Re-evaluation of the blood and silencer evidence

[G-Unit]

              http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=258.msg4394#msg4394

Is this where the idea of 13 markers came from?

The first fact is that these tests took place in 2001.

The second fact is that 13 markers were the amount which, according to the FSS, if found in a 3 person mixture, could be shared by all 3 by chance. The figure 13 has nothing to do with Sheila Caffell.

As 17 of Sheila's 20 markers were found within the mixed results the FSS said this was positive evidence that her DNA was present.
[Point number 496]

The FSS didn't have Sheila's DNA, all they had was her biological mother's. Everyone has 20 DNA markers. Ten from their mother and ten from their father. How, then, did the FSS identify 17 markers as belonging to Sheila?
[Point number 478] http://www.homepage-link.to/justice/judgements/Bamber/index.html

[Brietta]

Is this where the idea of 13 markers came from?

The first fact is that these tests took place in 2001.

The second fact is that 13 markers were the amount which, according to the FSS, if found in a 3 person mixture, could be shared by all 3 by chance. The figure 13 has nothing to do with Sheila Caffell.

As 17 of Sheila's 20 markers were found within the mixed results the FSS said this was positive evidence that her DNA was present.
[Point number 496]

The FSS didn't have Sheila's DNA, all they had was her biological mother's. Everyone has 20 DNA markers. Ten from their mother and ten from their father. How, then, did the FSS identify 17 markers as belonging to Sheila?
[Point number 478] http://www.homepage-link.to/justice/judgements/Bamber/index.html

Snip
DNA. Seventeen of the twenty bands attributable to Sheila Caffell were detected in DNA from the internal swabbings of the sound moderator. Random chance would have suggested thirteen common bands of DNA would be found and hence since there was significantly more than thirteen, it provided much support for the DNA of Sheila Caffell being in the moderator.

NB. It is not known if this DNA came from blood although it is most likely since blood matching Sheila Caffell's blood group was extracted from the sound moderator in 1985.

https://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=261.msg4432#msg4432

[Common sense]

I think those referring to '13 markers' are mistakingly using the term 'markers' instead of 'bands':

More pathetic pedantry.

[Eleanor]

Criticisms of Spelling and Gramma are not permitted.

[Holly Goodhead]

Snip
DNA. Seventeen of the twenty bands attributable to Sheila Caffell were detected in DNA from the internal swabbings of the sound moderator. Random chance would have suggested thirteen common bands of DNA would be found and hence since there was significantly more than thirteen, it provided much supportfor the DNA of Sheila Caffell being in the moderator.

NB. It is not known if this DNA came from blood although it is most likely since blood matching Sheila Caffell's blood group was extracted from the sound moderator in 1985.

https://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=261.msg4432#msg4432

No.  The CoA did not establish there was "much support" for the DNA of Sheila Caffell being in the moderator as you've stated above.

496. In the interpretation of the results, Dr Clayton called on behalf of the appellant and Miss Groombridge, called on behalf of the prosecution disagreed to a limited extent. Both agreed that Sheila Caffell could have contributed to this mixture of DNA but Miss Groombridge was prepared to go further and say that the findings provided support for the proposition that she had contributed to the mixture. She was, however, unable to determine the level of support provided. In her evidence to the court she explained her reasoning. Seventeen of the twenty bands attributable to Sheila Caffell had been detected in DNA from the internal swabbings. Random chance would have suggested thirteen common bands would be found and hence since there was significantly more than thirteen, it provided some support for the DNA of Sheila Caffell being in the moderator. However, Miss Groombridge was unable to perform any sort of statistical evaluation of the likelihood of this happening and hence unable to assess the strength of the support. Dr Clayton, whilst acknowledging the respect that he had for Miss Groombridge's views and whilst recognising the possible validity of the point that she made, felt that it was unsafe to draw any such conclusion. Whilst we recognise that there may very well be merit in Miss Groombridge's evidence in this regard, we doubt very much whether a jury would have been prepared to place any significant reliance upon it so that it might have altered any view which they otherwise would have reached.

497. We, therefore, consider the matter on the basis that the conclusions to be drawn from the DNA evidence are:

i) June Bamber's DNA was in the sound moderator at the time of the DNA examination;

ii) Sheila Caffell's DNA may have been in the sound moderator but it was not possible to conclude one way or the other whether it was; and

iii) there was evidence of DNA from at least one male.

[Holly Goodhead]

More pathetic pedantry.

Please explain?

[Holly Goodhead]

Is this where the idea of 13 markers came from?

The first fact is that these tests took place in 2001.

The second fact is that 13 markers were the amount which, according to the FSS, if found in a 3 person mixture, could be shared by all 3 by chance. The figure 13 has nothing to do with Sheila Caffell.

As 17 of Sheila's 20 markers were found within the mixed results the FSS said this was positive evidence that her DNA was present.
[Point number 496]

The FSS didn't have Sheila's DNA, all they had was her biological mother's. Everyone has 20 DNA markers. Ten from their mother and ten from their father. How, then, did the FSS identify 17 markers as belonging to Sheila?
[Point number 478] http://www.homepage-link.to/justice/judgements/Bamber/index.html

17 bands not markers.

[Holly Goodhead]

Example calculation used for bands:

DNA concentration was determined by electrophoresis in 8% agarose gel. 1µl, 0.5µl and 0.25µl of ?phage/Bst EIIDNA were loaded in the gel to assist the quantification.

