My opinion? I think they were threatening Kate. And they had already lied to her
They let her leave because they had No Evidence.
I assess this supposed deal in the following manner.
The PJ would not have brought it to Carlos' attention if they thought their case was strong. I understand (Kate's book?) that there was a long discussion between the PJ and Carlos, seemingly about the 'evidence', before Carlos explained the law to the McCanns.
Speculation now follows. My expectation is that the dogs were positioned as ultra-reliable, never failed blah blah blah. My expectation is the DNA evidence was relayed as being strong. In such a situation, it would have been remiss of Carlos not to discuss the 2 year option with Kate and it would have been remiss of Carlos not to recommend the 'no comment' route once arguidoed.
I have no reason to expect that Carlos had the expertise to assess the dog 'evidence' directly. I have no reason to expect that Carlos had the expertise to assess the DNA evidence directly.
If Kate had admitted to body disposal there was basically no way this could have been disproved by the PJ. As an arguida, she was entitled to say 'no comment' to anything that might incriminate her more, thus scuppering further progress by the PJ.
Here's the part being missed, the bit supporters cannot see.
Bringing the 2 year option to Carlos, Kate and Gerry should have been a very clear signal to all 3 that the PJ at that point in time were unable to prove body disposal or homicide i.e. that the case they had was weak.
That they did not have sufficient evidence to charge or to take Kate to court re either body concealment or body disposal.
There was no deal. The PJ were cage-rattling in the hope that something would fall out before Kate and Gerry left for England.
At that point in time, I cannot tell if the PJ believed the line they had been fed about the wonder dogs. Questions put later to Martin Grime suggest to me that a wonder dog capability had been fed to them, and that they had not performed an independent verification.
Carlos, Kate and Gerry failed to identify that the McCanns were in a strong position.
I believe this is confirmed in their freedom of movement. From memory, it was also confirmed in their arguido interviews, where they were put on the lowest level of arguidodom, but I would need to check that point again.
