Missing children and the statistics.

[Robittybob1]

Well if 99.9% of missing children are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it?  Can stats be applied like this. 

Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly.  I'm waiting to see it.

I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem  Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away.  Each category will have its own statistics.  But are they related.

In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?

The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.

Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.

The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.

Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.

However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781

In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?

Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help.   Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?

[Robittybob1]

The other problem is under reporting:
"The problem is that many attempts go unreported, said Mr Newiss. Certainly, the 2008 study claimed that only 33% of incidents it recorded were reported to the police.

He estimates that one in every 100 children face an abduction attempt at some point in their childhood or teenage years.

"The police numbers are the tip of the iceberg," he said." 

So if we use the Portuguese figures what is the rate of under-reporting there?

[Robittybob1]

And the next step in analysis the figures is understand the age group categories. 

"Statistics New Zealand figures show a total of 84 children, including 36 teenagers aged 15 to 19, 21 children aged 10 to 14, 12 children aged 5 to 9, and 15 pre-schoolers aged 0 to 4, were kidnapped in the 2016 year to September.

That's up on the same period in 2015, when 81 children were reported abducted or kidnapped."  http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11769758
OK that is for abducted kids in NZ, we don't know if Madeleine was abducted but was suggested in May last year "Madeleine was abducted" (Mark Rowley from SY)

[Robittybob1]

The International Centre for Missing and Exploited Children website details the same problems as I have outlined
https://www.icmec.org/missing-children-statistics/

1.  "The lack of a common definition of “missing child,” and a common response to the issue, results in few reliable statistics on the scope of the problem around the world.

2.  "In many countries, statistics on missing children are not even available; and, unfortunately, even available statistics may be inaccurate due to: under-reporting/under-recognition; inflation; incorrect database entry of case information; and deletion of records once a case is closed."

[Robittybob1]

What did Yvonne Martin say in her statement?

"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."

I don't think there is any study that would show such a high incidence of the  family being involved.  Maybe a very high proportion of murdered kids of the under 5 maybe related to family involvement.   Did she mean "murdered kids" rather than "missing kids"?  Is stranger abduction going to be around 1 in 10,000 cases of missing kids?

I doubt that very much?  There are so many ways these stats are presented anyone will have trouble  understanding the stats easily.

[Robittybob1]

Here are some USA figures from https://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/22/us/missing-children-fast-facts/index.html


"The Second National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway and Thrownaway Children (NISMART-2), released by the Department of Justice in 2002 and spanning the years 1997 to 1999, reported that of the 797,500 children reported missing in a one-year period, 203,900 were abducted by family members and 58,200 were abducted by non-relatives. One-hundred and fifteen were classified as being taken by a stranger."

OK that is just 115  out of nearly 800,000 missing kids that were abducted by strangers or just over the 1 in 10,000 but looking at the total of the family and those known to the family it does not come to anywhere the total of 797,500, in fact 262100   out of 797500   32.86520376%  so abducted kids is only about 33% of the missing kids, the  rest are runaways and throwaways.

I wonder what proportion of missing kids die due to accidental deaths?

Wikipedia has the category but not the proportion of cases.  "Lost, injured or otherwise missing children: Disappearances for no apparent reason of minors who got lost (e.g. young children at the seaside in summer) or hurt themselves and cannot be found immediately (e.g. accidents during sport activities, at youth camps, etc.), as well as children whose reason for disappearing has not yet been determined."

I wonder what category those kids are listed: "as well as children whose reason for disappearing has not yet been determined"?

[Mr Gray]

Well if 99.9% of child abductions are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it?  Can stats be applied like this. 

Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly.  I'm waiting to see it.

I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem  Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away.  Each category will have its own statistics.  But are they related.

In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?

The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.

Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.

The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.

Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.

However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781

In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?

Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help.   Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?

do you really not understand how to apply the statisics

[Carana]

What did Yvonne Martin say in her statement?

"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."

I don't think there is any study that would show such a high incidence of the  family being involved.  Maybe a very high proportion of murdered kids of the under 5 maybe related to family involvement.   Did she mean "murdered kids" rather than "missing kids"?  Is stranger abduction going to be around 1 in 10,000 cases of missing kids?

I doubt that very much?  There are so many ways these stats are presented anyone will have trouble  understanding the stats easily.

Rob, that is what a police officer wrote. There's no way of knowing whether she really did say that or whether the officer misunderstood. If she did say that, did she mean it figuratively (as in "many")? What is meant by "missing"? All categories? Time-frame: missing for a few hours... years?

We have a few threads floating around somewhere on the general subject of missing / abducted kids.

[slartibartfast]

Well if 99.9% of child abductions are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it?  Can stats be applied like this. 

Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly.  I'm waiting to see it.

I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem  Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away.  Each category will have its own statistics.  But are they related.

In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?

The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.

Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.

The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.

Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.

However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781

In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?

Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help.   Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?

Rob, statistics based on previous instances without other evidence give the police a focus for their investigations as it gives a likelihood of the who/what and why.

[Carana]

Rob, statistics based on previous instances without other evidence give the police a focus for their investigations as it gives a likelihood of the who/what and why.

I agree with that in principle, and I presume that the expression about clearing the ground under one's feet is precisely that.

However, Rob's question was about her alleged assertion that some (including myself) find somewhat mysterious.

[Robittybob1]

Rob, that is what a police officer wrote. There's no way of knowing whether she really did say that or whether the officer misunderstood. If she did say that, did she mean it figuratively (as in "many")? What is meant by "missing"? All categories? Time-frame: missing for a few hours... years?

We have a few threads floating around somewhere on the general subject of missing / abducted kids.

It is a signed statement "No more was said. Reads, ratifies, signs." So I do believe that is pretty much what she said.  She obviously was confused by the stats for sure, for only 33% of missing kids are abducted to begin with, but by the time she appeared on the scene it was 15 hours later and the interview with the police was later still  (14/Nov/2007 if I understood it correctly), so is this delay affecting the type of missing child case.  By that stage Madeleine isn't still "just sleeping under a tree".  It is a more serious case by this stage.  I don't know if there are studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against time.

[Robittybob1]

do you really not understand how to apply the statistics

I started this thread to give you the opportunity to teach me "how to apply the statistics".  The floor is yours.

[Mr Gray]

I started this thread to give you the opportunity to teach me "how to apply the statistics".  The floor is yours.

I think everybody understands how to apply statistics apart from you..im not here to teach you something so simple

[Robittybob1]

I think everybody understands how to apply statistics apart from you..im not here to teach you something so simple

Were you going to give Faithlilly the same answer if she had started the thread?  You wanted her to start a thread.

Should there be studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against the time passed since they were last seen?

[Mr Gray]

Were you going to give Faithlilly the same answer if she had started the thread?  You wanted her to start a thread.

Should there be studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against the time passed since they were last seen?

since then you have criticised my knowledge of statistics and now asked me to teach you to apply it..