Author Topic: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?  (Read 30974 times)

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Offline Robittybob1

How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« on: February 28, 2018, 04:34:56 AM »
Is it possible to assess how accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry McCann?

Here is a video of a classic misidentification case.  Are any parts of that repeated in the McCann case?

https://youtu.be/DZsckuKiH94  "Eyewitness Identification - Getting it Right"

Are there other studies showing what could have gone wrong in this particular case?

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Offline Carana

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2018, 08:54:37 AM »
Is it possible to assess how accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry McCann?

Here is a video of a classic misidentification case.  Are any parts of that repeated in the McCann case?

https://youtu.be/DZsckuKiH94  "Eyewitness Identification - Getting it Right"

Are there other studies showing what could have gone wrong in this particular case?

I (re)posted several links on UK research into eyewitness ID a couple of weeks ago. Although both present a number of caveat concerning bad practice to avoid, the UK ones had a few other pointers to avoid.

IMO, I could imagine several issues in the case of MS:

a. His 60-80% suspicion was based on how the man held the child while walking downwards.
b. His wife apparently agreed that Smithman was of a similar stature.
c. Smithman wasn't wearing glasses.
d. The child was of a similar age and general description (aside from whoever noticed that the sleeves were long).
e. Gerry had just been made arguido, with all the negative tabloid (and ill-informed broadcast) coverage leading up to that, including "full DNA match" in the boot, etc.
f. Amaral was apparently only intending to get Martin over. Martin may not have wondered why that may be.
g. Amaral also said that it wouldn't be a physical line-up, so what would he have been shown, if anything? A rerun of Gerry walking down the plane steps?
h. How could it possibly be double-blind?
i. Would Martin have been sufficiently aware of the significance of any wording in the statement taken? I.e., would the fact that his impression was based solely on the way the man carried the child... or would that have been fudged over?
j. What would the PJ instructions have been? Would the PJ, at that stage, to be able to avoid conveying a sense of expectation of a positive ID, or positive feedback?
k. Would the fact of travelling all the way over have any subconscious influence (a sense of accomplishment / not wasting his / PJ time)?


Offline jassi

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2018, 09:26:24 AM »
As it didn't happen, points e-k aren't really relevant. We should concentrate on what did happen. IMO.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Brietta

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2018, 10:09:34 AM »
Is it possible to assess how accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry McCann?

Here is a video of a classic misidentification case.  Are any parts of that repeated in the McCann case?

https://youtu.be/DZsckuKiH94  "Eyewitness Identification - Getting it Right"

Are there other studies showing what could have gone wrong in this particular case?

— States that it is not possible for him to recognise the individual in person or by photograph.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

What changed from being unable to provide a description to the police?  We know for a fact there was saturation media coverage ... might that not have helped plant a recollection?
"All I'm going to say is that we've conducted a very serious investigation and there's no indication that Madeleine McCann's parents are connected to her disappearance. On the other hand, we have a lot of evidence pointing out that Christian killed her," Wolter told the "Friday at 9"....

Offline Carana

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2018, 10:10:16 AM »
As it didn't happen, points e-k aren't really relevant. We should concentrate on what did happen. IMO.

The whole thread is hypothetical as presumably Martin never came over for the ID anyway.

Point e (Gerry made arguido & negative coverage, including full DNA match) certainly happened, unless you're disputing that.

Point f (The PJ's intention - or at least a preliminary enquiry as to availabilty - that only extended to bringing over Martin is recorded in the files.)

In his book, Amaral mentions "Smiths" (plural):

We decide to get the Smiths back to the Algarve, for a formal identification of Gerry McCann - by means of televised images, certainly - direct confrontation being impossible - and possibly proceed to a reconstruction of the events of the night of May 3rd. The National Director of the Judiciary police agrees, the process is set in motion, all the details are sorted out; all that remains is to choose the hotel where they will be put up.


However, according to the files, this intention appears to have only extended to Martin.

On this date I state for the files that at about 12.12 I had telephone contact with the witness Martin Smith, by means of phone number ********* who referred to the communication he made on 20-09-2007 to the British authorities, that confirms his sighting and showing his full availability to travel to Portugal with the aim of making statements and collaborating with this police in all the diligences that could be considered necessary concerning these events.

