what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Robittybob1]

5/1 referred to the available days I believe....
And it's poor battle drill to drive 'through' the enemy with a tank. Keep moving on open terrain.  Slow or stop, quickly aim and fire, then continue to take up a better position against the enemy while reloading. If you drive straight towards, you'll be easy prey for enemy tanks and artillery.

That's why we are going to blow him out of the water.

[Robittybob1]

Cite please as per forum rules? Thank you!

From http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=4.msg16880#msg16880
Forum Rules


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I have judged your calculations as being false and inaccurate.  So from the reading of the rules they are both No nos.

As a moderator I don't think it is my role to prove the calculations are false and inaccurate I just need to judge it as such.

"Note that it is impossible for the staff or the owners of this forum to confirm the validity of posts."

[Robittybob1]

They only went to the tapas five nights and chose the ONE night the child was abducted to allege they ALMOST thought about not going. That's a known fact that you cannot alter. Giving you odds that they would pick the ONE night Madeleine was abducted of 4/1. FACT!

They allege they picked the ONE night Madeleine was abducted and ignored the other four, that's a fact. Stop falsely accusing people of misleading people when it is clear you don't know what you're talking about.

I'll give you a choice either rewrite the above post with names inserted where you use the pronouns "they".

Explain who chose?  As in: "and chose the ONE night the child was abducted". 

Or it will be reported.

[Robittybob1]

They only went to the tapas five nights and chose the ONE night the child was abducted to allege they ALMOST thought about not going. That's a known fact that you cannot alter. Giving you odds that they would pick the ONE night Madeleine was abducted of 4/1. FACT!

They allege they picked the ONE night Madeleine was abducted and ignored the other four, that's a fact. Stop falsely accusing people of misleading people when it is clear you don't know what you're talking about.

Shall I have a go?
The Tapas 9 only went to the tapas five nights and chose the ONE night the child was abducted to allege the Tapas 9 ALMOST thought about not going. That's a known fact that you cannot alter. Giving you odds that they would pick the ONE night Madeleine was abducted of 4/1. FACT!

The McCanns allege they picked the ONE night Madeleine was abducted and ignored the other four, that's a fact. Stop falsely accusing people of misleading people when it is clear you don't know what you're talking about."


How can it be 4/1 ?  Four nights had already past and she wasn't abducted on those nights, that is making the past have an influence on the present or the future.  Each throw on the roulette wheel was independent of the past throws, we had already agreed on that.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Monkey, do you believe in the odds you have calculated or are hey to gue-in-cheek as has been suggested?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Unless you can show me statistical problems in the calculations (which are there) then there's no need to put my tongue in my cheek.  Those are the odds. Only a fool would ignore them.

Five apartments and what do you know, the cadaver dog picks the ONE apartment of the McCanns. The odds aren't lying on this occasion but the old bill still have a chance to factor your ONE in.

Good luck!

Yeah, I thought you weren’t being tongue-in-cheek, thanks for the clarification. 

[Vertigo Swirl]

What you have to remember about the odds, if there's no abductor there is no ONE to factor in. You have real problems with that, nothing tongue in cheek about


I'm getting pissed of with the warnings now and losing my will to live on here. You'll find the odds are very seldom wrong. Take my advice and bear them in mind.

Cathcha next week.

Thanks for calculating the odds.  I think the Met should be told though don’t you?  They seem to be under the impression that abduction is a real possibility.  Your odds show that it is all but completely impossible and therefore should be ruled out once and for all.  I think this forum should be commended for this highly significant discovery.  What say the rest of you?

[Mr Gray]

I'll give you a choice either rewrite the above post with names inserted where you use the pronouns "they".

Explain who chose?  As in: "and chose the ONE night the child was abducted". 

Or it will be reported.

Simply report it Rob.... I think John will tell you to stop nitpicking and let the discussion flow

[Vertigo Swirl]

The police are the only ones daft enough to tell us they could maybe factor the one in.

Let's see if they do it.

I'm defo off this time but it's only fools who ignore the odds. That's the second thing I've warned you about but you don't seem to be one for listening.

Good luck!

I think my post shows that I am listening and that I believe you have made an important advancement in understanding of the case.  Hats off to you.  Currently the odds that Madeleine was abducted stand at 4.25billion to one, but are likely to get even bigger the longer you think about it.  Marvellous work.   

[Vertigo Swirl]

You still don't get it I see. It's not the 4.25 billion that count in the odds, it's ONLY the ONE that you beleive SY will factor in that counts. That's where you'll need luck. For the third and final time:

I wish you all the luck in the world, you and SY are going to need it!

And like a rubber ball, monkey keeps on bouncing back to me!

[The General]

I think my post shows that I am listening and that I believe you have made an important advancement in understanding of the case.  Hats off to you.  Currently the odds that Madeleine was abducted stand at 4.25billion to one, but are likely to get even bigger the longer you think about it.  Marvellous work.   

Well done you for being so magnanimous. It's a rare commodity around here.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Well done you for being so magnanimous. It's a rare commodity around here.

Thanks, I agree and I'm sure you'll take the opportunity to thank Monkey for his valuable contribution to the forum and to the case generally with his odd calculation.

[Robittybob1]

It's doesn't matter if they had already past, that's the point about odds they DID happen without any mention of almost cancelling. Therefore making it impossible the factor them out.

Sometimes if you don't know what you're talking about, you're better saying nothing at all IMO.

You should take your own advice then.

[Robittybob1]

Unless you can show me statistical problems in the calculations (which are there) then there's no need to put my tongue in my cheek.  Those are the odds. Only a fool would ignore them.

Five apartments and what do you know, the cadaver dog picks the ONE apartment of the McCanns. The odds aren't lying on this occasion but the old bill still have a chance to factor your ONE in.

Good luck!

I have been showing you the problems with  the calculations all along but you just ignore them.  You are ignoring my comments.

[Robittybob1]

could you clarify... i havent seen  aclear answer...the odds of abduction must be quite high

The definition for odds pertaining to this discussion:
"the chances or likelihood of something happening or being the case.
plural noun: the odds
"the odds are that he is no longer alive"
synonyms:   likelihood, probability, chances, chance, balance
"the odds are that he is no longer alive"

So which is the higher odds 10/1 or 100/1   is the larger number the likelihood of it happening?  And the smaller number the likelihood of it not happening?

Davel when you say "the odds of abduction must be quite high"  what sort of odds were you expecting?

1/1 ?