Author Topic: "We must reconstruct Maddie’s fateful night" says former Portuguese police chief.  (Read 190851 times)

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Offline Mr Gray

You have misunderstood the parachute example in my opinion. The evidence isn't poor, it's not 'scientific'.
http://io9.gizmodo.com/can-a-parachute-save-your-life-not-according-to-scienc-1556426507

 We all agree that using a parachute when leaping out of a plane is sensible because we all understand gravity and that falling from a great height isn't a good idea. That is 'common sense' - everyone agrees with it, it's a common opinion.

Cleary your assumption that OG have investigated the McCanns isn't 'common sense' because some think they have, some think they haven't and no-one actually knows.

there are quite a few articles on this subject...the evidence is poor re parachutes...though common sense tells us otherwise. I first heard it several  years ago on a lecture discussing assessing evidence.......


you can argue by splitting hairs ...its the underlying message that's important

Offline Mr Gray

You have misunderstood the parachute example in my opinion. The evidence isn't poor, it's not 'scientific'.
http://io9.gizmodo.com/can-a-parachute-save-your-life-not-according-to-scienc-1556426507

 We all agree that using a parachute when leaping out of a plane is sensible because we all understand gravity and that falling from a great height isn't a good idea. That is 'common sense' - everyone agrees with it, it's a common opinion.

Cleary your assumption that OG have investigated the McCanns isn't 'common sense' because some think they have, some think they haven't and no-one actually knows.

so you think SY haven't interviewed the mcCanns. If they are investigating abduction they need to speak in detail to the mccanns to get the tiniest detail that may be important.....or do you suppose they relied upon the twice translated non verbatim statements

Offline G-Unit

there are quite a few articles on this subject...the evidence is poor re parachutes...though common sense tells us otherwise. I first heard it several  years ago on a lecture discussing assessing evidence.......


you can argue by splitting hairs ...its the underlying message that's important

Common sense tells us what gravity and falls do to us. Common sense can't tell us what Operation Grange have done. The two things aren't comparable.
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Offline Mr Gray

Common sense tells us what gravity and falls do to us. Common sense can't tell us what Operation Grange have done. The two things aren't comparable.

so you think that SY ....investigating an abduction....have not spoken to the final two people to see maddie before her disappearance...remember common sense...

Offline G-Unit

so you think SY haven't interviewed the mcCanns. If they are investigating abduction they need to speak in detail to the mccanns to get the tiniest detail that may be important.....or do you suppose they relied upon the twice translated non verbatim statements

Interviewing them about an abduction is quite different from investigating them about a disappearance and ruling them out of any involvement.
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Offline Mr Gray

Interviewing them about an abduction is quite different from investigating them about a disappearance and ruling them out of any involvement.

so now you are saying that they would have been interviewed...even though there is no evidence...apart from common sense of course

Offline misty

Interviewing them about an abduction is quite different from investigating them about a disappearance and ruling them out of any involvement.

Do you really believe that SY made the same mistakes as the PJ when they drew everything back to zero?

Offline G-Unit

so now you are saying that they would have been interviewed...even though there is no evidence...apart from common sense of course

I wasn't even discussing that subject, I was still discussing these assertions;

I think the remit was written after the McCanns had been interviewed and ruled out (davel)

You speculate that the Mccanns have not been investigated then criticise me for suggesting they have. (davel)

If you want my opinion on whether OG interviewed the McCanns about the abduction we can discuss that instead, but do try not to change the subject of the discussion in the middle of it.
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Offline G-Unit

Do you really believe that SY made the same mistakes as the PJ when they drew everything back to zero?

I don't even understand the question. Which of the PJ's alleged mistakes are you referring to?
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Offline slartibartfast

https://www.ismp.org/newsletters/acutecare/articles/20040129.asp

Are you serious? Are you suggesting that the evidence re parachutes is poor as there isn't a control group in their testing?

“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline misty

I don't even understand the question. Which of the PJ's alleged mistakes are you referring to?

See your post #352.

Offline Alice Purjorick

Are you serious? Are you suggesting that the evidence re parachutes is poor as there isn't a control group in their testing?

There is an informal one called The Caterpillar Club.
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline mercury

Does this mean that unless/until the case is solved, no person who was made an arguido can claim to have been exonerated from suspicion once their arguido status is removed?

The McCanns friends were never made arguidos - so what is their status now IYO?

1) pretty much but with a  proviso - how things develop one way or the other, if they are eliminated as suspects/original alibis/new evidence supporting or not/ie if they are remaining persons of interest/general police thinking on matters - cold cases are very difficult eta: iirc arguido status is removed automatically if a case is shelved, ie having no bearing necessarily on "suspicion",someone will correct ths if its wrong
2) i dont recall any of them being suspected as an abductor or involved

« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 11:02:08 PM by mercury »

Offline G-Unit

See your post #352.

I'm sorry, misty, I still don't understand your point.  8(8-))
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Offline misty

I'm sorry, misty, I still don't understand your point.  8(8-))

You have said that common sense cannot tell us what OG have done in respect of interviewing the parents.
They drew everything back to zero. A disappearance allegedly facilitated by an open window.
If you refer to the methodology T.I.E. as used by English police in this type of major incident you must surely agree that the parents must have been evaluated and eliminated to the extent of DCI Redwood's statement confirming they are not suspects. To say that the parents have not been fully investigated would put OG on a par with the original investigation led by GA which is an insult to both our elite police officers & operational systems.