The PJ's Analysis states Kate discovered Madeleine gone at 10pm.

[Alice Purjorick]

Make it then.  Remember you will need to add in another absence from the table for Gerry after he returned from his 9pm check and his chat with Jez Wilkins.

According to Jez Wilkins the time of his meeting and chat with Gerry McCann was sometime between 20:45 and 21:15. Jez Wilkins being adamant he could not be more precise.
So that little anomaly needs to be bottomed out with some degree of accuracy otherwise it is yet another gold mine full of pyrites.
The T9 should perhaps be restyled "The ubiquitous 9" ?.

[pathfinder73]

If I'm not mistaken you have the child dead some hours before 10, so why with ample opportunity to move the child before then did they wait until after raising the alarm (PS: if this post is libel then so is PF's suggestion that one of the Tapas 9 had the opportunity to "do it" ).

Move to where in daylight with many people about? Much safer to find a place and move when it's dark and not many about except for good old Jez.

[John]

According to Jez Wilkins the time of his meeting and chat with Gerry McCann was sometime between 20:45 and 21:15. Jez Wilkins being adamant he could not be more precise.
So that little anomaly needs to be bottomed out with some degree of accuracy otherwise it is yet another gold mine full of pyrites.
The T9 should perhaps be restyled "The ubiquitous 9" ?.

I think Jez was genuine in what he reported and had no way of recalling the time.  Fortunately interpolating between other statements we can establish the Gerry/Jez/Jane encounter at about 9.15pm.

[Alfie]

My view is that the decision to do the check was made at 10pm give or take a few minutes.  Allow a few minutes more for Kate to wander up to 5a from the tapas restaurant, check on the children, find Madeleine missing, search the room and the rest of the apartment and that leaves the alert some time around 10.05pm to 10.10pm.  Coincidentally, this happens to be just about the time the Smiths encountered their mystery man.

This is not just your view, but the view also of 2 police forces.  Even Amaral conceded in an interview that it was not possible for Smithman to be Gerry.  But is seems that this issue will run and run because some people want to believe.  They want to believe it is possible that Gerry was Smithman but it is not possible.

[John]

This is not just your view, but the view also of 2 police forces.  Even Amaral conceded in an interview that it was not possible for Smithman to be Gerry.  But is seems that this issue will run and run because some people want to believe.  They want to believe it is possible that Gerry was Smithman but it is not possible.

I think if the Smiths had met Gerry they would have known it and recalled such in their statements.  Even Martin Smith admitted that his identification was based on the way the child was carried and nothing else.  Raises the question of course as to how they were able to create two e-fits in the first place?  Were they actually based on some innocent association with GM whose picture had been widely disseminated by the Press by that stage?

Again, a reconstruction with the Smiths taking part and GM standing in for Smithman would have cleared this up once and for all.

[G-Unit]

If anything, much of the above goes to show that when it comes to timelines that most witnesses cannot be precise.  To take this to the extreme, at least one waiter is recorded as stating that the alarm was raised as early as 9.30pm.  We know this was an impossibility when we look at the vast majority of the other statements. One more reason why a reconstruction should have been undertaken within days.

What is clear is that 10pm was by no means the agreed time;

Maria Rosa says an English tourist arrived at the Millenium at 22.00 asking if anyone had seen a child.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARIA_ROSA.htm

Emma Wilding says she heard about the disappearance at 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

Ricardo Alexandre da Luz Oliveira says the whole group had gone from the table at 21.45
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RICARDO-A-D-L-OLIVEIRA.htm

Barend Jan Jacob Weijdom says he heard the news before 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/BAREND_WEIJDOM.htm

At 21H20, Executive Chef A. E. G. F. P. heard some clamour, which made him leave toward the restaurant, a few meters away, and was then informed that a child had disappeared.

At around 21:40, he left the restaurant passing through the same esplanade where moments before, he had seen the same table occupied by the three couples, empty, who had left in the meanwhile various items, principally clothing. He was told by his colleagues that the child who had disappeared was a child of one of those couples;

Property manager B. J. J. W. heard about the news being investigated on the evening of 3rd May at about 21.30 - 21.40 from P.B., a Dutchman and owner of the Atlantico restaurant, who passed by the witness near the Baptista supermarket, in P da L and who asked for his help in searching for Madeleine. He then went to the place where the events occurred which was at about 21.45 - 21.50.

Dinner finished at around 21H45 and some minutes passed where waiter R. A.E D. L. O. looked towards the table but saw no one - his colleague told him that all the guests of that table left rapidly and abruptly. He remembers having heard shouts in the direction of the McCann apartment;
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_INFORMATION.htm

[John]

Witnesses usually struggle to recall exact times so they revert to the hour or half hour, thus why 10pm features in many of the statements even though the actual time was minutes afterwards.

The only way a witness can recall an exact time is if something occurred which made him or her check their watch.  Even then, how many people's watch is set at the right time?

If I were to ask everyone what time they got out of bed yesterday would they be able to oblige to the nearest minute?  I know I certainly couldn't do so to the nearest half hour.  Any takers?   

