what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

I would tend to use probabilities. Associated with :-

Item
Dog Alerts
Wiped Cell Phone records
Inconsistent Statements
Deep Sleeping Twins
Refusing to Answer Questions
Refusing to do reconstruction
Leaving PDL quickly after saying would never leave
Excessive use of Litigation
Body Language
Unrestricted Fund
Smith Sighting
Crying in the Night
Leaving Twins for extended periods (plus to raise alarm)

Then you have.. No real evidence against them

[ShiningInLuz]

I did a psychology course back in the 80's which covered child development and have experience of my own now teenage and adult children which doesn't really make my opinions any more valid than anyone else's. 

But I do think it would be helpful to have expert opinion from a qualified child psychologist.  I'm about to do some ironing whilst I listen to a McCann docu I uploaded the other day - the dispatches C4 one - I recall a David Canter who from memory was some sort of criminal profiler/psychologist but I think what is required is an all out child psychologist maybe talking to those who knew MM not just her parents but the wider family, T7 etc to build up a picture of what she may well have done if she did wake up.  Bearing in mind this was a different situation for her; normally if she woke at home and wanted her parents they were there.  Here she was in a new environment where her parents were unavailable.  According to Mrs Fenn and MM herself she did wake and her needs went unmet eg 'Where were you when Shaun and I were crying'.  She has already learned if she needs her parents they are unavailable in this place so what does she do? 

If this has not been done it begs the question why not?

 

Please bear in mind that C4 documentary was done before the PJ Files were released, so a vast raft of information was unavailable to them then.

That aside, I remember it as a reasonable stab at getting the case across, based on contemporary information.

[slartibartfast]

Then you have.. No real evidence against them

You have to consider that there has to be an innocent explanation for each anomaly to clear the McCanns.

[jassi]

You have to consider that there has to be an innocent explanation for each anomaly to clear the McCanns.

Pretty sure that's what Clarence told us anyway. 

[Mr Gray]

You have to consider that there has to be an innocent explanation for each anomaly to clear the McCanns.

I'm sure there is... I think everything there has been discussed at length

[Holly Goodhead]

If you comb the files and photos, you will find ...

Both Kate and Gerry's statements say MBM was 90cm.  There was an inflatable put up on Luz beach describing her as 90cm.

I have an issue with that.  Based on UK figures for girls turning 4, she should have been around 1.02m, even if she was petite.

Based on the same source, she should have weighed 12kg to 16kg, again even is she was petite.

The latter suggest the Tanner sighting was not MBM.  Carrying 12 to 16kg in a crane posture is a back-breaker.

I have not yet breached Fortress Rothley to ascertain why 90cm was used.  Guests, please note there is more than one innocent explanation for this.

Arm reach/span does not always directly correlate with height but usually a good indicator.  Yes 90 cm seems on the low side.  GM seems about average height for a guy and KM taller than average female so you would expect MM to be at least average.  I haven't seen any shorties in the wider family.  In any event even at 90cm I don't see a problem with a child that height reaching up to door handles of average height?

I thought the Tanner sighting had been pretty much ruled out?  Father and daughter identified by SY?  Having now learned a bit more about the case I'm thinking the Tanner and Smith sightings were simply fathers carrying their children from MW creche facilities.   

[Holly Goodhead]

I would tend to use probabilities. Associated with :-

Item
Dog Alerts
Wiped Cell Phone records
Inconsistent Statements
Deep Sleeping Twins
Refusing to Answer Questions
Refusing to do reconstruction
Leaving PDL quickly after saying would never leave
Excessive use of Litigation
Body Language
Unrestricted Fund
Smith Sighting
Crying in the Night
Leaving Twins for extended periods (plus to raise alarm)

What does your 'Item' refer to or is this your list?

Can you expand on the wiped phone records? 

Good point about the twins being left even momentarily having found MM gone.  Maybe genuine traumatic reaction coupled with what she believes happened ie out the window and gone. 

[jassi]

Arm reach/span does not always directly correlate with height but usually a good indicator.  Yes 90 cm seems on the low side.  GM seems about average height for a guy and KM taller than average female so you would expect MM to be at least average.  I haven't seen any shorties in the wider family.  In any event even at 90cm I don't see a problem with a child that height reaching up to door handles of average height?

I thought the Tanner sighting had been pretty much ruled out?  Father and daughter identified by SY?  Having now learned a bit more about the case I'm thinking the Tanner and Smith sightings were simply fathers carrying their children from MW creche facilities.

Maybe, but Smithman remains unaccounted for, even after intensive investigation

[ShiningInLuz]

Arm reach/span does not always directly correlate with height but usually a good indicator.  Yes 90 cm seems on the low side.  GM seems about average height for a guy and KM taller than average female so you would expect MM to be at least average.  I haven't seen any shorties in the wider family.  In any event even at 90cm I don't see a problem with a child that height reaching up to door handles of average height?

I thought the Tanner sighting had been pretty much ruled out?  Father and daughter identified by SY?  Having now learned a bit more about the case I'm thinking the Tanner and Smith sightings were simply fathers carrying their children from MW creche facilities.

Tannerman was heading the wrong way re the OC creche.

Smithman was well outside the OC, so unlikely to be involved with the creche.

[Mr Gray]

Was Colin Stagg's child missing believed snatched from her bed? There again, if we could know how many career criminals give no comment interviews and compare those with interviews of mother's of snatched from their bed children, we'd be able to factor those odds in. I doubt if we could quantify that number, the odds would go anyway other than up the way.


By the way, woke, wandered out and then was abducted by a stranger, is in the SAME odds as for 'abducted by a stranger' but I'm sure you already knew that. 

What do we have to compare with..
How many other mother's whose child has disappeared in a foreign country who thinks the police are trying tofind evidence to arrrest her and has been advised by her lawyer not to answer questions.   A police enquiry led by a detective who is, an arguido in another child disappearance...

Can we arrive at a number for that to compare with

[Mr Gray]

The number of mothers of abducted children who refuse to answer police questions after being made a police suspect should suffice? I'm not holding out for that one.

We can't count Gerry in because unlike his wife, he ignored his lawyer's advice.

Doesn't really matter.. Your figures aren't of any significance

IMO Kate was right... Gerry was wrong

[Mr Gray]

You may well be right, who am I to argue. We will just have to wait and see.

There's no danger of me sitting on any fence with odds like that. Btw, it was a three year old child we're talking about, don't be under the illusion I would like to see those odds be correct. But the odds are the odds, nothing I can do about them. They stick out like a sore thumb IMHO.

Good luck!

And they are completely wrong.. Imo

[Mr Gray]

I hope so, for the child's sake but it's only fools who ignore the odds. We'll see when SY conclude their investigation if there's proof for stranger abduction? That's our only guide for the veracity of the odds.

No arrests, no charges and no convictions doesn't = stranger abduction in the odds!

I'd put abduction odds on...

[Mr Gray]

Then Operation Grange is our guide. You can't claim to consider the odds in one hand AND completely ignore the NO arrests, NO charges and NO convictions in the other.

Time will tell and I hope you win.

I've explained many times... I'm confident

[Mr Gray]

Of what exactly?

Of the fact that abduction is the most probable scenario