what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Robittybob1]

Madeleine being abducted by a stranger is highly likely... You just won't listen to reason

Mainly because Cheeky Monkey's calculations are all wrong as I have explained multiple times.

[Mr Gray]

Mainly because the calculations are all wrong as I have explained on multiple times.

Are you accusing my calculations of being wrong... Surely not

[Robittybob1]

Listen to this then and tell me what is wrong..
All three options need to add up to 100%

Could you... Using your methods.. Give me the odds of parental involvement and woke and wandered

Cheeky Monkey has already ruled out woke and wandered so parental involvement must be the bulk of the 100%

[Robittybob1]

Your odds are for whether Madeleine would be abducted before her disappearance.... They are not the odds that she was abducted once she had disappeared

I would not even make that allowance.

[Robittybob1]

It's mathematically impossible to have three possibilities in the odds Dave. That's a fact.

There is no third option EVER. She either was abducted or she wasn't. It's an odds thread. And you haven't yet showed me an example of a child waking wandering and never being found for 12 years making it impossible to calculate odds on. I have told you that too, but you refuse to listen.

Each horse in a race has it own odds.  Odds of winning.  10/1 to me means the bookie will pay out $10 for every dollar I place on the bet if that particular horse won. 
So you can have the odds for abduction and the odds for woke and wandered, or parental involvement.

[Robittybob1]

Do you agree with the principle that there are two sets of odds here
1) the odds that Madeleine would be abducted.
2) the odds that Madeleine actually was abducted.
If not kindly explain why you reject this principle.

I don't believe you can put Madeleine's name in (1). 

[barrier]

What fun you have missed.

Far from it,my life is not lacking because I don't gamble,"a fool and his money" is not on my  resumé.

[Robittybob1]

Because we can't prove they were false we can't put odds on that.

The dog DID search 7 properties and DID only alert to ONE of them. The odds are 6/1 that it would be the McCann's or any of the others. It could have searched seven and alerted to two. The odds in that case would be 5/2.

Of the seven properties, it only chose the family of the ONE missing child. FACT! 6/1!

So what! Unless you can explain why they did alert, it has no factual value.

[Robittybob1]

Are you accusing my calculations of being wrong... Surely not

I've edited that post to now read "Mainly because Cheeky Monkey's calculations are all wrong as I have explained multiple times."

[Mr Gray]

I've edited that post to now read "Mainly because Cheeky Monkey's calculations are all wrong as I have explained multiple times."

Many thanks

[Vertigo Swirl]

There are NEVER two set of different odds ever offered on what would happen in any ONE event and what actually DID happen in that event. It's ONE set of odds on what could happen that ONLY come up if that event DOES actually happen. It's still only ONE set of odds.
 
Get it yet?

No.  You are wrong.  There are two sets of odds here.  If I may be permitted to use an example unrelated to this case to demonstrate.
Your odds of being being run over are 1000 to one every time you cross the road (I made up the figure, it doesn’t really matter what that figure actually is for this example). 
You are discovered unconscious and bleeding heavily from a head wound in the middle of the road.  What are the odds that you were run over?  1000 to one also?   Just answer yes or no please and then we’ll take it from there.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Then your odds of being run over are 1000/1? One set!

Are you suggesting Madeleine was abducted TWO TIMES?

That's the ONLY way you'd have TWO sets of odds for Madeleine being abducted by a stranger abroad.

Oh dear, back to the drawing board for Vertigo Swirl. 

So you cannot answer my question with a simple yes or no.  Why not?

[Eleanor]

Then your odds of being run over are 1000/1? One set!

Are you suggesting Madeleine was abducted TWO TIMES?

That's the ONLY way you'd have TWO sets of odds for Madeleine being abducted by a stranger abroad.

Oh dear, back to the drawing board for Vertigo Swirl. 

Sorry.  everyone thinks that you are making this up as you go along.

[Mr Gray]

Then your odds of being run over are 1000/1? One set!

Are you suggesting Madeleine was abducted TWO TIMES?

That's the ONLY way you'd have TWO sets of odds for Madeleine being abducted by a stranger abroad.

Oh dear, back to the drawing board for Vertigo Swirl. 

It's almost painful reading to your posts... Read VS spost again.. The odds of you being run over.. Future tense... Are different to the odds that you were runover... Past tense..
That's what VS is pointing out to you but you seem blind to the facts in the case

[Brietta]

It's almost painful reading to your posts... Read VS spost again.. The odds of you being run over.. Future tense... Are different to the odds that you were runover... Past tense..
That's what VS is pointing out to you but you seem blind to the facts in the case

                          "None so blind as those who will not see"