Could Madeleine McCann still be alive and well after 8 years?

[faithlilly]

I don't say all, but certainly too many (who insist Madeleine is dead) do so from malign motives.

Such as ?

[stephen25000]

Such as ?

Indeed. ferryman needs to explain that.

[Eleanor]

This thread is going off topic.

Then, would anyone care to explain why they think Madeleine may be alive, regardless of the fact no trace of her has been found almost 9 years later ?

Because no trace of her has been found.

[stephen25000]

Because no trace of her has been found.

Yet another mobius loop on the forum.

That is precisely the reason why she won't be found alive.

[ShiningInLuz]

...

Then, would anyone care to explain why they think Madeleine may be alive, regardless of the fact no trace of her has been found almost 9 years later ?

1 Of the alternatives I can assess, pre-planned abduction is the most probable.
2 IF so, the split is then paedophilia v placement/replacement.
3 OG has done a lot of work on the paedophilia angle.  It looks like OG has found nothing down this route.  I will concede in advance that there are scenarios in this instance where no evidence would come to light.  I'm simply seeing a lot of activity that has occurred, but action does not appear to be on the horizon.
4 That leaves placement/replacement.  It is hardly high probability, merely the highest out of the alternatives.  Before anyone asks, there are vast swathes of the world where the Madeleine case has hardly made a ripple.

[jassi]

1 Of the alternatives I can assess, pre-planned abduction is the most probable.
2 IF so, the split is then paedophilia v placement/replacement.
3 OG has done a lot of work on the paedophilia angle.  It looks like OG has found nothing down this route.  I will concede in advance that there are scenarios in this instance where no evidence would come to light.  I'm simply seeing a lot of activity that has occurred, but action does not appear to be on the horizon.
4 That leaves placement/replacement.  It is hardly high probability, merely the highest out of the alternatives.  Before anyone asks, there are vast swathes of the world where the Madeleine case has hardly made a ripple.

Presumably this will have been as intensively investigated as paedophilia and yet, as far as we know, has produced nothing either.
So, at a bit of a stand regarding abduction, it would seem.

[stephen25000]

1 Of the alternatives I can assess, pre-planned abduction is the most probable.
2 IF so, the split is then paedophilia v placement/replacement.
3 OG has done a lot of work on the paedophilia angle.  It looks like OG has found nothing down this route.  I will concede in advance that there are scenarios in this instance where no evidence would come to light.  I'm simply seeing a lot of activity that has occurred, but action does not appear to be on the horizon.
4 That leaves placement/replacement.  It is hardly high probability, merely the highest out of the alternatives.  Before anyone asks, there are vast swathes of the world where the Madeleine case has hardly made a ripple.

I dismissed the pre planned some time ago and for a logical reason.

There was a younger female sibling who could have been instead. A younger child, fewer memories to deal with and more 'pliable' if given to a other family, which is one of the scenarios.

Likewise the lack of evidence of a break in.....

There is a lot more which I will deal with in due course, but wrk calls right now.

Have a good afternoon ShininginLuz.

[Eleanor]

Yet another mobius loop on the forum.

That is precisely the reason why she won't be found alive.

What is a Mobius Loop?  I can't be bothered to look it up.  But I hope it's not abusive.

[Alice Purjorick]

What is a Mobius Loop?  I can't be bothered to look it up.  But I hope it's not abusive.

1 Believe me, you do not want to know. Well you might do just so's you can plan out how to work it into the conversation at your next dinner party 
2 It's not.

[misty]

What is a Mobius Loop?  I can't be bothered to look it up.  But I hope it's not abusive.

https://www.math.hmc.edu/~gu/curves_and_surfaces/surfaces/moebius.html

(Could well be Stephen spent too much time as a child making paper chains)

[ShiningInLuz]

I dismissed the pre planned some time ago and for a logical reason.

There was a younger female sibling who could have been instead. A younger child, fewer memories to deal with and more 'pliable' if given to a other family, which is one of the scenarios.

Likewise the lack of evidence of a break in.....

There is a lot more which I will deal with in due course, but wrk calls right now.

Have a good afternoon ShininginLuz.

There was indeed a younger female sibling.  The question is - how was such pre-planning conducted?  There are but 2 options.

