Are Victim Detection and Forensic Evidence Search Dogs reliable?

[pathfinder73]

What has that got to do with my post asking if it is feasible that no-one had ever bled in any of the other apartments or any of the other cars for years and years.     I don't think it is feasible/.   Do you?   And if you do - then please explain why.

Agreed it is not feasible. It was cadaver odour that changed Eddie's behaviour as soon as he got to 5A. He even alerted outside to it. The pants were contaminated and Eddie was chasing the scent in the underground car park. The scent coming from the car and the boot findings would've been the reason for Amaral's freezer to later moved out of PDL theory. That scent Eddie is trained to find is everywhere and connected to nobody else. Any detective would have them at the top of the possible suspects list.

[Cornelius]

That is an abstract argument though isn't it  ?

Let's consider the cadaver dog alerts in  this  case 

There is no reason at all to  'assume'  he was mistaken,  is there  ?  ...  I mean,  what if his alert was correct and he did  pick up the scent of the missing child's dead body in Apartment 5A because she had died there  ? 

That is entirely possible, isn't it  ?

You are forgetting that this case is in a curious bubble where probability theory, the laws of physics and indeed any property do not apply. It is a Panatobe Plain where anything may happen and be explained away in an innocent manner.

[Alfred R Jones]

You are forgetting that this case is in a curious bubble where probability theory, the laws of physics and indeed any property do not apply. It is a Panatobe Plain where anything may happen and be explained away in an innocent manner.

It seems however that certain things have been ruled out as utterly impossible by certain people eg: Eddie could not have been susceptible to unconscious handler bias (why not?) and to reference another thread, that it is impossible to walk up a street in flip-flops without making a large amount of noise that draws attention to yourself (why not?)

In fact  probability theory and the laws of physics need to be suspended completely in order to come up with a detailed theory of Madeleine's disappearance which has the parents as the culprits and which takes into account all the known facts of this case.  If I'm wrong about that then I would be most interested to hear why.

[icabodcrane]

I have not assumed anything, just posited the theory that like Zampo, and many other working dogs that have been proven to be susceptible to handler bias, that Eddie and / or Keela were similarly affected.  Anything's possible, but when weighing up the possibilities based on what we know of the case I would say my theory is more likely than the one that the dog alerted to Madeleine's corpse.  Just my opinion of course.

You are positing  that because a different dog,  in a different case,  alerted wrongly,  then it is 'likely'   that the dog in  this  case was wrong too

The  logic  is  broken 

I might just as well   propose that because the Metropolitan police falsified evidence in the Hillsborough enquiry then it is likely that they are falsifying evidence in the McCann case too !

That proposition,  like yours,  is non  sequitur  ...   it does not follow a chain of logic

[Alfred R Jones]

You are positing  that because a different dog,  in a different case,  alerted wrongly,  then it is 'likely'   that the dog in  this  case was wrong too

The  logic  is  broken 

I might just as well   propose that because the Metropolitan police falsified evidence in the Hillsborough enquiry then it is likely that they are falsifying evidence in the McCann case too !

That proposition,  like yours,  is non  sequitur  ...   it does not follow a chain of logic

You're not reading my posts carefully.   I have said that given cadaver dogs are sometimes prone to handler bias (this is proven and, unless you can show that it was completely impossible for Eddie and Keela to also be susceptible to handler bias, means that it is a possibility to be considered) and that when this is weighed up against the possibility that the dogs correctly alerted to a dead child in the apartment, the hire car etc,  it is more likely IN MY OPINION that handler bias is the explanation.  Perhaps you would like to explain why you believe that the more plausible explanation is that the dogs alerted to the body of Madeleine McCann, or would you rather not voice an opinion one way or the other?

[icabodcrane]

You're not reading my posts carefully.   I have said that given cadaver dogs are sometimes prone to handler bias (this is proven and, unless you can show that it was completely impossible for Eddie and Keela to also be susceptible to handler bias, means that it is a possibility to be considered) and that when this is weighed up against the possibility that the dogs correctly alerted to a dead child in the apartment, the hire car etc,  it is more likely IN MY OPINION that handler bias is the explanation.  Perhaps you would like to explain why you believe that the more plausible explanation is that the dogs alerted to the body of Madeleine McCann, or would you rather not voice an opinion one way or the other?