Portimao, 27th September 2007

Signed

Inspector Paiva

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

Point g (see above).

Points h-k are questions on my part based on the preceding points and the video clip that we've been invited to consider, plus the UK clips on the subject that I've posted several times.

Offline jassi

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2018, 10:14:46 AM »
The whole thread is hypothetical as presumably Martin never came over for the ID anyway.

Point e (Gerry made arguido & negative coverage, including full DNA match) certainly happened, unless you're disputing that.

Point f (The PJ's intention - or at least a preliminary enquiry as to availabilty - that only extended to bringing over Martin is recorded in the files.)

In his book, Amaral mentions "Smiths" (plural):

We decide to get the Smiths back to the Algarve, for a formal identification of Gerry McCann - by means of televised images, certainly - direct confrontation being impossible - and possibly proceed to a reconstruction of the events of the night of May 3rd. The National Director of the Judiciary police agrees, the process is set in motion, all the details are sorted out; all that remains is to choose the hotel where they will be put up.


However, according to the files, this intention appears to have only extended to Martin.

On this date I state for the files that at about 12.12 I had telephone contact with the witness Martin Smith, by means of phone number ********* who referred to the communication he made on 20-09-2007 to the British authorities, that confirms his sighting and showing his full availability to travel to Portugal with the aim of making statements and collaborating with this police in all the diligences that could be considered necessary concerning these events.

Portimao, 27th September 2007

Signed

Inspector Paiva

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm

Point g (see above).

Points h-k are questions on my part based on the preceding points and the video clip that we've been invited to consider, plus the UK clips on the subject that I've posted several times.

That is what I meant by 'it didn't happen'
Gerry being made arguido isn't relevant to the identification as the visit didn't happen
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Robittybob1

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2018, 10:25:24 AM »
I (re)posted several links on UK research into eyewitness ID a couple of weeks ago. Although both present a number of caveat concerning bad practice to avoid, the UK ones had a few other pointers to avoid.

IMO, I could imagine several issues in the case of MS:

a. His 60-80% suspicion was based on how the man held the child while walking downwards.
b. His wife apparently agreed that Smithman was of a similar stature.
c. Smithman wasn't wearing glasses.
d. The child was of a similar age and general description (aside from whoever noticed that the sleeves were long).
e. Gerry had just been made arguido, with all the negative tabloid (and ill-informed broadcast) coverage leading up to that, including "full DNA match" in the boot, etc.
f. Amaral was apparently only intending to get Martin over. Martin may not have wondered why that may be.
g. Amaral also said that it wouldn't be a physical line-up, so what would he have been shown, if anything? A rerun of Gerry walking down the plane steps?
h. How could it possibly be double-blind?
i. Would Martin have been sufficiently aware of the significance of any wording in the statement taken? I.e., would the fact that his impression was based solely on the way the man carried the child... or would that have been fudged over?
j. What would the PJ instructions have been? Would the PJ, at that stage, to be able to avoid conveying a sense of expectation of a positive ID, or positive feedback?
k. Would the fact of travelling all the way over have any subconscious influence (a sense of accomplishment / not wasting his / PJ time)?

"a. His 60-80% suspicion was based on how the man held the child while walking downwards."  Did Martin Smith see Smithman carrying a child down steps in PdL?

"b. His wife apparently agreed that Smithman was of a similar stature."  Studies have shown that confirmation even if wrong boost confidence but not reliability.

"c. Smithman wasn't wearing glasses."  OK what was the point?

"d. The child was of a similar age and general description (aside from whoever noticed that the sleeves were long)."  So is Martin Smith adding up all his family's recollections and adding them to his own memory - reconstructed memory.

"e. Gerry had just been made arguido, with all the negative tabloid (and ill-informed broadcast) coverage leading up to that, including "full DNA match" in the boot, etc."  A know factor in inaccurate identifications.  Nodding at the suspect.

"f. Amaral was apparently only intending to get Martin over. Martin may not have wondered why that may be."  Possible source of error.

"g. Amaral also said that it wouldn't be a physical line-up, so what would he have been shown, if anything? A rerun of Gerry walking down the plane steps?"  Not relevant to the actual Smithman situation.

"j. What would the PJ instructions have been? Would the PJ, at that stage, to be able to avoid conveying a sense of expectation of a positive ID, or positive feedback? "  Probably not.

