what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Robittybob1]

Whatever the odds you're all in the ONE.

Would you be willing to take a bet at the odds you have calculated? 

Try Willie Hill and you'll get 4.25 billion to one.

I'll put a pound on that.

[Angelo222]

I would say the facts of the case make abduction highly likeley

Don't know about these facts but there isn't a scrap of evidence to support abduction from the apartment, in fact the opposite is true. Lifted from the street outside dead or alive is much more likely and supported by real evidence.

[Robittybob1]

Don't know about these facts but there isn't a scrap of evidence to support abduction from the apartment, in fact the opposite is true. Lifted from the street outside dead or alive is much more likely and supported by real evidence.

I agree.

[Robittybob1]

Gerry McCann: "If you think about the millions and millions of British families who go to the Mediterranean each year, really the chances of this happening are in the order of 100 million to one."
                                                    FACTS OF THE CASE
7 apartments the dog DID pick ONE =6/1 100,000,000 x 6 = 600,000,000 + Gerry's 100,000,000 = 700,000,000.
4 apartments the abductor picked the ONE unlocked one = 3/1. 3 x 700,000,000 = 2,100,000,000 + 700,000,000 = 2,800,000,000.
3 children ONE abducted not confined to a cot = 2/1. 2 x 2,800,000,000 = 5,600,000,000 + 2,800,000,000 = 8,400,000,000.

Use Gerry's odds if you like. But SY are closing in on the ONE as we speak so I'd get into Willie Hill's now if I were you.

Could you do that for me please?  I'll pay you back out of the winnings.

[Vertigo Swirl]

4.25 billion to your ONE.

https://www.quora.com/Statistically-speaking-what-most-likely-happened-to-Madeleine-McCann

[Robittybob1]

Winnings? You'll get them at the end, not before. 

I'm gonna leave you lot to it, you have my odds. I'll be sure to pop back in if they come up.
You can be even more sure I'll pop back in when they don't come up.

 

Did you put a pound on for me before you go?  Cheers - thanks for your efforts to educate us about "odds".

[Vertigo Swirl]

I gave up on that bit with you 20 pages ago. Impossible! But I did stick a tenner on the abductor's nose on your your behalf. No each ways.

I'll be sure to see you, VS and Davel at the finishing line! 

How many times have you waved goodbye on this thread?

[Robittybob1]

I gave up on that bit with you 20 pages ago. Impossible! But I did stick a tenner on the abductor's nose on your your behalf. No each ways.

I'll be sure to see you, VS and Davel at the finishing line! 

Keep the proof of placing the bet.

[Parky41]

Amongst the discussion on odds relative to children abducted in Europe in the past 19yrs, I wonder if the figures amongst refugee children missing/abducted has wagered into this factor? Just a thought?

https://www.newsdeeply.com/refugees/articles/2017/07/20/no-one-is-counting-europes-missing-refugee-children

[Brietta]

Amongst the discussion on odds relative to children abducted in Europe in the past 19yrs, I wonder if the figures amongst refugee children missing/abducted has wagered into this factor? Just a thought?

https://www.newsdeeply.com/refugees/articles/2017/07/20/no-one-is-counting-europes-missing-refugee-children

I often give a great deal of thought to the countless displaced, orphaned,exploited and bartered child slaves which is our worldwide legacy.

[Parky41]

I often give a great deal of thought to the countless displaced, orphaned,exploited and bartered child slaves which is our worldwide legacy.

As I often do. Just kind of struck me that the basis of figures was highlighted amongst the main factors of thought, displacing those we often forget to include.

[sadie]

I often give a great deal of thought to the countless displaced, orphaned,exploited and bartered child slaves which is our worldwide legacy.

Me too. 
Horrific, how so many have vanished' 
Good to know that others are concerned.



It doesn't bear thinking about, does it ?

But I have been thinking over a number of years ... and have one idea at least, with a small sprinkling of pointers but not enough to have any conviction

[barrier]

How do you know... What's his opinion

Abduction is not a given
29:30 in M Brunt: Do you accept the girl was abducted.
Do Carmo in reply;We don't know what happened,we have to be prepared to deal with  different scenarios.

https://youtu.be/FX3u2Hp42ic

[Holly Goodhead]

Abduction is not a given
29:30 in M Brunt: Do you accept the girl was abducted.
Do Carmo in reply;We don't know what happened,we have to be prepared to deal with  different scenarios.

https://youtu.be/FX3u2Hp42ic

I don't know how anyone can rule out abduction from the apartment or 'woke and wandered' and was abducted from outside the apartment.  What evidence exists supporting any hypothesis?  It seems to me zilch.   

[Mr Gray]

Abduction is not a given
29:30 in M Brunt: Do you accept the girl was abducted.
Do Carmo in reply;We don't know what happened,we have to be prepared to deal with  different scenarios.

https://youtu.be/FX3u2Hp42ic

So daCarmo definitely does not rule out abduction and you don't know if he believes or not it's the most probable scenario...