No,  I don't mind voicing my opinion at all

Like you,  I  'weigh up'  what we know about  this this case  (  this  case  and not others  )  when considering the cadaver dog alerts

And the one thing  that outweighs all others is the fact that the child has never been seen again

THAT  is what leads me to think the most likely explanation for the dog's alerting in apartment 5A is that he picked up the scent of the missing child's dead body 

It is the most obvious and logical conclusion to draw

[Alfred R Jones]

It's not the most logical conclusion because there is no supporting evidence of a dead body and  because we know for a fact that dogs can make mistakes.

[Benice]

Agreed it is not feasible. It was cadaver odour that changed Eddie's behaviour as soon as he got to 5A. He even alerted outside to it. The pants were contaminated and Eddie was chasing the scent in the underground car park. The scent coming from the car and the boot findings would've been the reason for Amaral's freezer to later moved out of PDL theory. That scent Eddie is trained to find is everywhere and connected to nobody else. Any detective would have them at the top of the possible suspects list.

With respect - you are still missing the point.  I maintain that there must have been some blood deposited somewhere at sometime by living people in one or more of the other apartments and cars.   

According to Grime both dogs alert to minute deposits of blood from a living person - even years after it has been deposited.   

So why didn't Eddie alert at any of those places where it is obvious that many people must have bled at some time or another over the years.      It doesn't make sense unless Grime was lying about his dog's skills -  and I don't believe he was.

You agreed that it wasn't feasible that not a speck of blood had ever been shed in the other apartments or cars. So why didn't Eddie alert?

[Alfred R Jones]

Eddie alerted to a tissue in the Jersey investigation which was explained by his handler as a tissue used for cleaning up after sex.  This alert was excused by this forum's own authority on the dogs as having blood on it (though there is no mention of blood in Grime's report), proving therefore that Eddie would alert to blood.

[icabodcrane]

It's not the most logical conclusion because there is no supporting evidence of a dead body and  because we know for a fact that dogs can make mistakes.

Well,  I disagree

A child is reported missing

A dog,  trained to bark when he picks up the scent of a dead body,   barks  in the apartment where the missing child  was last seen alive

The child is not seen again and no explanation is found for her disappearance

...   the most obvious and logical conclusion to draw is that the missing child died in the apartment

[Mr Gray]

Well,  I disagree

A child is reported missing

A dog,  trained to bark when he picks up the scent of a dead body,   barks  in the apartment where the missing child  was last seen alive

The child is not seen again and no explanation is found for her disappearance

...   the most obvious and logical conclusion to draw is that the missing child died in the apartment

Only in your opinion.....there are other factors that you are not taking into account...SY certainly do not agree with you

[Benice]

Only in your opinion.....there are other factors that you are not taking into account...SY certainly do not agree with you

Neither does Martin Grime.

[stephen25000]

When exactly have SY said that it isn't possible Madeleine is dead and/or did not possibly die in the apartment ?

[pathfinder73]

With respect - you are still missing the point.  I maintain that there must have been some blood deposited somewhere at sometime by living people in one or more of the other apartments and cars.   

According to Grime both dogs alert to minute deposits of blood from a living person - even years after it has been deposited.   

So why didn't Eddie alert at any of those places where it is obvious that many people must have bled at some time or another over the years.      It doesn't make sense unless Grime was lying about his dog's skills -  and I don't believe he was.

You agreed that it wasn't feasible that not a speck of blood had ever been shed in the other apartments or cars. So why didn't Eddie alert?

Are you having a laugh? Keela has to get in really close with her nose to alert to blood specs. Do you want Eddie's nose to be on the floor and walls of every inch of all apartments - man he would be in there for days and weeks doing one apartment  8-)(--) Cadaver scent is different so he goes in first to find that (that's his job) - that's why he was chasing it in the underground car park and his behaviour changed as soon as got to 5A. Keela is brought in next to find any blood at the bark alert locations. The reason Keela was used first on the clothes was to discard blood being the reason. Eddie goes in next and alerts to cadaver (it can't be blood).

[Alfred R Jones]

Well,  I disagree

A child is reported missing

A dog,  trained to bark when he picks up the scent of a dead body,   barks  in the apartment where the missing child  was last seen alive

The child is not seen again and no explanation is found for her disappearance

...   the most obvious and logical conclusion to draw is that the missing child died in the apartment

Except for that to be actually true a number of highly improbable factors have to be added to the plot.  Therefore we have to look at more logical and plausible alternative explanations.