A Good, Bad or Average Theory What's The Difference?

[G-Unit]

Either Amaral’s theories are credible or they’re not - which is it?

Just like the McCann's theories it's a matter of opinion.

[Mr Gray]

Just like the McCann's theories it's a matter of opinion.

Its a matter of evidence

[Vertigo Swirl]

Just like the McCann's theories it's a matter of opinion.

Oh, I forgot.  Just like Jeremy Corbyn you don’t do opinions.

[G-Unit]

Its a matter of evidence

Really?

[barrier]

Really?

Groundhog day,again and again and again......

[Brietta]

It is my contention that Amaral's theories were as good as if not better than those of the McCanns.

Then why not make the attempt to justify your opinion with first hand evidence as I have done when expressing my opinion.

Amaral's theories were certainly not good enough for the Judicial police who inherited the morass left behind when he was sacked from the case.

Madeleine: New police chief's fury over the mess he inherited from his predecessor
Sunday 21 October 2007

Paulo Rebelo, the new police chief leading the Madeleine McCann investigation, is furious at how it was left in disarray by his predecessor.

According to reports, officers have spent the past fortnight processing information left lying around on scraps of paper and following leads ignored by police working under Chief Inspector Goncalo Amaral.

Following Amaral's removal after he criticised British police, Rebelo, one of Portugal's national deputy police chiefs, is reviewing the whole forensic investigation because of earlier procedural errors.

__________________________________________________________________

It was assumed that because Rebelo had brought in experts to his team, in particular a renowned murder specialist Antonio Teixeira, that as well as digitising the hand written notes inherited from Amaral and his team he was following the same theory concerning Madeleine's parents.
He wasn't though.
He was checking out the options and Kate and Gerry checked out squeaky clean.

__________________________________________________________________

A colleague said: "By bringing him onto the case, the police are sending out a clear sign that the main lead as far as they concerned is homicide.

"You don't invest effort in that sort of hypothesis with just the slight suspicion a violent crime has taken place. Antonio is a breath of fresh air for this investigation. If he has to choose between the direct route and a more roundabout one, he chooses the first to resolve a crime.

"And he always gets it right."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-new-police-chiefs-fury-over-the-mess-he-inherited-from-his-predecessor-6669085.html


Therefore official police investigators don't take slightest bit of interest in Amaral's theorising.  Not the Policia Judiciaria investigation which followed immediately on from the debacle left by him.  Not by the specialist team brought in by Rebelo particularly Antonio Teixeira.  Not today's Policia Judiciaria.  Nor today's Scotland Yard.
So what does that tell you about Amaral's theories.

[G-Unit]

Then why not make the attempt to justify your opinion with first hand evidence as I have done when expressing my opinion.

Amaral's theories were certainly not good enough for the Judicial police who inherited the morass left behind when he was sacked from the case.

Madeleine: New police chief's fury over the mess he inherited from his predecessor
Sunday 21 October 2007

Paulo Rebelo, the new police chief leading the Madeleine McCann investigation, is furious at how it was left in disarray by his predecessor.

According to reports, officers have spent the past fortnight processing information left lying around on scraps of paper and following leads ignored by police working under Chief Inspector Goncalo Amaral.

Following Amaral's removal after he criticised British police, Rebelo, one of Portugal's national deputy police chiefs, is reviewing the whole forensic investigation because of earlier procedural errors.

__________________________________________________________________

It was assumed that because Rebelo had brought in experts to his team, in particular a renowned murder specialist Antonio Teixeira, that as well as digitising the hand written notes inherited from Amaral and his team he was following the same theory concerning Madeleine's parents.
He wasn't though.
He was checking out the options and Kate and Gerry checked out squeaky clean.

__________________________________________________________________

A colleague said: "By bringing him onto the case, the police are sending out a clear sign that the main lead as far as they concerned is homicide.

"You don't invest effort in that sort of hypothesis with just the slight suspicion a violent crime has taken place. Antonio is a breath of fresh air for this investigation. If he has to choose between the direct route and a more roundabout one, he chooses the first to resolve a crime.

"And he always gets it right."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-new-police-chiefs-fury-over-the-mess-he-inherited-from-his-predecessor-6669085.html


Therefore official police investigators don't take slightest bit of interest in Amaral's theorising.  Not the Policia Judiciaria investigation which followed immediately on from the debacle left by him.  Not by the specialist team brought in by Rebelo particularly Antonio Teixeira.  Not today's Policia Judiciaria.  Nor today's Scotland Yard.
So what does that tell you about Amaral's theories.

First hand evidence from the newspapers? Here's what the first investigation concluded;

While it is an unavoidable fact that Madeleine disappeared from Apartment 5A of the 'Ocean Club', the manner and circumstances under which this happened are not - despite the numerous diligences made in that sense -, therefore the range of crimes that were indicated and referred to during the inquiry remains untouched.
https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/LEGAL_SUMMARY.htm

That means they couldn't decide what happened, so all possibilities remained, including Amaral's theories and those of the McCanns.

[Vertigo Swirl]

First hand evidence from the newspapers? Here's what the first investigation concluded;

While it is an unavoidable fact that Madeleine disappeared from Apartment 5A of the 'Ocean Club', the manner and circumstances under which this happened are not - despite the numerous diligences made in that sense -, therefore the range of crimes that were indicated and referred to during the inquiry remains untouched.
https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/LEGAL_SUMMARY.htm

That means they couldn't decide what happened, so all possibilities remained, including Amaral's theories and those of the McCanns.

