what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Vertigo Swirl]

I did, because you don't like it, that's just two bad. If YOU say the odds of getting knocked down in ONE event are 1000/1 then you MUST have factored in the possibility that someone could be discovered unconscious and bleeding heavily from a head wound in the middle of the road BEFOREHAND. Otherwise YOU have got your ONE set of odds WRONG. 

We are talking about the ONE set of odds on Madeleine being abducted by a stranger abroad.

I have factored numerous things to ALTER the odds on a stranger abducting Madeleine abroad BUT they'll always be the ONE set of odds for the ONE event.

Do you think Madeleine was abducted TWICE? Just answer yes or no please and then we’ll take it from there. 

No I don’t think she was abducted twice.  Now you answer my question in a similar straight forward manner please.  That’s your challenge for the day.

[Vertigo Swirl]

That's the bit you just don't get, do you? I'm giving you the odds for what WE KNOW DID HAPPEN. So you'll NEVER get much more accurate odds than that. NEVER. Don't you like accurate odds?

We are told an abductor DID abduct Madeleine.
We know a cadaver dog DID pick ONE apartment of the SEVEN it searched.
We know an abductor DID pick the ONE unlocked apartment of a possible FOUR.
We know an abductor DID pick the ONE child of the THREE NOT confined to a cot.

You will never be able to alter the odds of WHAT WE KNOW DID HAPPEN. That's a fact.
Unless it didn't happen at all. You can alter them then. 

We know an abductor took Madeleine now do we?  OK.

[Vertigo Swirl]

That's the ONE, REMEMBER.

That's what we're all waiting to find out. 

Nope.  Complete nonsense.  Sorry.

[Vertigo Swirl]

1000/1 YOU said for getting knocked down ONCE. I'll let you answer it, you already have. 

just answer my question yes or no, it surely isn’t that difficult is it?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Here it is again
Your odds of being being run over are 1000 to one every time you cross the road (I made up the figure, it doesn’t really matter what that figure actually is for this example). 
You are discovered unconscious and bleeding heavily from a head wound in the middle of the road.  What are the odds that you were run over?  1000 to one also?

[Vertigo Swirl]

You're saying the odds are 1000/1. Are they ONE set of odds for 1000/1 or Not. A simple yes or no please?

Yes - in actual facts the odds of being run over and killed each time a person crosses the road are 300 million to one.  That’s the odds of it happening on any given road crossing. 
so.
You come across a person dead in the road, legs akimbo, blood everywhere.  What are the odds that they were run over?  300 mlllion to one?  What would the police conclude, before making any further investigation?  Would they rule out a hit and run because the odds are 300 million to one of it hapoening to a person on any one road crossing?

https://blogs.dnvgl.com/oilgas/safety/what-is-the-risk-of-crossing-the-road/

[Vertigo Swirl]

Seemples really tch.  . Fair to deduce that the odds regardless of exact number are astronomical. Which is the actual point of evaluation of the Q.

I think the argument is that because the odds are so high it must have been the parents wot dunnit.

[Vertigo Swirl]

It doesn't mean that at all. It just means stranger abduction abroad HAS TO represent the ONE in the odds IF you believe that's the ONE thing that happened. She can only be abducted once, agreed?  Only Scotland Yard can factor that ONE in. Be patient. Madeleine might just be that 1 in every 4.25 billion (my odds with KNOWN FACTS and calculations). 


Or the first since the last UK child to be abducted abroad. Take your pick. 

You never did give me a straightforward answer to my question.   

[Vertigo Swirl]

Every single answer I've given you is a straightforward one to those folk who understand the true concept of the odds. It's an odds thread, so I make no apologies for other's lack of understanding, including your own.

You refused to answer yes or no, a question which can very easily be answered yes or no.  Try it.  I bet you can’t. 

[Robittybob1]

1. Ben Needham goes missing/stranger abduction 1989.
2. Madeleine McCann next goes missing/stranger abduction 2007.
3. Cadaver dog searches SEVEN apartments and only alerts to ONE, the McCann ONE.
4. Of the FOUR families the abductor picks the ONE family who leave ONE door unlocked.
5. The abductor then chooses to abduct the ONE child of the THREE not confined to a cot.


If anyone is making that lot up, it certainly is NOT me.

Who cares what everyone thinks, it's what me and the facts think, that count. 

What does this line mean? "2. Madeleine McCann next goes missing/stranger abduction 2007."

[Robittybob1]

That's the bit you just don't get, do you? I'm giving you the odds for what WE KNOW DID HAPPEN. So you'll NEVER get much more accurate odds than that. NEVER. Don't you like accurate odds?

We are told an abductor DID abduct Madeleine.
We know a cadaver dog DID pick ONE apartment of the SEVEN it searched.
We know an abductor DID pick the ONE unlocked apartment of a possible FOUR.
We know an abductor DID pick the ONE child of the THREE NOT confined to a cot.

You will never be able to alter the odds of WHAT WE KNOW DID HAPPEN. That's a fact.
Unless it didn't happen at all. You can alter them then. 

Do you accept that "an abductor DID abduct Madeleine" as a fact?

For you seem to be using that as a fact in your baseline calculation (time period between Ben and Madeleine)

[Vertigo Swirl]

Do you accept that "an abductor DID abduct Madeleine" as a fact?

It would seem from that post that he does.  Bless him.   

[barrier]

Do you accept that "an abductor DID abduct Madeleine" as a fact?

For you seem to be using that as a fact in your baseline calculation (time period between Ben and Madeleine)

Who is Ben please.

[Robittybob1]

You refused to answer yes or no, a question which can very easily be answered yes or no.  Try it.  I bet you can’t. 

What were the odds of that bet?

[Vertigo Swirl]

What were the odds of that bet?

2-1.