The first two I cited had no signs of a break in, others were described as having occurred because guests left their doors unlocked, but you see no relevance to this case whatsoever?
Well yes and no. Firstly a burglar is not the same type of criminal as a child predator/abductor. Yes, I'm sure there are men (and women) out there that fit into both categories, but opportunistic burglaries in unlocked apartments don't tend, judging by the googling I've done this morning, to end in children being abducted. Burglars tend to be sneaky, sly, highly-strung and nervous individuals who do all they can to avoid detection and confrontation. Studies show that child abductors tend to have a criminal past and a third of them or so have done burglaries, but I've found no such studies showing what percentage of all burglars caught also have been child abductors! I know it's always possible it was "the first time" but we're talking coincidence upon coincidence here.
What appears to be being done by the supporters of the abduction theory is to demonstrate that Praia da Luz was a hotbed of criminal activity with nefarious types roaming the streets in the hope of taking advantage of an unlocked apartment or two. This fails to take into account the enormous difference between the criminal types that would be involved in burglaries as opposed to child abduction. If one were to believe the Sun, for example, every swarthy itinerant for a 100 mile radius would be declared a "weirdo" and "potential abductor" going by the stories that appeared around Gail Cooper's "creepy man" 15 minutes of fame.
Whilst statistics and odds fail to cope with chance events, one has to say that for all this to come to pass, the McCanns would have to have been the unluckiest people in the world. Firstly this abductor has to hang around for long enough to case out the apartments, then he ignores Paul Gordon's children for the week, then he somehow gets hold of a master key or copy of apartment 5a's key, then he watches and waits, undetected by all for several more days whilst the McCanns repeatedly come and go at night leaving the kids alone, then he decides to strike at an unusual time (not just after the parents leave for the tapas bar, he waits until the coming and going starts, and THEN he strikes and manages to get in and out without leaving a shred of evidence. And as his victim he chooses a small 3-year old who does not fall into the usual paedophile profile. So the McCanns had to have all those coincidences happen AND they had to have the bad luck for it to be a paedophile that was into 3 year olds. Of course those sorts must exist, but think of the odds of them being in the right place at the right time.
And yet in this hotbed of criminal activity, the McCanns at least SAY they chose to leave their apartment unlocked (after Gerry's first statement, of course). So the OC would have had to have failed to mention the possibility of burglary (I don't know about anyone else, but in an obviously insecure location (how many commentators have pointed out the suitability of 5a for a "sneak attack"? Loads) I'd be very, very sensitive to burglary and break-ins). That the McCanns still chose to leave their children exposed like this amazes me, but that's just my viewpoint and I'm aware others don't hold the same opinion and, in Portuguese law at least, it would be hard to prove there was intent and so it cannot be constituted as criminal.
Apologies to all concerned for my abusive posts last night, long days, alcohol and forums don't mix.
