what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Eleanor]

Under John's latest directive, I am trying really hard not to sanction the comments of anyone, because I don't want anyone to be banned for two days. 

Take Note.

[slartibartfast]

I can prove it.  One set of possibilities/to the other set.  Where do you put these exciting and intelligent folks third set?  Unless you can answer it, there's your proof!

Of course some of us know the difference between the odds of an event and the probabilities of different events.

[slartibartfast]

Some of us know there's only TWO possibilities in the odds NOT three. That's the point!

I understand that.

[Vertigo Swirl]

I understand that.

Then you understand Cheeky Monkey’s odds which put the likelihood that Madeleine was abducted at 4.25 billion to one.  Do you agree with this assessment?

[Angelo222]

Under John's latest directive, I am trying really hard not to sanction the comments of anyone, because I don't want anyone to be banned for two days. 

Take Note.

I can think of one member who's heading over that particular cliff.   

[Angelo222]

They don't have to agree with my odds, no one does, the result is the ONLY thing that will determine their accuracy but they do understand the fundamental principle that three can't be squeezed into two, no matter what you try to do. 

All the other odds/VS's ONE stranger abduction.

Who cares who agrees? You just keep up the good work. 

Please moderate your language Cheeky Monkey and abide by the forum protocols.

[Vertigo Swirl]

That's the bit you just don't get, do you? I'm giving you the odds for what WE KNOW DID HAPPEN. So you'll NEVER get much more accurate odds than that. NEVER. Don't you like accurate odds?

We are told an abductor DID abduct Madeleine.
We know a cadaver dog DID pick ONE apartment of the SEVEN it searched.
We know an abductor DID pick the ONE unlocked apartment of a possible FOUR.
We know an abductor DID pick the ONE child of the THREE NOT confined to a cot.

You will never be able to alter the odds of WHAT WE KNOW DID HAPPEN. That's a fact.
Unless it didn't happen at all. You can alter them then. 

Monkey, see above. 

[Mr Gray]

What is there to moderate, it's the truth?

Since when did it become forum protocol for members to post down right lies about other members, uh?

VS: I was only quoting CM who has repeatedly claimed on this thread “we know Madeleine was abducted “.  I think his plot may have woke and wandered tbh.

What about moderating that heap of who flung dung, uh?

I would say the facts of the case make abduction highly likeley

[Vertigo Swirl]

I would say the facts of the case make abduction highly likeley

Odds on favourite in fact.

[barrier]

Odds on favourite in fact.

On whose terms,Do Carmo isn't of that opinion,

[Mr Gray]

On whose terms,Do Carmo isn't of that opinion,

How do you know... What's his opinion

[Vertigo Swirl]

On whose terms,Do Carmo isn't of that opinion,

Go into any bookies office and ask them.

[Robittybob1]

Go into any bookies office and ask them.

Could someone actually do that and report back to the forum please?

[The General]

Could someone actually do that and report back to the forum please?

I did this. Just managed to nip in before they closed. They said 'what?'

[Robittybob1]

I did this. Just managed to nip in before they closed. They said 'what?'

So are the bookies not taking bets on Madeleine McCann being found?