what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

well ive given my odds on the whole case...the 3 scenarios......Im the only poster to have done taht ...perhaps others could give their intepretations

[Robittybob1]

thats how mathematicians talk...is that your definition of being difficult

Well was it more than the 49 million figure already being discussed?
Looking it up it is truly an enormous number "factorial of 49 = 608281864034 267560872252 163321295376 887552831379 210240000000 000." 

well ive given my odds on the whole case...the 3 scenarios......Im the only poster to have done taht ...perhaps you and others could give your intepretations

Now you are changing the topic.

[Mr Gray]

Well was it more than the 49 million figure already being discussed?
Looking it up it is truly an enormous number "factorial of 49 = 608281864034 267560872252 163321295376 887552831379 210240000000 000." 
Now you are changing the topic.

isnt the topic re maddies disappearance

[Robittybob1]

isnt the topic re maddies disappearance

See what 49 factorial is.   

[Robittybob1]

isnt the topic re maddies disappearance

The Board is about Maddie's disappearance but each thread has a unique topic which we will tend to follow.

[ShiningInLuz]

well ive given my odds on the whole case...the 3 scenarios......Im the only poster to have done taht ...perhaps others could give their intepretations

I remember doing that, at your request, before I became a moderator.

Today is not your finest day.

[Mr Gray]

I remember doing that, at your request, before I became a moderator.

Today is not your finest day.

I remember it to... You didn't realise the three scenarios had to add up to 100%.

[ShiningInLuz]

I remember it to... You didn't realise the three scenarios had to add up to 100%.

No they don't.  That is how science works.  Please feel free to get it wrong again.

 

[Mr Gray]

No they don't.  That is how science works.  Please feel free to get it wrong again.

 

Thanks for the post confirming you don't understand... This is statistics and when working out the probability of an event the sum off all possible events have to add up to 100%..
That is a fact... I'm astonished you don't understand it

[ShiningInLuz]

Thanks for the post confirming you don't understand... This is statistics and when working out the probability of an event the sum off all possible events have to add up to 100%..
That is a fact... I'm astonished you don't understand it

Thank you for the trifle.

 

[Mr Gray]

The 19 year rate is definitely a variable figure, not a constant one, but the difference between one UK child being abducted abroad by a stranger (Ben Needham) and the next one (Madeleine McCann), gives us as far as I am aware, the figure of 19 years x the number of children who have been abroad by a stranger during that time. To one.

I stand to be corrected if anyone feels those statistics are wrong? Was another British child abducted during that time that I am not aware of for instance? If not, then the odds of 57,000,000/1 that Madeleine McCann was abducted seem pretty damn accurate to me, excluding all the other factors.

I would agree with you that the odds of a child being abducted are tiny....but the odds that Maddie WAS abducted are high

[Mr Gray]

But Madeleine was a child which means you agree the odds that she was abducted are "tiny". Tiny is just one way of putting it.

no the odds that she would be abducted are tiny...the odds taht she was abducted are high.

my dirt poor neighbours buy a lottery ticket ...the odds of them winning are 45 million to one..tiny

next week they have several luxuray cars outside ...are thinking of buying a mansion...its highly likely they won the lottery

[Mr Gray]

What are the odds you talk about? And how did you calculate them mathematically?

odds are not always calculated mathematically...they can be calculated based on evidence and opinion

[Mr Gray]

Is that supposed to be an answer to my question? What are the odds you talk about and what formula did you employ using evidence and opinion to reach your conclusion. That way we can test those odds out, can't we?

I have expalined it...briefly..parents not suspects or being investigated so parental involvement ...very low prob
woke and wandered highly unlikely according to the archiving report...low probability

that leves abduction only...therefore high probability

[Mr Gray]

You're forgetting rather conveniently IMO, the parents are former suspects who have never been cleared of involvement in their daughter's disappearance and their child is still missing. Those KNOWN facts can hardly be factored in to lessen the odds that Madeleine McCann was abducted.

Nothing there that decreases the odds, if there is, let's see it's workings?

all the evidence used to make the parents suspects was declared not confirmed...almeida tells us the main evidence wa sthe dogs...which arent evidence. I dont see the parents being involved at all..