what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Madeleine being abducted by a stranger is the massive statistical improbability on this thread. There's no proof for that ONE. You still don't get it I see.

I doubt you, like some others are ever going to get the hang of the odds, but just as long as you keep coming back and proving it, I'll keep on plugging away.

What bit don’t I get?  I think it’s you who doesn’t get it.  Madeleine has disappeared.  There are only three possible explanations.  This makes abduction statistically far more probable than the odds you would calculate for any random child on h9liday abroad, unless you can show the odds for the other two explanations and how you arrived at them.  Until you do then it’s clear to me that you’re the one thst still doesn’t get it. 

[Eleanor]

Every time a UK child goes abroad  is there a chance that it gets abducted.  I don't see any special protection being applied to UK children.
So sooner or later a UK child will be abducted. What is stopping it?

This is what Operation Grange is all about, to me.

It is not possible to physically protect every British Child 24/7, but you sure as hell can let these persons know that they will be hunted.

Too much time was lost in early days on this case.  This won't be allowed to happen if this occurs again.  Which Country won't come into it.  Unless they wish to be seen as protectors of child abductors.

[Mr Gray]

What bit don’t I get?  I think it’s you who doesn’t get it.  Madeleine has disappeared.  There are only three possible explanations for each.  This makes abduction statistically far more probable than the odds you would calculate for any random child on h9liday abroad, unless you can show the odds for the other two explanations and how you arrived at them.  Until you do then it’s clear to me that you’re the one thst still doesn’t get it.

Precisely... I don't think monkey is even listening to what anyone else says he's Si convinced he's right

[Vertigo Swirl]

Precisely... I don't think monkey is even listening to what anyone else says he's Si convinced he's right

IMO he is living up to his forum name and making a monkey of himself.

[Eleanor]

No doubt Rob Googled the literal meaning.
Good luck with that.

It's a quite simple concept; MM would have known the patio door was open, so no need to find another exit.
Even for a 3 year old, the 'innate' nature of time-saving and path of least resistance is strong.
Jesus.

It is strong in me, and always has been.  I wish I could say the same for my 52 year old son.

No, he is not stupid, but logistics is not his strong suit, nor that of everyone.

[Mr Gray]

I will listen if you ever decide show me your workings, I've showed you mine. Without them your reason will always be nothing but nonsense. I'm not listening to nonsense if that's what you mean.

Listen to this then and tell me what is wrong..
All three options need to add up to 100%

Could you... Using your methods.. Give me the odds of parental involvement and woke and wandered

[The General]

It is strong in me, and always has been.  I wish I could say the same for my 52 year old son.

No, he is not stupid, but logistics is not his strong suit, nor that of everyone.

The ability to rail against these instincts is a commodity found in high achievers / leaders, as they tend to be tenacious and driven.

[Mr Gray]

I will listen if you ever decide show me your workings, I've showed you mine. Without them your reason will always be nothing but nonsense. I'm not listening to nonsense if that's what you mean.

Your odds are for whether Madeleine would be abducted before her disappearance.... They are not the odds that she was abducted once she had disappeared

[Eleanor]

Precisely... I don't think monkey is even listening to what anyone else says he's Si convinced he's right

Personally, I think Cheeky Monkey is pulling our legs.

[Mr Gray]

That's the bit you're only too willing to demonstrate a complete lack understanding of the odds. The odds only offer TWO possibilities. (ALL the other possibilities/ONE stranger abduction).

You're doing a fine job of proving you'r not the sharpest tool in the box.  This is about the ODDS of Madeleine being abducted remember.  TWO possibilities, not three. She either WAS abducted by a stranger or she WASN'T in  the odds. That's a fact.

Are you talking about Madeline being abducted when she went on holiday.... Or the odds that she was abducted on the night of 3/5

[Eleanor]

The ability to rail against these instincts is a commodity found in high achievers / leaders, as they tend to be tenacious and driven.

Spot on.  My son doesn't care about being a high achiever.  He would much rather be your friend and forgive your sins.

He thinks that I am mad.  However, I do have to say that he wouldn't make a good Moderator.  This Site would fast degenerate into total chaos without my tenacity.

[Vertigo Swirl]

That's the bit you're only too willing to demonstrate a complete lack understanding of the odds. The odds only offer TWO possibilities. (ALL the other possibilities/ONE stranger abduction).

You're doing a fine job of proving you'r not the sharpest tool in the box.  This is about the ODDS of Madeleine being abducted remember.  TWO possibilities, not three. She either WAS abducted by a stranger or she WASN'T in  the odds. That's a fact.

Do you agree with the principle that there are two sets of odds here
1) the odds that Madeleine would be abducted.
2) the odds that Madeleine actually was abducted.
If not kindly explain why you reject this principle.

[Eleanor]

He isn't, he's letting them all pull their own legs. 

I think your Odds are bordering on insane.  Unfortunately, I have to read them.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Personally, I think Cheeky Monkey is pulling our legs.

Apparently he’s deadly serious, which is somewhat worrying!

[Vertigo Swirl]

If it's the known facts I used for my calculation and you're all in on the one stranger abduction, I can seed why you're worried.

I don't blame you.

Do you agree with the principle that there are two sets of odds here
1) the odds that Madeleine would be abducted.
2) the odds that Madeleine actually was abducted.
If not kindly explain why you reject this princip