What If. What if Kate had not discovered Madeleine missing that night?

[Robittybob1]

Good job that door kept moving & the wind blew it shut or Kate would not have visually checked at all, and Madeleine might not have been discovered missing until the morning.

Was it a bad thing the discovery was found that night?  What would have been the problem if it was discovered at 8:00 AM next morning? 

My first thought was that there wouldn't have been all the disturbance of the crime scene and possibly the case may have been solved (which is a good thing for the UK taxpayers but a bad thing for the perpetrators.)
How would this scenario, using your own pet theory, play out if Kate had just accepted "all is quiet" and went back for her dessert?

[jassi]

As Spammy said, problem with alibi. The Mcanns would have none, except each other, which wouldn't count for much.
The trail would have been much colder, an abductor having been long gone across borders, if such was the case.
People on here have gone on about 'the golden hour'. Well, in that scenario  that hour could have been up to 10 hours previously, so PJ would be at considerable disadvantage.
There wouldn't have been any searching in the dark, of course, so perhaps a better coordinated approach to that.

[Robittybob1]

As Spammy said, problem with alibi. The Mcanns would have none, except each other, which wouldn't count for much.
The trail would have been much colder, an abductor having been long gone across borders, if such was the case.
People on here have gone on about 'the golden hour'. Well, in that scenario  that hour could have been up to 10 hours previously, so PJ would be at considerable disadvantage.
There wouldn't have been any searching in the dark, of course, so perhaps a better coordinated approach to that.

Usually I understand your logic immediately Jassi but you lost me here.

Like someone said on the forum yesterday there are two options
1. the McCanns did it or
2.  Someone else did it.

"As Spammy said, problem with alibi. The Mcanns would have none, except each other, which wouldn't count for much."  That must be from the POV that the McCanns did it.
Yet:
"The trail would have been much colder, an abductor having been long gone across borders, if such was the case." POV the McCanns didn't do it.

Are you arguing both cases at the same time?

There was very little in the way of setting up roadblocks so I'd imagine an abductor using a vehicle is long gone in either scenario.

There is one sentence in the file that is so significant in my opinion that it really makes me wonder what was going on, in fact if Kate had returned and said "All is quiet" would Gerry have jumped up and did another check immediately after Kate's as he did after Matt's 9:00 PM one?

Gerry's 10th May statement:  "About 10 minutes later, he started to worry about her lateness and, at the moment he prepared to stand and to go to see the reason for her lateness, KATE appeared running, completely distraught and crying, saying that MADELEINE had disappeared and that she was sure because she had looked throughout the house."

No one else seems to think Kate took 10 minutes to do her check.  Gerry seems too anxious to get the result of Kate's check, every minute seems to be like 2 to 3 to everyone else.  He was going to go and double check even though his check took around 15 - 20 minutes Kate's check wasn't even 5 minutes, according to the others, but he is already panicking.
How do we explain that?

[pathfinder73]

The sighting was at that time. The longer Gerry is sat at the table waiting for Kate then it can't be him can it?

[Robittybob1]

The sighting was at that time. The longer Gerry is sat at the table waiting for Kate then it can't be him can it?

But he is anxious to get up from the table to go and check what Kate's doing.  Why should he be concerned? Wouldn't he want to remain seated?

[Robittybob1]

As Spammy said, problem with alibi. The Mcanns would have none, except each other, which wouldn't count for much.
The trail would have been much colder, an abductor having been long gone across borders, if such was the case.
People on here have gone on about 'the golden hour'. Well, in that scenario  that hour could have been up to 10 hours previously, so PJ would be at considerable disadvantage.
There wouldn't have been any searching in the dark, of course, so perhaps a better coordinated approach to that.

IMO it is the times that  the Tapas 7 and Gerry are out searching on their own that is the worst times for not having an alibi.  If they are in the Tapas bar having shots they have a good alibi.

[pathfinder73]

But he is anxious to get up from the table to go and check what Kate's doing.  Why should he be concerned? Wouldn't he want to remain seated?

Not that anxious. He thought about going 10 minutes later lol. 10 minutes is a long time in a missing person case.

[Robittybob1]

Not that anxious. He thought about going 10 minutes later lol. 10 minutes is a long time in a missing person case.

You misunderstood me.  How long did Kate's check take?  Most of the others give a duration of less than 5 minutes, which when you put that against what Kate says she did seems reasonable, it certainly wasn't 10 minutes but Gerry perceived as being 10 minutes.  That is why I called his state anxious.  There could be a better word, but there has to be a reason for the incorrect perception of time. An earthquake that rattles for 30 seconds could be described as going on for a minute.  Something dramatic is going on IMO. 
In your theory was he in the Tapas for the full time Kate was doing her check?