[Alfie]

What is clear is that 10pm was by no means the agreed time;

Maria Rosa says an English tourist arrived at the Millenium at 22.00 asking if anyone had seen a child.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARIA_ROSA.htm

Emma Wilding says she heard about the disappearance at 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

Ricardo Alexandre da Luz Oliveira says the whole group had gone from the table at 21.45
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/RICARDO-A-D-L-OLIVEIRA.htm

Barend Jan Jacob Weijdom says he heard the news before 22.00
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/BAREND_WEIJDOM.htm

At 21H20, Executive Chef A. E. G. F. P. heard some clamour, which made him leave toward the restaurant, a few meters away, and was then informed that a child had disappeared.

At around 21:40, he left the restaurant passing through the same esplanade where moments before, he had seen the same table occupied by the three couples, empty, who had left in the meanwhile various items, principally clothing. He was told by his colleagues that the child who had disappeared was a child of one of those couples;

Property manager B. J. J. W. heard about the news being investigated on the evening of 3rd May at about 21.30 - 21.40 from P.B., a Dutchman and owner of the Atlantico restaurant, who passed by the witness near the Baptista supermarket, in P da L and who asked for his help in searching for Madeleine. He then went to the place where the events occurred which was at about 21.45 - 21.50.

Dinner finished at around 21H45 and some minutes passed where waiter R. A.E D. L. O. looked towards the table but saw no one - his colleague told him that all the guests of that table left rapidly and abruptly. He remembers having heard shouts in the direction of the McCann apartment;
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/TIME_LINE_INFORMATION.htm

It was agreed by the Police after studying all the evidence that Kate did her final check at 10pm - it's in the report.  Any reason why you think you know better?

[G-Unit]

It was agreed by the Police after studying all the evidence that Kate did her final check at 10pm - it's in the report.  Any reason why you think you know better?

It's not a case of 'who knows best' it's a case of why they decided on 10pm. They don't explain why, but they certainly discounted quite a lot of evidence which contradicts that time.

[Angelo222]

Witnesses usually struggle to recall exact times so they revert to the hour or half hour, thus why 10pm features in many of the statements even though the actual time was minutes afterwards.

The only way a witness can recall an exact time is if something occurred which made him or her check their watch.  Even then, how many people's watch is set at the right time?

If I were to ask everyone what time they got out of bed yesterday would they be able to oblige to the nearest minute?  I know I certainly couldn't do so to the nearest half hour.  Any takers?   

A good point and try remembering the same thing days or even weeks back.  Nobody can ever be sure the exact time of any event unless it is detailed and documented at the time.  I am posting this at 3.27pm on Monday 10 October 2016 so in years to come I can still look back and say so.  That is why police officers have note books and use them often.

[Alfie]

It's not a case of 'who knows best' it's a case of why they decided on 10pm. They don't explain why, but they certainly discounted quite a lot of evidence which contradicts that time.

They don't have to justify their reasons for arriving at the conclusion that Kate performed her final check at 10pm, but that is what they concluded based on ALL witness statements.  They are the professionals, they are used to dealing with witness statements and piecing together a timeline, so it's about time you tried to come to terms with the fact that Gerry could not have been elsewhere at the time the alarm was raised.  There is no question or query about the time of the alarm in their report (thought they have recommendations about other aspects of it) so they must have been pretty sure of themselves on this point. 

And even if the Police are completely wrong  and the alarm was raised 15 minutes earlier or 15 minutes later than 10pm it would still be verging on the impossible logistically for Gerry to be Smithman anyway - though I don't suppose you would agree with that either.

[Alfie]

Witnesses usually struggle to recall exact times so they revert to the hour or half hour, thus why 10pm features in many of the statements even though the actual time was minutes afterwards.

The only way a witness can recall an exact time is if something occurred which made him or her check their watch.  Even then, how many people's watch is set at the right time?

If I were to ask everyone what time they got out of bed yesterday would they be able to oblige to the nearest minute?  I know I certainly couldn't do so to the nearest half hour.  Any takers?   

Getting out of bed in the morning is not a good example.  My alarm goes off at 7.15am every morning and I am on my feet and in the shower by 7.20am. 

[Benice]

They went running off and the bar staff didn't know what was happening except one was left at the table. After that they were out searching so unless you reconstruct where everyone was then you cannot say that one didn't have the opportunity to do it.

You are completely missing the point.    How could Gerry know beforehand that for instance a couple of waiters were not going to be at their table just as Kate came running back - who could immediately ring the police.    How could he know beforehand that a police car was not a mere 5 mins drive away?

You say the bar staff didn't know what was happening but how could Gerry know beforehand that that was going to be the case?

You theory requires Gerry to be able to see into the future at the time he was devising his 'cunning' plan.

Surely you can see the flaw in that?

[Angelo222]

Getting out of bed in the morning is not a good example.  My alarm goes off at 7.15am every morning and I am on my feet and in the shower by 7.20am.  Most people have a morning routine that follows the same time, I'm surprised that you, as a farmer, don't!

You are a slave to routine Alf.

[Alfie]

You are a slave to routine Alf.

Most working people are.