Author Topic: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?  (Read 149975 times)

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Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #150 on: January 21, 2017, 05:53:19 PM »
This thread must be somekind of record.
10 pages before it is sidelined up the Dogs, Amaral and Grime dead end by the usual suspects.
Oh well it is Saturday I suppose... the traditional 5B's day. Birds, Booze, Brawls,Baths(Tukish type)and B--- U--.
 *&*%£
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #151 on: January 21, 2017, 06:08:16 PM »
and anyone who examies the video will soon realise that Grime was totally wrong on that. 

Eddie did NOT alert to cCat but to the pile of papers/ folders on top of the cupboard
Additionally he had already played with cCat without alerting. 
I can sort of understand Grime not realizing that Eddie was alerting to the ?folders on top of the cupboard
But forgetting that prior to that, Eddie had played with cCat, even tossing him in the air, and not alerting then, was a big BOO BOO

IMHO.


yes angelo has agreed that grime was wrong re the alert to cuddle cat so what other alerts were wrong

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #152 on: January 21, 2017, 09:55:19 PM »

yes angelo has agreed that grime was wrong re the alert to cuddle cat so what other alerts were wrong
The alert to Sean's "Up up and away" top that was claimed to be Madeleine's without proof elicited an alert but it was the last item placed on the ground and never seen to be removed from the cardboard box so that was a likely ruse too.  No forensic tests were done on it either.
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Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #153 on: January 21, 2017, 10:59:38 PM »
Did you offer an example of a casual set?

It is in post one on this very thread.
To make it simple however:
A causal set is an effect and its immediate causes. As a minimum there will be one action cause and one condition cause. There may be more of each. The whole has no beginning or end but you may decide where you wish to start, in which direction you wish to go and where you wish to stop. It is a relative norm to start at the undesirable effect and work from it.
In this instance the chosen start point would be the absence of the girl in the apartment, the "undesirable effect". There are two obvious condition causes to satisfy but we are light on action causes and without an action cause nothing happens. All causes require supporting evidence or a question mark indicating a lack of essential information for whatever reason.
Easy peasy as someone once said.

"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #154 on: January 21, 2017, 11:02:29 PM »
It is in post one on this very thread.
To make it simple however:
A causal set is an effect and its immediate causes. As a minimum there will be one action cause and one condition cause. There may be more of each. The whole has no beginning or end but you may decide where you wish to start, in which direction you wish to go and where you wish to stop. It is a relative norm to start at the undesirable effect and work from it.
In this instance the chosen start point would be the absence of the girl in the apartment, the "undesirable effect". There are two obvious condition causes to satisfy but we are light on action causes and without an action cause nothing happens. All causes require supporting evidence or a question mark indicating a lack of essential information for whatever reason.
Easy peasy as someone once said.
A causal set is an effect and its immediate causes.  Casual set = cause and effect.

Wikipedia on Causality ".... the chicken or the egg causality dilemma, i.e. "which came first, the chicken or the egg?".
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 11:06:26 PM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #155 on: January 21, 2017, 11:20:37 PM »
A causal set is an effect and its immediate causes.  Casual set = cause and effect.

Wikipedia on Causality ".... the chicken or the egg causality dilemma, i.e. "which came first, the chicken or the egg?".

So?
What yer tryin' to say Cobber.
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #156 on: January 21, 2017, 11:25:17 PM »
So?
What yer tryin' to say Cobber.
I think I was confirming I now know what you meant by "causal set".   I should have Googled it and not bothered you.  I should of course say thanks for replying.
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Offline sadie

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #157 on: January 22, 2017, 12:32:38 AM »
The alert to Sean's "Up up and away" top that was claimed to be Madeleine's without proof elicited an alert but it was the last item placed on the ground and never seen to be removed from the cardboard box so that was a likely ruse too.  No forensic tests were done on it either.
Eddie only gave an alert to either blood from a living person, Cadaver Odour or pork.   

It was essential that Keela be used to determine which of these Eddie was alerting to.  However Keela was not used to decide which of these Eddie was alerting to.   So it was an indeterminate alert. 

Therefore no conclusions, Eddie could have been any one of the three above.



And then, of course, no forensics either.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #158 on: January 22, 2017, 12:36:35 AM »
It only elicited an alert of either blood from a living person, Cadaver Odour or pork.   

Keela was not used to decide which of these Eddie was alerting to.   So it was an indeterminate alert.  Could have been any one of the three above.
Even more support that it might have been a ruse then, for it wasn't double checked.  In my theory they simply wanted the video image of Eddie alerting to the top to shock Kate into confessing (ruse).
« Last Edit: January 22, 2017, 12:43:13 AM by Robittybob1 »
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Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #159 on: January 22, 2017, 10:18:43 AM »
Even more support that it might have been a ruse then, for it wasn't double checked.  In my theory they simply wanted the video image of Eddie alerting to the top to shock Kate into confessing (ruse).
Hey now, there's a thought.  After all some believe crecheman was invented by the police to put pressure on the McCanns, why not invent dog alerts for the same reason?

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #160 on: January 22, 2017, 11:09:16 AM »
Hey now, there's a thought.  After all some believe crecheman was invented by the police to put pressure on the McCanns, why not invent dog alerts for the same reason?
Does that increase the pressure on the McCanns?  I don't see how that works.
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Alfie

  • Guest
Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #161 on: January 22, 2017, 11:16:46 AM »
Does that increase the pressure on the McCanns?  I don't see how that works.
Which - the dog alerts or the supposed invention of Crecheman?  If the former I would have thought that was obvious, if the latter then you'd have to ask those who actually believe it to explain.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #162 on: January 22, 2017, 11:21:11 AM »
Which - the dog alerts or the supposed invention of Crecheman?  If the former I would have thought that was obvious, if the latter then you'd have to ask those who actually believe it to explain.
Well I off to bed so maybe someone explains.  Cheers.
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #163 on: January 22, 2017, 05:28:56 PM »
Does that increase the pressure on the McCanns?  I don't see how that works.
How does "crecheman was invented by the police" increase the pressure on the McCanns?
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: Is there a plausible, logical theory of abduction?
« Reply #164 on: January 22, 2017, 05:45:20 PM »
If there were lost keys to Block G5 any incident points toward an abduction.

http://textusa1.rssing.com/chan-26005015/all_p4.html and other sources mentioned.
"The Sunday Express tracked down the maintenance worker who allegedly lost the keys, 29-year-old Tiago da Silva, who lives a few miles from Luz in Lagos, a pretty coastal town.

When we put it to him that keys were lost, he paused momentarily before saying: “That is not the case. I can’t remember any keys going missing. The keys in maintenance were kept in a safe and nobody could get to them.””

However an unnamed colleague insisted:

“I know what he told me at the time. The keys for all the blocks were kept on a cable and clearly marked.

He said he had lost the keys to block five. He told me in the same week when the little girl went missing. I am sure of this.

From my memory I think they were replaced with duplicate keys for the apartments which were held at reception. I remember all this very clearly. He did not want us to tell people about it, so we didn’t say anything.”

This, according to Sunday Express suggested “the kidnap was well planned and executed using stolen keys.”

Tiago da Silva, is in our opinion, the green plant in this group’s bouquet. To show Swinging BH Deciders that the burglary thesis hasn’t been abandoned completely.

But another way to look at Tiago da Silva being part of the list would be to highlight that from the Ocean Club 2 managers and 2 maintenance personnel were questioned, thus highlighting the maintenance area. You know, shutter fixings and washing machine operation lessons."
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