what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

Are you sure? If there were 14 million different combinations, then if you covered all 14 million combinations you would win.  That is why they  do not like some people buying thousands of tickets to improve their chances of winning.

I'm absolutely sure

[Mr Gray]

True, but you double your chances of winning.

No you don't... Shall we see who understands statistics

[Robittybob1]

I'm absolutely sure

absolutely sure of what? 

No you don't... Shall we see who understands statistics

Explain it to us then.

[ShiningInLuz]

No you don't... Shall we see who understands statistics

You have now proved twice that it's not you.

[Mr Gray]

I am equally absolutely certain that your 14,000,000 figure is mathematically impossible in a lottery containing 59 balls.

If you purchased 14,000,000 tickets, there is still more chanced you will lose.

isnt it 49 balls...so its 49 factorial

[Robittybob1]

isnt it 49 balls...so its 49 factorial

And what is that number?

[Mr Gray]

And what is that number?

work it out

[Brietta]

There's a thought ... we could start a lottery and statistic topic and get  syndicate going ... maybe then we would have a chance of keeping at least one thread On Topic.

[Mr Gray]

Perhaps the mistake you are making, is that you are forgetting they added another TEN balls to the lottery some years ago, making the odds of winning 45,057,474/1.

sorry monkey...I do apologise...you are absolutely correct....I havent bought aticket in years

[The General]

There's a thought ... we could start a lottery and statistic topic and get  syndicate going ... maybe then we would have a chance of keeping at least one thread On Topic.

....and by making this post, ironically, you are not on topic either.
And neither am I.

That Mark Sokonokonkoknko, those podcasts eh, what about that?

[Robittybob1]

It's about calculating odds on stranger abduction abroad and comparing those odds with the UK lottery. All perfectly on topic IMO.

The trouble is that no one has convinced me that they know how to do it.

[Robittybob1]

Ben Needham goes missing/stranger abduction abroad, 1989, Madeleine McCann next goes missing/stranger abduction abroad mid May 2007 = almost 19 years. Lets say conservatively speaking that 3,000,000 children go abroad each year.

Gives us the sum total odds of 3,000,000 x 19 years = 57,000,000/1 that Madeleine was abducted abroad using those statistics, bearing in mind I have been much more conservative about the 3,000,000 children who go abroad each year than professor McCann's own statistics have.

What inaccuracies do you see in that calculation?

Well I think at least you are making more sense than the others.  For one thing I can understand if there are a certain number of numbered balls to chose from there is a statistical chance  of being selected.

I'm struggling to think there is the same sort of system operating abducting British kids travelling abroad.  Is there going to be a constant rate?

[The General]

Look did you think of looking up how to calculate the odds?  Everyone here has been taking guesses and getting nowhere.  Brietta has told you all it is off topic.  OK I let it go as we were trying to calculate the odds of an abduction.
I've had enough of Davel thinking he is always right.  How can he be right when he didn't know how many balls in the draw.

I know mate, but just sit back for a few seconds and consider how important this really is.
It's not important.

[The General]

Well I think at least you are making more sense than the others.  For one thing I can understand if there are a certain number of numbered balls to chose from there is a statistical chance  of being selected.

I'm struggling to think there is the same sort of system operating abducting British kids travelling abroad.  Is there going to be a constant rate?

By the way, the odds are incalculable as there are many, unquantifiable factors.

[Mr Gray]

you said 49 factorial but didn't calculate that as a number.

thats how mathematicians talk...is that your definition of being difficult...49 factorial is a number ...we refer to pi as 22/7...that isnt exact of course...we dont calculate it