Does that mean all possibilities have equal weight?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Amaral’s theory is that Madeleine died more or less instantly in a fall off a sofa having been given calpol, that her father took her body in his arms and marched it through the streets of PdL before closing time to bury it on the beach, then returned back to the apartment where an abduction was staged, then a few days later (in a car) the McCanns revisted the beach, dug up the body and re-hid it, all while being subject to the most intense media and police attention.

And people believe this theory is MORE credible than the one which suggests some stranger(s) entered an unlocked apartment during a brief window of opportunity while the parents and their friendd were at dinner and  removed Madeleine from it, in a matter of a few short minutes. 

I know which theory sounds more credible to me and it sure as hell ain’t Amaral’s.

[Brietta]

First hand evidence from the newspapers? Here's what the first investigation concluded;

While it is an unavoidable fact that Madeleine disappeared from Apartment 5A of the 'Ocean Club', the manner and circumstances under which this happened are not - despite the numerous diligences made in that sense -, therefore the range of crimes that were indicated and referred to during the inquiry remains untouched.
https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/LEGAL_SUMMARY.htm

That means they couldn't decide what happened, so all possibilities remained, including Amaral's theories and those of the McCanns.

Amaral's theory resulted in Kate and Gerry becoming arguidos.  The prosecutors did not agree with that, did they?

Snip
b) The archiving of the Process concerning arguidos Gerald Patrick McCann and Kate Marie Healy, because there are no indications of the practise of any crime under the dispositions of article 277 number 1 of the Penal Process Code.
 
Article 277 number 3 of the Penal Process Code is to be fulfilled.
 
Under article 214 number 1 item a) of the Penal Process Code, the coercion measures that have been imposed on the arguidos are declared extinct.
 
Portimão, 21.07.08
 
The Republic’s Prosecutor
 
(José de Magalhães e Menezes)
 
The Joint General Prosecutor
 
(João Melchior Gomes)
 
in: Processo 201/07.0 GALGS – Volume XVII – pages 4639-4649 (Public Prosecutor’s Archiving Dispatch)

_______________________________________________________________________

Which makes a nonsense of Amaral's theories regarding Kate and Gerry ... so that's another one bites the dust.

[G-Unit]

Amaral's theory resulted in Kate and Gerry becoming arguidos.  The prosecutors did not agree with that, did they?

Snip
b) The archiving of the Process concerning arguidos Gerald Patrick McCann and Kate Marie Healy, because there are no indications of the practise of any crime under the dispositions of article 277 number 1 of the Penal Process Code.
 
Article 277 number 3 of the Penal Process Code is to be fulfilled.
 
Under article 214 number 1 item a) of the Penal Process Code, the coercion measures that have been imposed on the arguidos are declared extinct.
 
Portimão, 21.07.08
 
The Republic’s Prosecutor
 
(José de Magalhães e Menezes)
 
The Joint General Prosecutor
 
(João Melchior Gomes)
 
in: Processo 201/07.0 GALGS – Volume XVII – pages 4639-4649 (Public Prosecutor’s Archiving Dispatch)

_______________________________________________________________________

Which makes a nonsense of Amaral's theories regarding Kate and Gerry ... so that's another one bites the dust.

All theories were tested and none were chosen as more likely. Although the prosecutor thought she was more likely to be dead than alive.

it was not possible to obtain any piece of evidence that would allow for a medium man, under the light of the criteria of logics, of normality and of the general rules of experience, to formulate any lucid, sensate, serious and honest conclusion about the circumstances under which the child was removed from the apartment (whether dead or alive, whether killed in a neglectful homicide or an intended homicide, whether the victim of a targeted abduction or an opportunistic abduction), nor even to produce a consistent prognosis about her destiny and inclusively - the most dramatic - to establish whether she is still alive or if she is dead, as seems more likely.
https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/LEGAL_SUMMARY.htm

[Vertigo Swirl]

All theories were tested and none were chosen as more likely. Although the prosecutor thought she was more likely to be dead than alive.

it was not possible to obtain any piece of evidence that would allow for a medium man, under the light of the criteria of logics, of normality and of the general rules of experience, to formulate any lucid, sensate, serious and honest conclusion about the circumstances under which the child was removed from the apartment (whether dead or alive, whether killed in a neglectful homicide or an intended homicide, whether the victim of a targeted abduction or an opportunistic abduction), nor even to produce a consistent prognosis about her destiny and inclusively - the most dramatic - to establish whether she is still alive or if she is dead, as seems more likely.
https://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/LEGAL_SUMMARY.htm

Perhaps that was the problem:  they were all “medium men” therefore not the sharpest tools in the box. 

[barrier]

Does that mean all possibilities have equal weight?

Pretty much so according to Rowley in 2017.

 All the hypothesises that you or I could come up with, they all have to remain open and the key lines of enquiry open today focus on one or two of those areas but we have to keep them all open until we get to that critical piece of evidence that narrows it down and helps us to be more confident as to exactly what has happened on
the day Maddie went missing.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Pretty much so according to Rowley in 2017.

 All the hypothesises that you or I could come up with, they all have to remain open and the key lines of enquiry open today focus on one or two of those areas but we have to keep them all open until we get to that critical piece of evidence that narrows it down and helps us to be more confident as to exactly what has happened on
the day Maddie went missing.

Was this before or after he made it clear the McCanns weren’t suspects?

[Mr Gray]

I don't see amarals theory as being possible.  How can a nearly four year old child fall off a sofa and die in the timeframe suggested... It simply is impossible.  Why can't anaral see this