1 After the McCanns arrived in Luz, someone detected them/M, and in the space of under 6 days, constructed and executed a plan.  Probably along with having to get in touch with someone elsewhere at very short notice to 'auction' M.  Plus getting into 5A with no sign of a break-in.  Plus a lot of other ideas that don't make sense.

So, I consigned option 1 to the rubbish bin a long time ago.  If it happened that way, it was fluke after fluke after fluke.

2 Why would someone want a somewhat older child?  Eleanor has alluded to this earlier in this topic.  So what are the mechanics?  First, a lot more advance notice than 6 days.  Second, a reliable entry method.  Third, a reasonable expectation the parents would dine out AND leave the children behind.  Four, preferably a choice of targets.  On this point, if Ella O'Brien had gone missing that night, would we be discussing Madeleine, or her siblings?

Or would this be the Ella O'Brien forum?

[Alice Purjorick]

https://www.math.hmc.edu/~gu/curves_and_surfaces/surfaces/moebius.html

(Could well be Stephen spent too much time as a child making paper chains)

In the olden days  hoho they were used in mills and machine shops to change the direction of rotation of layshafts. See Arkwrights Mill in Cromford as an example or any machine tool shop up to mid 1950s.
They were also used as a cunning device on coal conveyors, and similar, to clean the carrying belts atomically (automatically to you) as there is only one working face (very cunning*).
See Ellie I told you you didn't want to know.

* so cunning in fact you could spot weld a tail to it and call it a fox.

[Eleanor]

https://www.math.hmc.edu/~gu/curves_and_surfaces/surfaces/moebius.html

(Could well be Stephen spent too much time as a child making paper chains)

It sounds a bit abusive to me.  Is Stephen accusing me of being twisted?

[Alice Purjorick]

1 Of the alternatives I can assess, pre-planned abduction is the most probable.
2 IF so, the split is then paedophilia v placement/replacement.
3 OG has done a lot of work on the paedophilia angle.  It looks like OG has found nothing down this route.  I will concede in advance that there are scenarios in this instance where no evidence would come to light.  I'm simply seeing a lot of activity that has occurred, but action does not appear to be on the horizon.
4 That leaves placement/replacement.  It is hardly high probability, merely the highest out of the alternatives.  Before anyone asks, there are vast swathes of the world where the Madeleine case has hardly made a ripple.

On that basis what do you think the driving factors were?
1 Why do it in Luz ?
2 Was the plan to steal a blonde haired girl of three to four years of age ? or
3 Was the plan to steal the first child of the approximate spec. who stayed in Appt 5A ? (from a thief's point of view 5A has pluses and minuses mostly minuses).
4 Who was the "client" ?
5 How long were the "gang"  going to hang around on the off-chance ?

It seems to me that analysis of those questions will eliminate preplanned as a goer.
If I can think of those basic questions I am sure the cops [MPS & PJ] can and will have investigated same early doors. No arrests so far so was it a non starter or are they still working up the idea?

[ShiningInLuz]

On that basis what do you think the driving factors were?
1 Why do it in Luz ?
2 Was the plan to steal a blonde haired girl of three to four years of age ? or
3 Was the plan to steal the first child of the approximate spec. who stayed in Appt 5A ? (from a thief's point of view 5A has pluses and minuses mostly minuses).
4 Who was the "client" ?
5 How long were the "gang"  going to hang around on the off-chance ?

It seems to me that analysis of those questions will eliminate preplanned as a goer.
If I can think of those basic questions I am sure the cops [MPS & PJ] can and will have investigated same early doors. No arrests so far so was it a non starter or are they still working up the idea?

1 No particular need or driver to do it in Luz.  Just happened that way.
2 Yes-ish.  A child, approx. 3, white, female.
3 No.  Not the first child.  If it had not happened in May 2007, it might have happened in June, July, August, or 2008. Or later.  Not with M but with another child.
4 No clue who the client was.  If I knew that then either I would be dead by now or OG would have been clamping handcuffs on the perp.
5 Was there a gang hanging around?  Not sure.  On the off-chance?  Probably not, assuming it was pre-planned.  More like dotting the i's and crossing the t's.