[jassi]

Usually I understand your logic immediately Jassi but you lost me here.

Like someone said on the forum yesterday there are two options
1. the McCanns did it or
2.  Someone else did it.

"As Spammy said, problem with alibi. The Mcanns would have none, except each other, which wouldn't count for much."  That must be from the POV that the McCanns did it.
Yet:
"The trail would have been much colder, an abductor having been long gone across borders, if such was the case." POV the McCanns didn't do it.

Are you arguing both cases at the same time?

There was very little in the way of setting up roadblocks so I'd imagine an abductor using a vehicle is long gone in either scenario.

There is one sentence in the file that is so significant in my opinion that it really makes me wonder what was going on, in fact if Kate had returned and said "All is quiet" would Gerry have jumped up and did another check immediately after Kate's as he did after Matt's 9:00 PM one?

Gerry's 10th May statement:  "About 10 minutes later, he started to worry about her lateness and, at the moment he prepared to stand and to go to see the reason for her lateness, KATE appeared running, completely distraught and crying, saying that MADELEINE had disappeared and that she was sure because she had looked throughout the house."

No one else seems to think Kate took 10 minutes to do her check.  Gerry seems too anxious to get the result of Kate's check, every minute seems to be like 2 to 3 to everyone else.  He was going to go and double check even though his check took around 15 - 20 minutes Kate's check wasn't even 5 minutes, according to the others, but he is already panicking.
How do we explain that?

Of course, as we don't know what happened.

Not discovering her missing until the morning destroys any parental alibi, whether or not they were guilty.

A longer period before discovery gives more time for the trail to be obscured, regardless of who is guilty.

[Robittybob1]

Of course, as we don't know what happened.

Not discovering her missing until the morning destroys any parental alibi, whether or not they were guilty.

A longer period before discovery gives more time for the trail to be obscured, regardless of who is guilty.

So the McCanns would suspects from day 1 and   the forensic examination would have been applied from that day and the results would have been fresher.  Toxicology would have been run on the twins.  I think as far as determining what happened it might have been easier if Madeleine was discovered missing in the morning.

[jassi]

So the McCanns would suspects from day 1 and   the forensic examination would have been applied from that day and the results would have been fresher.  Toxicology would have been run on the twins.  I think as far as determining what happened it might have been easier if Madeleine was discovered missing in the morning.

I agree with your first sentence.
I'm not sure that the rest would be true though getting the cadaver dogs in at the beginning might have helped.

One thing this case has demonstrated is that forensic science does not always provide the answers.

[Robittybob1]

I agree with your first sentence.
I'm not sure that the rest would be true though getting the cadaver dogs in at the beginning might have helped.

One thing this case has demonstrated is that forensic science does not always provide the answers.

Lock the apartment down. Bring in the cadaver dogs, may even find a cadaver. It would have been a different story alright.  Especially in my theory, I don't think it would be allowed to happen, but that's only in my theory.   

[Robittybob1]

P.J.FINAL REPORT
"It should be emphasized that the entire apartment had been searched and rummaged by an undetermined number of people, with the contamination that it brings and the difficulty that it raises for the collection of residues."  This may not have happen had Madeleine been discovered missing in the morning.

[Robittybob1]

3856 to 3859 Witness statement of Joao Francisco Pascoa Luis Trigo Barreiras 2007.11.20:

"When they arrived at the scene, which they immediately identified due to the presence of GNR officers, as well as quite a lot of people who were walking around the street searching for the child, they immediately went to the apartment in question, where they found several people, including some GNR officers, as well as the head of the Lagos GNR station.

He states that the people inside the apartment and close to it, entered and left the building and circulated in the whole apartment, completely freely, in other words, without there being any restriction or care in preserving the scene.

He said that these people were the friends of the parents of the missing girl and a lady responsible for the resort called Silvia."

Silvia is getting part of the blame here for not preserving the possible crime scene.  Would this have happened in the morning?

[pathfinder73]

You misunderstood me.  How long did Kate's check take?  Most of the others give a duration of less than 5 minutes, which when you put that against what Kate says she did seems reasonable, it certainly wasn't 10 minutes but Gerry perceived as being 10 minutes.  That is why I called his state anxious.  There could be a better word, but there has to be a reason for the incorrect perception of time. An earthquake that rattles for 30 seconds could be described as going on for a minute.  Something dramatic is going on IMO. 
In your theory was he in the Tapas for the full time Kate was doing her check?

Gerry was at the table when Kate went to do her check (they all were apart from Jane). The sighting was when they were doing their first searches after splitting up. Kate's check wasn't long (not longer than 5 minutes) because she raised the alarm just after Russell received his thin steak.