what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Robittybob1]

basic error...odds are applied maths

What about a compromise?  "Odds are pure applied maths. It's an odds thread we are on".

[Mr Gray]

Not the ones using the odds of what DID happen, your on about the what CAN happen ones.

Big difference!

look at the defn of pure and applied maths

[Eleanor]

pfft....semantics.
I didn't mean in the literal, academic sense, Prof.

What did you mean then?

[Mr Gray]

What about a compromise?  "Odds are pure applied maths. It's an odds thread we are on".

odds are not pure maths

[Mr Gray]

Odds of what DID happen use EXACT figures, not estimates.

preisely...

[Robittybob1]

Not the ones using the odds of what DID happen, your on about the what CAN happen ones.

Big difference!

That is what I was wanting to know.  If something happened, or did happen, is there any point of analysing the odds?

You already know what happened.

[Mr Gray]

Odds of what DID happen use EXACT figures, not estimates.

so you are working out the odds of abduction...but you dont know it happened

[Mr Gray]

preisely...

its  a 100% certain  maddie has disappeared...why has that post been removed by rob

[Robittybob1]

its  a100% ceratian maddie has disappeared...why has taht post been removed

It wasn't removed it was edited,  The whole forum is about the disappearance of Madeleine McCann, so it is pointless to point this out again.

[Mr Gray]

It wasn't removed it was edited,  The whole forum is about the disappearance of Madeleine McCann, so it is pointless to point this out again.

its about odds ...it was totally relevant...and your edit changed the meaning of the post

[Robittybob1]

We know every one of these things DID happened

5 apartments one choice = 4/1
5 nights, one choice = 4/1
4 doors one unlocked = 3/1
3 children, one not in a cot = 2/1

You can tell me that at the end of the investigation but you have to be capable of understanding the odds to be fair.

Did you understand what I was asking?  "If something happened, or did happen, is there any point of analysing the odds?"

[Mr Gray]

Did you understand what I was asking?  "If something happened, or did happen, is there any point of analysing the odds?"

thats the point i was making...Its 100% certin maddie has disappeared

[The General]

What did you mean then?

Well you're aware of the terms 'pure' and 'applied' maths?
Well I wasn't using either of them. I was referring to the maths being 'pure' as an adjective. No allusion to a branch of maths was intended.
Delete, delete, delete.

[Robittybob1]

We know every one of these things DID happened

5 apartments one choice = 4/1
5 nights, one choice = 4/1
4 doors one unlocked = 3/1
3 children, one not in a cot = 2/1

You can tell me that at the end of the investigation but you have to be capable of understanding the odds to be fair.

As I have pointed out there were only 4 apartments involved.
they were staying there 7 nights.
3 of the apartments had 2 doors and one just the single door, with access to a road. (7 door in total)
Does it matter if they were in a cot or not?

[Mr Gray]

Is there any point in analysing the things that DID happen? 

I would say you cannot simply quote odds on abduction...you must include the odds on the other 2..


so woke and wandered and dissapeared...in the alst 20 yeras ...zero...so odds 20 million to on eagainst

accident in apartmnet covered up by parents in las 2o yeras ..zero..so odds 20 million to on eagainst

so the thre possibilities combined add up to 3 in 20 million...so the odds ahve to be wrong