"

"h. How could it possibly be double-blind?"  Whatever they did to Gerry and could do with 5 others,  Get some PJ not involved with the case to run the reconstruction.


"i. Would Martin have been sufficiently aware of the significance of any wording in the statement taken? I.e., would the fact that his impression was based solely on the way the man carried the child... or would that have been fudged over?"  Who knows!


"k. Would the fact of travelling all the way over have any subconscious influence (a sense of accomplishment / not wasting his / PJ time)?"  Could be a factor.  There were studies that emphasised the importance and that result in errors.




Moderation
John has instructed all moderators to take a very strong line with posters who constantly breach the rules of this forum.  This sniping, goading, name calling and other various forms of disruption will cease.

Offline Carana

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2018, 10:26:45 AM »
That is what I meant by 'it didn't happen'
Gerry being made arguido isn't relevant to the identification as the visit didn't happen

You've lost me there, Jassi, unless you mean that the entire thread is irrelevant.

Smithman is the context, but the topic, IMO, is the potential fallibility of identifying suspects, and pointers as to how to improve reliability. Ensuring a double-blind exercise being one of them.


Offline Robittybob1

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2018, 10:30:07 AM »
That is what I meant by 'it didn't happen'
Gerry being made arguido isn't relevant to the identification as the visit didn't happen
But Martin Smith still has not changed his mind about identifying Gerry.  What GA was planning to do is anyone's guess.
Moderation
John has instructed all moderators to take a very strong line with posters who constantly breach the rules of this forum.  This sniping, goading, name calling and other various forms of disruption will cease.

Offline Carana

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2018, 10:33:04 AM »

(snip)

"g. Amaral also said that it wouldn't be a physical line-up, so what would he have been shown, if anything? A rerun of Gerry walking down the plane steps?"  Not relevant to the actual Smithman situation.


IMO, point G is potentially relevant:
"We decide to get the Smiths back to the Algarve, for a formal identification of Gerry McCann - by means of televised images, certainly - direct confrontation being impossible.."

Televised images of what? 

Offline jassi

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2018, 10:37:05 AM »
But Martin Smith still has not changed his mind about identifying Gerry. What GA was planning to do is anyone's guess.

Absolutely, but he was removed before he could implement his plan.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Robittybob1

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2018, 10:42:31 AM »
Absolutely, but he was removed before he could implement his plan.
That is crucial point but the investigation could still carry on the lines it was going prior to his removal.  I'm going to have to look aback over the previous thread for I think we covered their intentions. for the reconstruction.
Moderation
John has instructed all moderators to take a very strong line with posters who constantly breach the rules of this forum.  This sniping, goading, name calling and other various forms of disruption will cease.

Offline Carana

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2018, 10:53:20 AM »
But Martin Smith still has not changed his mind about identifying Gerry.  What GA was planning to do is anyone's guess.

Is asserting that one stands by what one said to the police and the media at the time the same as one's current thinking? The bone of contention (on the other thread) was that it had been alleged that Martinn had retracted his statement.

Russell expressed doubts as to whether he could have been mistaken about seeing RM that night, but in the end also chose to stand by his original recollection.

In both cases, the perceived implications of arguido status may (or may not) have influenced recollections.

Just as some may argue that changing one's mind, now, that Murat / Gerry may not have been the people in question after all could be interpreted as potential media influence in the opposite direction.

IMO.

Offline jassi

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2018, 11:06:31 AM »
Indeed, thwarted everywhere.
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Robittybob1

Re: How accurate would be Martin Smith's ID of Gerry MaCann?
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2018, 11:24:27 AM »
IMO, point G is potentially relevant:
"We decide to get the Smiths back to the Algarve, for a formal identification of Gerry McCann - by means of televised images, certainly - direct confrontation being impossible.."

Televised images of what?
Surely "televised images" is a translation error.   I thought that he meant something like a photographic image in the form of a life sized cardboard cut out.

You can buy them off E-bay.  https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Life-Size-Celebrity-Cardboard-Cutouts-Standees-Various-ones-/322834075021
Moderation
John has instructed all moderators to take a very strong line with posters who constantly breach the rules of this forum.  This sniping, goading, name calling and other various forms of disruption will cease.