what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Robittybob1]

Can we move on please?

[Robittybob1]

Moving on despite the deletions.

[jassi]

Here's another known fact we can factor into the odds because it did occur.

4/1 that the one night of the five that they'd almost think about cancelling their reservation at the tapas would be the ONE night Madeleine that was abducted.

4x 285,000,000 = 1,140,000,000/1 + 285,000,000/1 = 1,425,000,000/1.

The odds do not favour stranger abduction, BUT there's always the ONE.

And that is  why I think  it is all a fiction

[Vertigo Swirl]

Here's another known fact we can factor into the odds because it did occur.

4/1 that the one night of the five that they'd almost think about cancelling their reservation at the tapas would be the ONE night Madeleine that was abducted.

4x 285,000,000 = 1,140,000,000/1 + 285,000,000/1 = 1,425,000,000/1.

The odds do not favour stranger abduction, BUT there's always the ONE.

What are the odds that the one night they almost cancelled their reservation coincided with the one night Madeleine had an accident and died and her body had to be disposed of?

[The General]

What are the odds that the one night they almost cancelled their reservation coincided with the one night Madeleine had an accident and died and her body had to be disposed of?

5/1

[Vertigo Swirl]

5/1

OK and what about the rest of Monkey’s odds calculation?  We’re up to 1.425 billion against abduction.  Do you concur? 

[The General]

OK and what about the rest of Monkey’s odds calculation?  We’re up to 1.425 billion against abduction.  Do you concur?

Hang on, let me just check with Paddy Power*



*other bookmakers are available.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Hang on, let me just check with Paddy Power*



*other bookmakers are available.

Let me know if they give those odds - I quite fancy being a billionaire.

[Robittybob1]

Here's another known fact we can factor into the odds because it did occur.

4/1 that the one night of the five that they'd almost think about cancelling their reservation at the tapas would be the ONE night Madeleine that was abducted.

4x 285,000,000 = 1,140,000,000/1 + 285,000,000/1 = 1,425,000,000/1.

The odds do not favour stranger abduction, BUT there's always the ONE.

Now this has to stop for you have got that completely wrong.  You are leading us down the garden path.
As has been pointed out the fact that there had been a discussion about not going to the Tapas on Thursday and that on Friday there was a special dinner for the tennis group, this would increase the chances of the abduction occurring sooner than later. 
Yet you have taken it and made it even less likely.

[Robittybob1]

And that is  why I think  it is all a fiction

Cheeky Monkey is leading members astray with his calculations IMO.  see my previous post for my reasoning.

[The General]

Cheeky Monkey is leading members astray with his calculations IMO.  see my previous post for my reasoning.

I think there's a tongue firmly planted in cheek with Monkey's whole calculation of odds, Rob.

[Robittybob1]

5/1

An accident with the odds of 5:1. You're maths needs an urgent reset!

I think there's a tongue firmly planted in cheek with Monkey's whole calculation of odds, Rob.

  I don't think so not when you try and change his mind.  He's like a tank driving through the enemy.

[Robittybob1]

Let me know if they give those odds - I quite fancy being a billionaire.

You'll never get a payout though.

[Vertigo Swirl]

I think there's a tongue firmly planted in cheek with Monkey's whole calculation of odds, Rob.

Let’s hope, but I wouldn’t bet on it!

[The General]

An accident with the odds of 5:1. You're maths needs an urgent reset!
  I don't think so not when you try and change his mind.  He's like a tank driving through the enemy.

5/1 referred to the available days I believe....
And it's poor battle drill to drive 'through' the enemy with a tank. Keep moving on open terrain.  Slow or stop, quickly aim and fire, then continue to take up a better position against the enemy while reloading. If you drive straight towards, you'll be easy prey for enemy tanks and artillery.