"Charity collectors" data

[pegasus]

is this a fact or an assumption?

It is a fact evidenced by other cases Alf.
For example, this burglar in Nottinghamshire ran away as soon as he saw a child was in the house.
"He checked behind the door where she was hiding and they were face to face. Then he ran away."
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Home-face-face-burglar/story-28038540-detail/story.html

[Alfred R Jones]

It is a fact evidenced by other cases Alf.
For example, this burglar in Nottinghamshire ran away as soon as he saw a child was in the house.
"He checked behind the door where she was hiding and they were face to face. Then he ran away."
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Home-face-face-burglar/story-28038540-detail/story.html

No it's an assumption.  You cannot claim it is a fact that ALL burglars behave in a similar way based on the behaviour of one burglar.  That's ridiculous.

[G-Unit]

No it's an assumption.  You cannot claim it is a fact that ALL burglars behave in a similar way based on the behaviour of one burglar.  That's ridiculous.

How many cases of burglar turned abductor are there? Is it common? People are quite happy to accept that possibility, it seems.

[Heriberto Janosch]

How many cases of burglar turned abductor are there? Is it common? People are quite happy to accept that possibility, it seems.

Do not ask if it is common. Ask if it is possible.

[stephen25000]

Do not ask if it is common. Ask if it is possible.

That implicitly applies to other scenarios.

[jassi]

Do not ask if it is common. Ask if it is possible.

Something being possible is not the same as it being likely.

[Heriberto Janosch]

Something being possible is not the same as it being likely.

90% of ALL past crimes were carried out by males 16-30 yo. So next unrelated crime MUST be carry out by male 16-30 yo? It cannot be carry out by woman 50 yo, for example?

Think about possibility, not likelihood.

Exaggerating  ... Imagine 100% of past crimes of type X were carried out by males 16-30 yo. Could you be sure next unrelated type X crime will be not carry out by woman 50 yo?

[G-Unit]

Do not ask if it is common. Ask if it is possible.

At the time of the archiving of the PJ investigation all possibiles were still open;

Despite all of this, it was not possible to obtain any piece of evidence that would allow for a medium man, under the light of the criteria of logics, of normality and of the general rules of experience, to formulate any lucid, sensate, serious and honest conclusion about the circumstances under which the child was removed from the apartment (whether dead or alive, whether killed in a neglectful homicide or an intended homicide, whether the victim of a targeted abduction or an opportunistic abduction), nor even to produce a consistent prognosis about her destiny and inclusively - the most dramatic - to establish whether she is still alive or if she is dead, as seems more likely.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/LEGAL_SUMMARY.htm

Despite this, you have decided, based on your 'system analysis' that the parents can be excluded from suspicion. It would be most interesting to know how that works?

[jassi]

90% of ALL past crimes were carried out by males 16-30 yo. So next unrelated crime MUST be carry out by male 16-30 yo? It cannot be carry out by woman 50 yo, for example?

Think about possibility, not likelihood.

Exaggerating  ... Imagine 100% of past crimes of type X were carried out by males 16-30 yo. Could you be sure next unrelated type X crime will be not carry out by woman 50 yo?

No, but on the basis of past experience, you would exclude male suspects first as there would be a greater likely hood of a result.

[Angelo222]

Do not ask if it is common. Ask if it is possible.

Tell me Heriberto, what is your take on the Maddie case, do you accept the abduction claim?

[Alfred R Jones]

How many cases of burglar turned abductor are there? Is it common? People are quite happy to accept that possibility, it seems.

No, it's not common but it has happened, so what is your point?  It's not every day that a father carries the uncovered corpse of his daughter through a holiday village to throw it in a bin but that is precisely the scenario that a significant percentage of McCann sceptics believe happened.  Not you maybe, but you at least appear to tolerate this view and don't question its likelihood.

[pathfinder73]

90% of ALL past crimes were carried out by males 16-30 yo. So next unrelated crime MUST be carry out by male 16-30 yo? It cannot be carry out by woman 50 yo, for example?

Think about possibility, not likelihood.

Exaggerating  ... Imagine 100% of past crimes of type X were carried out by males 16-30 yo. Could you be sure next unrelated type X crime will be not carry out by woman 50 yo?

It could be anyone but let's not kid ourselves and follow leads that don't relate to the actual evidence. There were no glove marks, no evidence of any phantom passing through that tiny narrow window facing a lit car park. None of the tapas 7 saw it open and fingerprints were discovered on the alleged open window. You could target far easier apartments than one facing two roads right next to where they were. No evidence of a getaway car, no sounds, no nothing. She disappeared so you follow up on independent prime suspect witness evidence.

[pegasus]

I want to highlight something else about that case of a burglary in Nottinghamshire.

"The girl ... was alone for just 15 minutes"

Leaving children home alone exposes them to the serious risk of a burglary happening.

[pegasus]

"Tips For Kids To Stay Safe From Burglars When Home Alone.
... Usually, when someone knocks on the door and a child is home alone, they get quiet and hide; but if that person is a burglar, that's the worst thing they can do. Instead, what they should do is make lots of noise. ... Police say the vast majority of burglars want to hit an empty house, so, to make sure no one is home they knock on doors and windows first. ... To keep burglars out, kids should make noise - blast the TV or yell something like ‘Dad, someone's at the door ..."
http://www.newson6.com/story/31383222/tips-for-kids-to-stay-safe-from-burglars-when-home-alone

[G-Unit]

No, it's not common but it has happened, so what is your point?  It's not every day that a father carries the uncovered corpse of his daughter through a holiday village to throw it in a bin but that is precisely the scenario that a significant percentage of McCann sceptics believe happened.  Not you maybe, but you at least appear to tolerate this view and don't question its likelihood.

I can't find examples of either scenario having happened before. What I do know is that Madeleine disappeared. At the time of her disappearance she was either alive or she was dead. If she was alive she either left on her own or she was taken away by someone. If she was dead her body was taken away by someone and it was either covered or uncovered. People can speculate on all the different possibilities but no-one knows what actually happened. Therefore all scenarios remain possible and can't be ruled out, no matter how unlikely they may appear to some.