1. Add up the sizes of all ? DNA bands to calculate total size of ?phage genome

? genome= 48161 bp

2. Choose a band with a similar size to the plasmid DNA

3.675bp

3. Calculate the percentage of ? DNA genome represented by that ?band.

%= 3.675*100/48161= 7,63%

4. Calculate relative concentration of the selected band:
Stock solution of ? phage DNA contains 500 ng genomic DNA/µl
500 ng genomic DNA/µl* 7.63/100= 38,15ng of 3675 bp band/µl

See third diagram for above calculation

[G-Unit]

Snip
DNA. Seventeen of the twenty bands attributable to Sheila Caffell were detected in DNA from the internal swabbings of the sound moderator. Random chance would have suggested thirteen common bands of DNA would be found and hence since there was significantly more than thirteen, it provided much support for the DNA of Sheila Caffell being in the moderator.

NB. It is not known if this DNA came from blood although it is most likely since blood matching Sheila Caffell's blood group was extracted from the sound moderator in 1985.

https://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=261.msg4432#msg4432

I'm used to talking of markers. How do they differ from bands?

[Brietta]

No.  The CoA did not establish there was "much support" for the DNA of Sheila Caffell being in the moderator as you've stated above.

496. In the interpretation of the results, Dr Clayton called on behalf of the appellant and Miss Groombridge, called on behalf of the prosecution disagreed to a limited extent. Both agreed that Sheila Caffell could have contributed to this mixture of DNA but Miss Groombridge was prepared to go further and say that the findings provided support for the proposition that she had contributed to the mixture. She was, however, unable to determine the level of support provided. In her evidence to the court she explained her reasoning. Seventeen of the twenty bands attributable to Sheila Caffell had been detected in DNA from the internal swabbings. Random chance would have suggested thirteen common bands would be found and hence since there was significantly more than thirteen, it provided some support for the DNA of Sheila Caffell being in the moderator. However, Miss Groombridge was unable to perform any sort of statistical evaluation of the likelihood of this happening and hence unable to assess the strength of the support. Dr Clayton, whilst acknowledging the respect that he had for Miss Groombridge's views and whilst recognising the possible validity of the point that she made, felt that it was unsafe to draw any such conclusion. Whilst we recognise that there may very well be merit in Miss Groombridge's evidence in this regard, we doubt very much whether a jury would have been prepared to place any significant reliance upon it so that it might have altered any view which they otherwise would have reached.

497. We, therefore, consider the matter on the basis that the conclusions to be drawn from the DNA evidence are:

i) June Bamber's DNA was in the sound moderator at the time of the DNA examination;

ii) Sheila Caffell's DNA may have been in the sound moderator but it was not possible to conclude one way or the other whether it was; and

iii) there was evidence of DNA from at least one male.

Just to simplify matters.

Let us look at what we know about the Anschutz rifle and more importantly the sound moderator.

• the rifle was used to control vermin on the farm
• the blood recovered from the sound moderator was human and had been contributed by three different people (two females and one male)
• it was not possible to 'plant' blood in the position inside the moderator where it was found

Given that the weapon used to murder the family in White House Farm was the Anschutz I think a reasonable deduction can be arrived at from the information I've posted above.

[Holly Goodhead]

I'm used to talking of markers. How do they differ from bands?

A genetic marker is a gene or DNA sequence with a known location on a chromosome that can be used to identify individuals or species.

Electrophoresis a process which enables the sorting of molecules based on size. Using an electric field, molecules (such as DNA) can be made to move through a gel made of agarose or polyacrylamide. The electric field consists of a negative charge at one end which pushes the molecules through the gel, and a positive charge at the other end that pulls the molecules through the gel. The molecules being sorted are dispensed into a well in the gel material. The gel is placed in an electrophoresis chamber, which is then connected to a power source. When the electric current is applied, the larger molecules move more slowly through the gel while the smaller molecules move faster. The different sized molecules form distinct bands on the gel.

[Holly Goodhead]

Just to simplify matters.

Let us look at what we know about the Anschutz rifle and more importantly the sound moderator.

• the rifle was used to control vermin on the farm
• the blood recovered from the sound moderator was human and had been contributed by three different people (two females and one male)
• it was not possible to 'plant' blood in the position inside the moderator where it was found

Given that the weapon used to murder the family in White House Farm was the Anschutz I think a reasonable deduction can be arrived at from the information I've posted above.

You are conflating the blood serology tests undertaken in 1985 and the DNA tests undertaken in 2002.

The former found the blood flake matched SC's blood groups which at the time were shared by 8% of the white British population.

The latter concluded the following:

497. We, therefore, consider the matter on the basis that the conclusions to be drawn from the DNA evidence are:

i) June Bamber's DNA was in the sound moderator at the time of the DNA examination;

ii) Sheila Caffell's DNA may have been in the sound moderator but it was not possible to conclude one way or the other whether it was; and

iii) there was evidence of DNA from at least one male.

And of course the above doesn't prove how the blood came to be in the silencer.

[Holly Goodhead]

The CoA concluded the following re the DNA tests:

506. We have no doubt at all that if this evidence had been placed before a jury, they would have concluded, as we do, that in accordance with the emphasised part of Mr Webster's report quoted above, the DNA testing results were rendered "completely meaningless".

[Holly Goodhead]

You still haven’t explained why 1 billion to one is acceptable to you, but 1 trillion is accordimg to you beyomd absurd when there are only 7 billion people on the planet.

Match Probabilities

A full DNA-17 profile obtained from a crime scene samples compared with a full DNA-17 subject profile will provide a match probability estimated in the order of 1 in a billion (a billion is one thousand million).

https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/dna-17-profiling

[Vertigo Swirl]

Match Probabilities

A full DNA-17 profile obtained from a crime scene samples compared with a full DNA-17 subject profile will provide a match probability estimated in the order of 1 in a billion (a billion is one thousand million).

https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/dna-17-profiling

What does that mean?