what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Vertigo Swirl]

If you don't understand basic science or basic statistics, is it Rob's job to explain these to you?

Thanks!

 

You felt it was your job to explain to the moderators and I have asked him politely to pass the benefit of your wisdom on to the rest of us.  What’s the problem?

[Holly Goodhead]

IMO, woke and wandered and then abducted must feature extremely high.

I agree.  I purchased Kate's book yesterday and find myself increasingly annoyed when she keeps referring to abductor and abduction and refuses to accept the possibility MM woke and wandered. 

[Mr Gray]

What he actually explained was that you got it wrong, not just once but twice.

You must be blind


I tend to agree with Davel on this one: "This is statistics and when working out the probability of an event the sum off all possible events have to add up to 100%".

[Vertigo Swirl]

You must be blind


I tend to agree with Davel on this one: "This is statistics and when working out the probability of an event the sum off all possible events have to add up to 100%".

I wonder if anyone else supports SIL’s views that that sum of all possibilities does not have to add up to a 100% .  In fact doesn’t SIL have woke and wandered, abduction and parental involvement adding up to 30%? 

[ShiningInLuz]

You felt it was your job to explain to the moderators and I have asked him politely to pass the benefit of your wisdom on to the rest of us.  What’s the problem?

You have tasked Rob with informing the moderators.  Quite a different option.

Punch the 'report to moderator' button if you have an issue.

[Wonderfulspam]

I agree.  I purchased Kate's book yesterday and find myself increasingly annoyed when she keeps referring to abductor and abduction and refuses to accept the possibility MM woke and wandered.

The door slammed, the curtains went 'swish', the window & shutters were found open.
It has to be an abduction. There's no other possible scenario.

[Mr Gray]

I wonder if anyone else supports SIL’s views that that sum of all possibilities does not have to add up to a 100% .  In fact doesn’t SIL have woke and wandered, abduction and parental involvement adding up to 30%? 

As I remember yes... And he's never been able to explain his, glaring error

[Vertigo Swirl]

You have tasked Rob with informing the moderators.  Quite a different option.

Punch the 'report to moderator' button if you have an issue.

What??!  . Have you got a cataract?

[Vertigo Swirl]

The door slammed, the curtains went 'swish', the window & shutters were found open.
It has to be an abduction. There's no other possible scenario.

At last, the penny has dropped.

[ShiningInLuz]

I wonder if anyone else supports SIL’s views that that sum of all possibilities does not have to add up to a 100% .  In fact doesn’t SIL have woke and wandered, abduction and parental involvement adding up to 30%? 

I believe in the absence of evidence, I actually made it around 40%,

After Corrie McKeague, it might be up to 45%

That's how life and death goes.

[ShiningInLuz]

What??!  . Have you got a cataract?

You might like to cut the insults and try thinking more.

[slartibartfast]

As Davel is grouping all possible scenarios the total probability will be 100%.

SiL appears to be building up scenarios which will be less than 100% though when added together with unknown scenarios will be 100%.

I don’t think there is an issue just 2 views on the same thing.

[Vertigo Swirl]

You might like to cut the insults and try thinking more.

Perhaps you would like to follow your own advice and tell me where you believe I asked Rob to inform the moderators of anything ?

[Vertigo Swirl]

As Davel is grouping all possible scenarios the total probability will be 100%.

SiL appears to be building up scenarios which will be less than 100% though when added together with unknown scenarios will be 100%.

I don’t think there is an issue just 2 views on the same thing.

There are no other scenarios.  Madeleine was either abducted, woke and wandered or her parents were directly involved in making her disappear.  There are no other scenarios. 

[faithlilly]

15 pages about statistics?   


So about the dogs...

Who’d have thought we would ever see those as a welcome interlude.