what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

Get a grip for god's sake. The abduction theory is fundamentally based on all those things happening.
Madeleine got abducted hypothetically right? Each and every one of those statistical odds occurred (if the McCanns are telling the truth) didn't they?


If you are seriously suggesting that none of those things affect the figure the way I KNOW it does, then I cite that as evidential proof that you are living in cloud cuckoo land.

If Madeleine was put to bed in a cot and the apartment door locked where does that leave your abduction theory then?

You really need to pull your socks up laddie.   

the abduction theory is based on maddies disappearance ....the unlikelihood of the mccanns being involved...and according to the archiving report the unlikelihood of woke and wandered..

there are only basically three options

[Mr Gray]

Get a grip for god's sake. The abduction theory is fundamentally based on all those things happening.
Madeleine got abducted hypothetically right? Each and every one of those statistical odds occurred (if the McCanns are telling the truth) didn't they?


If you are seriously suggesting that none of those things affect the figure the way I KNOW it does, then I cite that as evidential proof that you are living in cloud cuckoo land.

If Madeleine was put to bed in a cot and the apartment door locked where does that leave your abduction theory then?

You really need to pull your socks up laddie.   

the massive flaw in your raesoning is taht you think the abduction could not have happened because it was so unlikeley...thats a totally false premise.

[Mr Gray]

If there is a flaw, it's not in MY reasoning, I never set the statistical odds. They are what they are and your lack of understanding is what it is.

Of course the odds say it could have happened, you fail to understand yet again that in the odds there is always the ONE.

You forgot that didn't you. There's the big giant flaw right there, in YOUR thinking.  The statistical odds do all my thinking for me.

But there are a whole more odds in all the others.

There, no flaw, in my thinking... It's totally correct

[Vertigo Swirl]

It boggles the mind how incapable of logical thought some people can be.  The odds of being a victim of hit and run are 10,000 to one.  The odds of a body found lying in the middle of the road being the victim of a hit and run are...?  Work it out.

[Vertigo Swirl]

It just boggles my mind when I read how out of touch from the reality of statistical odds you really are if you are deluded enough to believe logic is involved. Dearie, dearie me.. logic?
Do you think the McCanns applied any logic when they decided to be the ONE family to neglect their kids in an unlocked apartment?
Or do you think the Jimmy the abductor applied any logic when he stole the ONE biggest, heaviest child who was not confined to a cot?
What logic do you think the cadaver dog was applying when it ignored the six apartments it searched and decided to bark like hell at the ONE the child went missing from?   

Stay out the bookies, they'd take you to the cleaners.
That's about the best logic we can apply to the statistical odds where you're concerned. 

Logical thinking and statistical odds? 

Back to the drawing board for VS.
I suggest you come back with some serious suggestions.
 

So you couldn’t answer my very simple question.  Why am I not surprised.  You must be on a wind up because no one could be that thick in real life, surely??!

[Vertigo Swirl]

They could, really. You attempted to apply logical thinking to the statistical odds. Don't be silly.

If you can give me access to the UK's road traffic data then I will give you, your answer in two ticks of a lamb's tail?

If you wish to apply logical thinking to your statistical question, don't you think it would be logical to supply the relevant data?

Don't you ever think logically? 

Why am I not surprised

Oh I see, that explains it.  Logic cannot be applied when discussing statistics.  So if the odds of being the victim of a hit and run are 10,000 to 1, then if you see a body lying in the middle of the road then then likelihood of it having been the victim of a hit and run is also 10,000 to 1.  Of course, it all makes perfectly illogical sense now.

[Vertigo Swirl]

When the police come to investigate the body lying dead in the middle of the road, they will say to themselves the odds of being killed in a hit and run are 10,000 to one so lets look for a more likely explanation for death, like cancer as theres a 50% chance of getting cancer in a lifetime so it’s far more likely this person died from that.

[Vertigo Swirl]

 

[Brietta]

It boggles the mind how incapable of logical thought some people can be.  The odds of being a victim of hit and run are 10,000 to one.  The odds of a body found lying in the middle of the road being the victim of a hit and run are...?  Work it out.

Not to trivialise the events the odds of someone found lying in the street https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2244544/Pictured-Stowaway-fell-thousands-feet-London-street-clinging-planes-landing-gear.html - or in someone's flower bed https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/sunbather-almost-killed-by-stowaway-who-fell-1000-metres-from-kenya-airways-jet-in-london/news-story/c5316398aa9483e83a73d487c1202f1b - having fallen from a plane must be absolutely huge.  Yet it has happened.

Or what about someone leaping onto the bonnet of your car and attacking the windscreen with a blade https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1684668/beggar-jumps-on-car-attacks-windscreen-with-knife.  The odds against that must be exceedingly slim ... yet it has happened.

Thankfully the odds against a child being kidnapped by a stranger are also very slim ... but as you point out, these things do happen and as there is no evidence supporting any other explanation I think there is plenty of room for giving it credence. 
Particularly as that is very obviously the line being followed by the present investigators of the Judicial Police and Scotland Yard.

[The General]

Well this thread now makes no sense whatsoever. Removing the counter argument will still be remembered you know, guys, we saw it. Poor show, poor show.
Besides, it would seem you're all missing the point as usual.
As I recall I had to explain the basic premise of if the odds are higher it means it's more unlikely - not too long ago either. Probably deleted now, alas, you could go back and refresh yourselves.

[Mr Gray]

Well this thread now makes no sense whatsoever. Removing the counter argument will still be remembered you know, guys, we saw it. Poor show, poor show.
Besides, it would seem you're all missing the point as usual.
As I recall I had to explain the basic premise of if the odds are higher it means it's more unlikely - not too long ago either. Probably deleted now, alas, you could go back and refresh yourselves.

it would depend on why they were removed..perhaps monkey requested it...or their my be other reasons. his membership apppears to have gone too.

You certainly havent explained anything to me re odds....and im missing no point. It was highly unlikely Maddie would be abducted....once she was missing its likely...highly imo...that she was abducted. the two events are different and therefore the odds are different...monkey couldnt seem to see this...perhaps you should have explained it too him.

[The General]

it would depend on why they were removed..perhaps monkey requested it...or their my be other reasons. his membership apppears to have gone too.

You certainly havent explained anything to me re odds....and im missing no point. It was highly unlikely Maddie would be abducted....once she was missing its likely...highly imo...that she was abducted. the two events are different and therefore the odds are different...monkey couldnt seem to see this...perhaps you should have explained it too him.

I explained the rudiments to she whose name shall not be uttered. It was a revelation.
But let's talk odds again. Would the odds of MM being abducted improve or decrease if the patio door is locked?

[Mr Gray]

I explained the rudiments to she whose name shall not be uttered. It was a revelation.
But let's talk odds again. Would the odds of MM being abducted improve or decrease if the patio door is locked?

is this pre abduction or post...pre it would decrease the odds....if the door was locked it would decrease the chance of woke and wandered...parental involvemnet stays the same ...so abduction more likely

[The General]

is this pre abduction or post...pre it would decrease the odds....if the door was locked it would decrease the chance of woke and wandered...parental involvemnet stays the same ...so abduction more likely

So with the door locked it decreases the chance of abduction and woke and wandered.
With the door open it increases the chances of....everything.

[Mr Gray]

So with the door locked it decreases the chance of abduction and woke and wandered.
With the door open it increases the chances of....everything.

You have to seperate the two incidents...would be abducted...was abducted, thats the mistake monkey made