting 8 years to read a plausible, logical alternative to the abduction theory so would be interested to read what you have to say on the matter.

Please don't hold your breath.  I have been active on this from roughly since the time SY decided it was time to visit Luz last year, so I am playing catch up.

There is a small amount on my blog about all theories that I am aware of. The problem is I have just researched one single topic, phone calls in/around Luz on/around 3 May 2007, taking me about 3 - 4 days, and I would consider I have made about one small step forward.

I know that I will not be cracking this case any time in the near future.

[pathfinder73]

You are obsessed with the Second Coming theory but that is not what this thread is about.  Personally I think the abduction theory is the ONLY plausible explanation for Madeleine's disappearance as I am still waiting to hear an alternative that is remotely convincing.  That said there are people who maintain that abduction is a ridiculous theory and it is to those people that this thread is appealing.

18:30 3 May 2007

Gerry had asked me just to pop in and check everything was alright err with Kate or you know again I can't remember the exact reason whether he was just making sure it was alright that he could stay there and you know more time but you know he'd asked me to pop in. (DP)

18H30, the time at which he saw DP next to the tennis court. DAVID went to visit KATE and the children and returned close to 19H00, trying to convince the deponent to continue to play tennis, to which [entreaty] he did not accede as he had already been plying for about an hour and had to go back to to his wife. (GM)

After showering, at around 6:30/6:40PM and while she was getting dry, she heard somebody knocking at the veranda door. She wrapped herself in a towel and went to see who it was. This door was closed but not locked as Gerry had left by this door. She confirmed it was David Payne. (KM)

1485 "But could you remember what Kate was wearing for example''
 Reply "I can't, no.' (DP)

[ShiningInLuz]

When we were there in mid-summer 2010 [june or july, not sure which now] the road alonside 5A towards to Baptista supermarket was dead as a dodo in the middle of the day, and at night..  Busier this last visit, but still very quiet


Maybe Batista Supermarket closes for a siesta for several hours in the heat of the day in mid summer?  Can you confirm, Shining?

The one-way traffic system in Luz in 2007 forced traffic from the North, West and East into the road past 5A.

By 2010, Spar had opened up.  All the rules changed.

Where were you?  Which supermarket did you use?

[stephen25000]

Did you read the post in which I stated what I think happened to Madeleine?  Where do "easier to handle" and "having fewer memories" come into play with a child that you intend to abuse and murder?  I do not know why the abductor preferred Madeleine to either of her siblings, I'd rather not get into the mind of such an individual if that's OK with you?

'child that you intend to abuse and murder'

So where did you get this from ?

Are you therefore saying Madeleine was murdered ?

That is the direct implication.

Meanwhile absolutely nothing in the way of evidence of abduction, whilst SY continue to spend tax payers money.

[Benice]

'child that you intend to abuse and murder'

So where did you get this from ?

Are you therefore saying Madeleine was murdered ?

That is the direct implication.

Meanwhile absolutely nothing in the way of evidence of abduction, whilst SY continue to spend tax payers money.

Do you accept Stephen that evidence of an abduction may have been destroyed because of the amount of traffic in 5A before it was cordoned off?    A simple yes or no will do.

[stephen25000]

Do you accept Stephen that evidence of an abduction may have been destroyed because of the amount of traffic in 5A before it was cordoned off?    A simple yes or no will do.

Do you accept evidence of accidental death could have been destroyed in the amount of traffic in 5A ?

A simple Yes or No will suffice.

and we know who was responsible for that.

[Mr Gray]

'child that you intend to abuse and murder'

So where did you get this from ?

Are you therefore saying Madeleine was murdered ?

That is the direct implication.

Meanwhile absolutely nothing in the way of evidence of abduction, whilst SY continue to spend tax payers money.

it is more than likely that Maddie has been murdered